PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro is demonic 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS, Euro

[Cascadia_Wx]

Chilly raw and wet day here. Light to moderate rain at times and gusty east winds early. 49/37 spread with over a quarter inch of rainfall. We are now over 4.5” for the month. So nice to see a wet March.

The low was actually set at midnight since the morning low was just 44. Great to see the beat roll on with sub-40 lows.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z Euro 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z Euro 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

California continues to combat global warming. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Wish I had taken a screenshot of Mark’s 7-day from last Thursday or so. It showed most of this week with partly sunny or sunny skies and high temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. My how things changed.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

00Z Euro ain't backing down on the April snow.

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z Euro 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

So gorgeous.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

00Z Euro ain't backing down on the April snow.

I like it.

[Gradient Keeper]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wish I had taken a screenshot of Mark’s 7-day from last Thursday or so. It showed most of this week with partly sunny or sunny skies and high temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. My how things changed.

I got your back.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I got your back.

Yup! That’s the exact one I was thinking of. Amazing how the models collapsed for this week. Especially the Euro.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yup! That’s the exact one I was thinking of. Amazing how the models collapsed for this week. Especially the Euro.

Yeah it really was. A colossal failure.

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS washes out the second system early next week and then shows the first 70-degree day later in the week.    That would be nice.   Probably won't happen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mostly clear skies and 28 this morning. Freeze number 28 on the month. 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 06Z EPS and control run go out through 144 hours which is Monday evening and both show a significant shift east with the secondary trough at that time compared to their 00Z runs.    That was the system on the 00Z ECMWF which delivered most of the lowland snow on that run.  

[TT-SEA]

45 at SEA this morning after putting up a +6 yesterday.    Currently at -2.7 for the month with 3 days left.    I am guessing that is about where it will end up with today above normal, tomorrow close to normal, and Friday below normal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Magical March. Let’s hope we can roll it into an awesome April full of showers and mountain snows. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful morning. You can see the frost on the trees. 

I was thinking this winter has been something of the inverse of last year when the cold anomalies were focused further north. Seattle had a long string of below average months in 21-22 whereas we were close to normal, maybe even a little above until we got to April/May. This season we’ve been much colder relative to average in November, February, and March. 

Edited March 29 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Thunder98]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Gonna be a wacky Wednesday! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna be a wacky Wednesday! 

A Weenie Wednesday?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A Weenie Wednesday?!

Maybe for you if that cold trough comes back on the 12z models!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Perfect 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe for you if that cold trough comes back on the 12z models!

Definitely!   

Or for you if it doesn't.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 06Z EPS and control run go out through 144 hours which is Monday evening and both show a significant shift east with the secondary trough at that time compared to their 00Z runs.    That was the system on the 00Z ECMWF which delivered most of the lowland snow on that run.  

Not exactly a huge surprise, and part of the reason why I’ve been taking an “I’ll believe it when I see it” attitude.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely!   

Or for you if it doesn't.  

I’m kind of good, if we get a couple inches over the weekend I’m more than good. It’s been an incredible run. Not just since mid-February, but since early November. Kind of exhausting honestly. I can’t even imagine if December had lived up to the potential we had on the table. 

[MossMan]

Had a low of 34. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Extremely icy on Silver Falls HWY. Yet another accident. Dense fog dropping into town. 

[Phil]

It’s been so frigging warm lately the NWS had to issue a freeze warning...in late March.

I’ve never seen a freeze of any magnitude damage native plants but my guess is people are planting tropical s**t everywhere now, so they’re SOL.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS washes out the system early next even more than its 06Z run.    

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM still shows that system coming in by Tuesday morning... but is less deep than its 00Z run.     Game is still on though with the GEM showing it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM still shows that system coming in by Tuesday morning... but is less deep than its 00Z run.     Game is still on though with the GEM showing it.

GEM is just rock solid.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Tuesday afternoon per GFS and GEM.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM is just rock solid.

GFS is rock solid with the ridging for next week.   Too bad its the GFS.  

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is rock solid with the ridging for next week.   Too bad its the GFS.  

Re: GFS. Easy way to tell in 90% of cases is, if the solution involves a ULL trapped underneath a horseshoe of ridging, it’s probably typical GFS goofiness.

If it’s a clean ridge without a trapped ULL, it’s much more likely to be a legitimate outcome. Of course neither case is 100% certain/foolproof.

[MossMan]

The horses down the road are enjoying this lovely morning! 

The PNA not giving up its negative territory just yet! 
 

[Phil]

This looks more like the typical springtime GFS error. Though not nearly as obvious/extreme as other cases.

Flip to a ridgy pattern for the 2nd half of April is likely IMO, however I’m skeptical *this* is how it will look at 500mb.

[AlTahoe]

It's pretty amazing that an American town with 7500 residents is about to have a 700" snowfall winter. They should reach it this afternoon

 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

This looks more like the typical springtime GFS error. Though not nearly as obvious/extreme as other cases.

Flip to a ridgy pattern for the 2nd half of April is likely IMO, however I’m skeptical *this* is how it will look at 500mb.

Yeah... almost certain the GFS is being way too aggressive with ridging next week.

The 12Z GEFS also washes out the early week system more thoroughly and has been trending that way over the last few runs.    But after that its anyone's guess.    Might be the start of a general pattern change but probably won't flip to warm and sunny like the GFS is showing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is so lost right now

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The difference between the GEM and GFS is ridiculous. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The difference between the GEM and GFS is ridiculous. 

Here is some "good" news... the 12Z GEM ensemble mean is much closer to the GFS.  

Comparison of 12Z GEM and its 12Z ensemble mean:

 

[ShawniganLake]

The worm is turning!

[Winterdog]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Had a low of 34. 

Got down to 30F here and the same in Arlington.  My 80th freeze.  Currently 49F.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wonder what happened to @Front Ranger. Hope everything is okay. 

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The worm is turning!

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I wish to unsee this! oh god.. .

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Let's B real though. Changing of seasons is not the same as the worm turning. 

Going from an all-time warm October to one of the coldest November's on record is. Now if we have a May 2018 redux then yeah, the worm turned. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let's B real though. Changing of seasons is not the same as the worm turning. 

Going from an all-time warm October to one of the coldest November's on record is. Now if we have a May 2018 redux then yeah, the worm turned. 

This is a good point.   

I guess just breaking away from the very cold pattern across the west for the last two months could sort of be considered a worm turning though.    Even if it just gets back to normal.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is rock solid for April. 

I would be surprised if April ended up this cold. It's hard to imagine things not reverting back towards the mean at some level.