PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I have fond memories of that month Andrew. My Dad and brother and I had a great camping trip on the Rogue River near Agness during that warm spell. Hit low to mid 80s down there at the peak. The pattern crashed on the last day of our trip and we were hitting mixed rain and snow snow showers crossing the forest road over to Coquille Falls on the way home. Low 40s and snow on the foothills as we drove I-5 back up the Willamette Valley. Then by the 20th we were in just about the closest thing you’ll see to an arctic airmass in late April.

I remember getting ready for a baseball game against COLLEGE OF THE OZARKS, in Bartlesville, Oklahoma and getting a text from my Dad saying he had gotten a solid dusting of snow. It was in the low 80s out there that day and I remember thinking how absurd it was they had just gotten snow in Oregon. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

I am doing some digging around to get ready to make a cold March rankings post at the end of the month. Lots of impressive numbers popping up here and there. Even here in the Portland metro, HIO (one of the least UHI infested stations) is looking to put up a top 10 cold March.

Looking at the Pendleton forecast area, one thing that really stands out to me is how incredibly anomalous and historic March 2019 was over there. Not sure if it’s been talked about much here, but some long running stations beat their coldest March on record by 2-3 degrees that year. This March will end up in the top 5 or 10 at many of those same stations.

 

[TT-SEA]

52 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

True, we have not grown fat, happy and VULNERABLE from the weather always going our way the last ten years.

None of this true of course.   And there are so many other factors.   This is your typical villianizing.    You do the same thing to Mark Nelsen.   Pretty sad and pathetic.   

Ironically you are the one who appears VULNERABLE based on your lashing out at people over climate change. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember getting ready for a baseball game against COLLEGE OF THE OZARKS, in Bartlesville, Oklahoma and getting a text from my Dad saying he had gotten a solid dusting of snow. It was in the low 80s out there that day and I remember thinking how absurd it was they had just gotten snow in Oregon. 

It was absurd Andrew, absurdly BEAUTIFUL.

[jakerepp]

1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Does anyone have @Chris contact info? Or maybe tagging him will summon him to the forum so he can read my DM to him

I guess that's a no then

I guess his sons HS team is down here playing a double header today pretty close to me. He asked a month ago if I wanted to come watch and I spaced and forgot it was this week. I haven't heard from him to confirm they are still a go for today.

Oh well!

[TT-SEA]

55 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

True, we have not grown fat, happy and VULNERABLE from the weather always going our way the last ten years.

 

On 3/26/2023 at 2:41 PM, Cascadia_Wx said:

I appreciate you as a member here. You have genuine enthusiasm and interest in the weather and stay away from all the preferences wars, complaining about current or past conditions, and personal stuff between members. Everyone could take a page from your book, myself included.

Take your own advice. 

[Cold Snap]

Holy super Nino on the CFS.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Holy super Nino on the CFS.

Thankfully it's the CFS and usually wrong.   

[High Desert Mat?]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thankfully it's the CFS and usually wrong.   

Usually, except when its showing torching and 600dm heights over us, then it’ll be usually right. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

None of this true of course.   And there are so many other factors.   This is your typical villianizing.    You do the same thing to Mark Nelsen.   Pretty sad and pathetic.   

Ironically you are the one who appears VULNERABLE based on your lashing out at people over climate change. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS. Seems like maybe a little more spread in the long range than on the 00z run. Also growing support for a crash after the ridgy period. Hoping for a dynamic mid to late Spring.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Should be directed at the one making the underhanded digs.   

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS. Seems like maybe a little more spread in the long range than on the 00z run. Also growing support for a crash after the ridgy period. Hoping for a dynamic mid to late Spring.

Yes... my dear friend Jesse who I spend my time with literally every single day... the EPS did end with a return to some sort of troughing in western Canada and the PNW.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... my dear friend Jesse who I spend my time with literally every single day... the EPS did end with a return to some sort of troughing in western Canada and the PNW.

This showed up yesterday as well I believe.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Should be directed at the one making the underhanded digs.   

I know for a fact you don't have him muted because you are the only one who responded. This is after you confidently told me the opposite was true the other day.

It's not even an unreasonable suggestion. Neither of you like each other and blocking is the obvious solution. That and just, like, not saying things when you don't have anything nice to say.

[Front Ranger]

5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wonder what happened to @Front Ranger. Hope everything is okay. 

Hey. I'm fine...just been busy and not paying much attention to weather outside my area lately.

What have I missed??

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Eujunga said:

As an old guy, I'm frequently confused by a lot of the stuff y'all post, but this one takes the cake.

No wooden cubes allowed in parking lots?

block, block, and block

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

block, block, and block

As I mentioned... its sort of messy then because you are missing part of the conversation.    It would be better if we could stop villianizing each other.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Still some... big change is there is not much afterwards on Monday and Tuesday.

I’m still in the blue… and I’ll still believe it when I see it.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m still in the blue… and I’ll still believe it when I see it.

Same for my area.   Almost all the snow out here comes with this weak c-zone on Sunday evening.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Same for my area.   Almost all the snow out here comes with this weak c-zone on Sunday evening.  

Would be crazy for me to get another perfect c-zone for my house. It could just happen 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hey. I'm fine...just been busy and not paying much attention to weather outside my area lately.

What have I missed??

A very cold march here. 

[T-Town]

Yesterday’s wind must have swept the air clean because the Olympics really jumped out this morning on my walk. iPhone camera doesn’t do it justice. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Really beautiful day with some scenic cloud formations around. Looks like some t-storms are developing in spots over the Cascades and coast ranges in northeasterly flow aloft. 56/35 spread here so far.

 

[LowerGarfield]

Winter storm watch issued for the cascades. At this point I'm hoping to get up at 6am or so and leave by 7. We'll see how we do.

I am planning to return Monday and have Tuesday as a buffer as well but it looks like it will be better.

[TT-SEA]

61/41 day at SEA.   

5th 60-degree day in March which is exactly normal.   A nice bonus in a colder than normal month.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Building consensus for the Tax Day Trough on the 18z GFS.

[Cold Snap]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Same for my area.   Almost all the snow out here comes with this weak c-zone on Sunday evening.  

Here is the snow map for that same timeframe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

47 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Building consensus for the Tax Day Trough on the 18z GFS.

Could be the real deal. 

[Meatyorologist]

59 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Building consensus for the Tax Day Trough on the 18z GFS.

Really, really solid for April

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Whoa 

[T-Town]

Nice sunset tonight. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

54 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Whoa 

The Cascade crest sure gets relatively low between about Barlow Pass and Olallie Lake. The crest of the central and southern Oregon cascades are actually fairly high compared even to the Washington Cascades.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Nice sunset tonight. 

Sunsets are hard to capture at home with all of the trees, this is as good as it gets lol. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

If anyone's in the market for a snowy 900 acres, Powder King ski resort is practically a steal. Comes with 40 ft of annual snow and summer lakefront on a private lake - https://snowbrains.com/for-sale-british-columbias-snowiest-ski-resort-could-be-yours-for-8-25-million/

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

If anyone's in the market for a snowy 900 acres, Powder King ski resort is practically a steal. Comes with 40 ft of annual snow and summer lakefront on a private lake - https://snowbrains.com/for-sale-british-columbias-snowiest-ski-resort-could-be-yours-for-8-25-million/

 

 

Tim, Bainbridge, and I are putting together an investment group. I am contributing extensive sweat equity towards the project. 

[TT-SEA]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim, Bainbridge, and I are putting together an investment group. I am contributing extensive sweat equity towards the project. 

That is ridiculously cheap for a ski resort.   My guess is that its losing money.   It's really remote.   

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

Holy super Nino on the CFS.

[GHweatherChris]

38 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim, Bainbridge, and I are putting together an investment group. I am contributing extensive sweat equity towards the project. 

I would be down to provide the foodery sweat equity with various varieties of foods and eateries!!

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS looks different....less ridging and more troughing just offshore.   Sort of a pattern change but not much.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These 00z runs may disappoint some… 

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

If anyone's in the market for a snowy 900 acres, Powder King ski resort is practically a steal. Comes with 40 ft of annual snow and summer lakefront on a private lake - https://snowbrains.com/for-sale-british-columbias-snowiest-ski-resort-could-be-yours-for-8-25-million/

 

 

900 acres of snow to paraphrase Voltaire. 

Is that price tag in CAD or USD?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These 00z runs may disappoint some… 

Could be.   That trough is making its way towards CA once again.  Our Tahoe friend will not be happy.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty interesting... takes a different path but day 9 looks like what we had yesterday.    Persistence is hard to break.

[TT-SEA]

On the other hand... the 00Z GEM appears to be going towards more ridging than its previous runs.  If there is a pattern change coming the models will be more volatile than usual.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

26 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

900 acres of snow to paraphrase Voltaire. 

Is that price tag in CAD or USD?

Looks like it's in CAD, so you can basically cut that price in half 

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

On the other hand... the 00Z GEM appears to be going towards more ridging than its previous runs.  If there is a pattern change coming the models will be more volatile than usual.

As usual the only consistent theme is the eastern ridging. Been cranking nonstop since the second week of February.

It’s not as bad as 2012 but it’s the worst since.

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These 00z runs may disappoint some… 

2 out of 3 leaned ridgy.   I think Meatloaf once said that ain't bad.    

It seems like cheering for disappointment of other people is a pretty big motivator for a couple of you.  

[TT-SEA]

3 hours ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Looks like it's in CAD, so you can basically cut that price in half 

It must be in need of major repairs or losing money in a big way.  That is basically free for a 900-acre ski resort.     

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

On the other hand... the 00Z GEM appears to be going towards more ridging than its previous runs.  If there is a pattern change coming the models will be more volatile than usual.

California is still under the curse of the White Witch there.