PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF goes all warm and wet by late next week.   Seems like most logical progression.

I need the precip at my place badly

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy rain would be a blessing. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow through Saturday at 4 p.m. 

One note... more than half of what is shown in Pierce County comes before 4 p.m. tomorrow and that just doesn't make sense.   

The precip will change every run up and down. Must have to do with how close the low is to the coast.

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

The ECMWF is really the only model that’s been bullish on that CZ tomorrow. It’s been so consistent it’s hard not to trust it. The NAM has one (albeit not as strong) but it’s more south (sorry Randy) I’ll gladly take that!!

I definitely trust the ECMWF much more in this situation 

This image is the 12z NAM

It’s over for me.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Apparently they finally plowed our road today.... 30" of snow since last Wednesday and this is the first time. 

Crazy... that seems very dangerous if there was a medical emergency.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Crazy... that seems very dangerous if there was a medical emergency.  

I know one of the guys who works at the farm past us wasn't able to get to work until today because his car couldn't make it down the road. Because there are not many people on our road. They also use graders on the side roads because they are gravel, and the grader went in the ditch the other day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful Los Angeles National Forest.

[Ray]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know one of the guys who works at the farm past us wasn't able to get to work until today because his car couldn't make it down the road. Because there are not many people on our road. They also use graders on the side roads because they are gravel, and the grader went in the ditch the other day. 

I grew up in the Spring Lake area of Maple Valley back in the 60s and 70s.  All they used were chained up graders to clear snow back then. 

[Winterdog]

Still have snowcover here at 310 feet.

[MossMan]

Just now, Winterdog said:

Still have snow over here at 310 feet.

Yeah even with the wind and rain last night/this morning I really didn’t lose much snow either! 

[TT-SEA]

End of 12Z ECMWF... @Phil !!

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

End of 12Z ECMWF... @Phil !!

They always have all the fun.

[Cold Snap]

47 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

The ECMWF is really the only model that’s been bullish on that CZ tomorrow. It’s been so consistent it’s hard not to trust it. The NAM has one (albeit not as strong) but it’s more south (sorry Randy) I’ll gladly take that!!

I definitely trust the ECMWF much more in this situation 

This image is the 12z NAM

I’ll take that CZ as well!

[Timmy Supercell]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

They always have all the fun.

Whatevs.. Aside from the week of Christmas, and what's showing on that model, we hardly had a winter.

[ShawniganLake]

I’ve had 22 days with accumulating snow this season, totally 56”. Pattern doesn’t look too promising for much more up here, but we might be able to scrape together another couple of inches over the next week. 

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Whatevs.. Aside from the week of Christmas, and what's showing on that model, we hardly had a winter.

Think I still have PTSD from the horrible winters of 2012/13-2015/16 while the east scored over and over again!

[Perturbed Member]

A lot of 35F conversational snow for Washington county on most models Saturday AM. 

I will happily take it if it happens. Few hours of non-sticking snow in March ain't bad. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Think I still have PTSD from the horrible winters of 2012/13-2015/16 while the east scored over and over again!

Buckle up... that might be 2023-24.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

The EPS is snowy

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Buckle up... that might be 2023-24.  

Each year is unique with unique potential. I refuse to write off a year ahead of time. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful.

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Think I still have PTSD from the horrible winters of 2012/13-2015/16 while the east scored over and over again!

Dec 2012 was a decent start, then it just continued to degrade the following few months. January wasted its cold by also being a boring month. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Each year is unique with unique potential. I refuse to write off a year ahead of time. 

Absolutely... and 2018-19 was a Nino year.  

But the odds are increased that next winter might be a payback year.

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Each year is unique with unique potential. I refuse to write off a year ahead of time. 

1965-66 was a strong Nino and we had over 75” of snow here that winter.  Odds are less likely but it can happen 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

 during the day and
overnight, will remain enough above freezing that any precip is
expected to fall as rain, however overnight/early morning snow
levels do drop down to between 400-600 ft, which may allow some
hills to see a wintery mix. No significant accumulations are

So why are no significant accumulations  expected? Do they look at a different model than us? 

This is Seattle NWS

Edited March 2, 2023 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

 during the day and
overnight, will remain enough above freezing that any precip is
expected to fall as rain, however overnight/early morning snow
levels do drop down to between 400-600 ft, which may allow some
hills to see a wintery mix. No significant accumulations are

So why are no significant accumulations  expected? Do they look at a different model than us? 

This is Seattle NWS

I mean, what model are you looking at that shows significant accululations between 400+600 ft?

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

 during the day and
overnight, will remain enough above freezing that any precip is
expected to fall as rain, however overnight/early morning snow
levels do drop down to between 400-600 ft, which may allow some
hills to see a wintery mix. No significant accumulations are

So why are no significant accumulations  expected? Do they look at a different model than us? 

This is Seattle NWS

They will put something out for the hood canal I bet. The hood canal is in its own world in comparison with Seattle for snow. 

[MossMan]

Spring is trying hard! Sound up! Busy Birds and the sound of melting snow running down the gutters! 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

 during the day and
overnight, will remain enough above freezing that any precip is
expected to fall as rain, however overnight/early morning snow
levels do drop down to between 400-600 ft, which may allow some
hills to see a wintery mix. No significant accumulations are

So why are no significant accumulations  expected? Do they look at a different model than us? 

This is Seattle NWS

Guess I’m getting nothing either. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Spring is trying hard! Sound up! Busy Birds and the sound of melting snow running down the gutters! 

IMG_3314.MOV

Wonder if those birds know what they are in for tonight?  

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Absolutely... and 2018-19 was a Nino year.  

But the odds are increased that next winter might be a payback year.

We are due for a dud after this epic stretch of winter greatness since 2016/17! But we are also overdue for an epic November! 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wonder if those birds know what they are in for tonight?  

They read the NWS Seattle AFD. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm hoping for a 2006-07 type winter. That would get Randy his November event too. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS also says things might get more interesting for Phil.  

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, gusky said:

I mean, what model are you looking at that shows significant accululations between 400+600 ft?

ECMWF shows Randy's area getting buried tonight and the Hood Canal being buried tomorrow night. 

[High Desert Mat?]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS also says things might get more interesting for Phil.  

Looks zonalish. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The front has cleared Salem now and the sun is shining. 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS also says things might get more interesting for Phil.  

The worm is turning  

[TacomaWx]

Thank god the convergence zone ended up a bit south of our 520 sites. Already have enough water to deal with right now as it is don’t need a thumping heavy rain to overflow the system rn. 

[TacomaWx]

46 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’ve had 22 days with accumulating snow this season, totally 56”. Pattern doesn’t look too promising for much more up here, but we might be able to scrape together another couple of inches over the next week. 

Think we’ve had like 16 or 17 here…can’t remember off the top of my head. Never more than. 1-1.2” though.