PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Patterns that favor the Hood Canal are rarely good for the other side of the Sound.  And even less so at this time of year without a supply of cold air coming through the passes.

And patterns that are good for your side sometimes are not good here. There have been many times I missed out here while that side did good.

[Cold Snap]

It’s funny how Seattle is on here but Portland isn’t.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

32 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

How much did you get?

3 or so

[TT-SEA]

     

The western US has been one of the most anomalously cold spots in the world recently.     

Here are the temp anomalies over the last 2 months... "my backyard" does not equal the entire Earth.     The fact that excess water vapor in the stratosphere has a warming effect on the planet is not disputed.     That is one theory about the effects of Tonga, but too early to say if there were mitigating factors.   I do know that our little corner of the Earth does not define the entire Earth. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

It’s funny how Seattle is on here but Portland isn’t.

It’s surreal that I’m ahead of Rochester.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

     

The western US has been one of the most anomalously cold spots in the world recently.     

Here are the temp anomalies over the last 2 months... "my backyard" does not equal the entire Earth.     The fact that excess water vapor in the stratosphere has a warming effect on the planet is not disputed.     That is one theory about the effects of Tonga, but too early to say if there were mitigating factors.   I do know that our little corner of the Earth does not define the entire Earth. 

I was referring to the whole globe.  There are websites that monitor current global temps and we are running lower than last season.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s surreal that I’m ahead of Rochester.

I’m just behind Salt Lake. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

It’s funny how Seattle is on here but Portland isn’t.

We’re ahead of Providence.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s surreal that I’m ahead of Rochester.

Seattle being in the top 20 is pretty nuts as well.

[snow_wizard]

The GEM and GFS show heavy precip here tonight.  We'll see if the ECMWF jumps on board in a minute.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

35 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

How much did you get?

About 3 but just 4 miles west of me there was 5. It's been lime that all winter, as good as I have done just west of me has had an amazing winter for snowfall. For most of the winter I've been just a tad to far east to get into the true hood canal zone, I've been just on the edge. Sometimes it just works out that way and that zone is much smaller in March. I've kept track for that area west of me and they are around 60 inches for the season and I'm about 46. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

49 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Meanwhile…

You're getting an awesome winter. Amazing how much your area can change from year to year. I would think because of your elevation and location you'd get a bunch of snow every winter but that does not happen. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was referring to the whole globe.  There are websites that monitor current global temps and we are running lower than last season.

As with other volcanic eruptions... there is often a delay in the effects.    We will learn more over the next few years.    And water vapor in the stratosphere is slower to dissipate than SO2.   Way too early to know what effect it will have.   

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2354559-2022-tonga-eruption-means-we-may-hit-1-5c-of-global-warming-earlier/

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ensembles looking solid. Crazy how the warmer period that was advertised in the 7-10 day range is starting to evaporate.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF still shows the deformation band reaching the Seattle area later this evening... favorable timing but the precip looks really light with marginal temps.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Interesting setup right now where the high March sun angle is melting the accumulated snow even as light snowfall continues, resulting in a steady snow depth of 1/2"-1" inch on most surfaces. Still just 33º.

Same sort of thing going on here. Trees shedding snow like no other. The 4” we got since dinner time yesterday have definitely refreshed the snow pack though. 17” this morning on the deck. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I was thinking about everyone on here lastnight and how there's so many of us that live in areas that we are not happy with the winter weather. Even with what I had this winter I'm not satisfied and it's because I want to live in an area that has a true winter snow climate. I'm just being real, I've realized I will never be satisfied living in this area when it comes too winter weather.  If I ever win one of those huge power ball lottery jackpots I will make a list of people on here and pay for the relocation of there dreams.  And I'm 100% serious.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You're getting an awesome winter. Amazing how much your area can change from year to year. I would think because of your elevation and location you'd get a bunch of snow every winter but that does not happen. 

It really does. The past 3 weeks have really taken this winter to another level. Hard to say where we end up as we have a few more snow chances coming up. We have done pretty well overall outside that 2012-16 stretch. The 2006-2011 stretch was probably pretty epic up here too. We have had snow every single year I’ve lived up here though. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Andrew, are you one of the highest areas to own a home around that area?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It really does. The past 3 weeks have really taken this winter to another level. Hard to say where we end up as we have a few more snow chances coming up. We have done pretty well overall outside that 2012-16 stretch. The 2006-2011 stretch was probably pretty epic up here too. We have had snow every single year I’ve lived up here though. 

What year did you move there?

[snow_wizard]

The amount of precip being shown on the ECMWF wouldn't get it done tonight.  It is trending wetter though.

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I've been playing around with this incredible weather raking site, that some people use on here and found that the Feb 20 to Mar 3 average for SEA is the 5th coldest in the period of record.  Quite impressive!

For those interested in checking out the site here it is.

xmACIS2 (rcc-acis.org)

A bit of a learning curve on how to use it.

 

 

Really fun site. Out of curiosity I plugged in the 7-20 to 10-16 period last year. The warmth in that stretch blew everything else out of the water for PDX and other nearby long term stations. PDX averaged 72.3 degrees. The second warmest such period was 2014 which came in at 69.1 The 20th century record was 68.1 in 1991.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Really fun site. Out of curiosity I plugged in the 7-20 to 10-16 period last year. The warmth in that stretch blew everything else out of the water for PDX and other nearby long term stations. PDX averaged 72.3 degrees. The second warmest such period was 2014 which came in at 69.1 The 20th century record was 68.1 in 1991.

Even cold friendly Olympia handily beat 1967 by 1.5 degrees in that stretch. Also the warmest for SEA by over a degree.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As with other volcanic eruptions... there is often a delay in the effects.    We will learn more over the next few years.    And water vapor in the stratosphere is slower to dissipate than SO2.   Way too early to know what effect it will have.   

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2354559-2022-tonga-eruption-means-we-may-hit-1-5c-of-global-warming-earlier/

I think something to consider is the water vapor is in the stratosphere and not the troposphere.  Just because the latter causes global warming may not mean it will in this case.  I'm guessing a lot of salt was blasted into the atmosphere also which is considered a global cooling agent.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Really fun site. Out of curiosity I plugged in the 7-20 to 10-16 period last year. The warmth in that stretch blew everything else out of the water for PDX and other nearby long term stations. PDX averaged 72.3 degrees. The second warmest such period was 2014 which came in at 69.1 The 20th century record was 68.1 in 1991.

I thought about checking that out also.  I think we just about offset that warm period with all of the cold this winter based on where we are at with heating degrees days since July 1 now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Seattle being in the top 20 is pretty nuts as well.

I think that's more of a selected cities list than a top 20 one. Portland is larger than Rochester and has received more snow than Seattle this season, yet it is nowhere on that list.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I thought about checking that out also.  I think we just about offset that warm period with all of the cold this winter based on where we are at with heating degrees days since July 1 now.

Nope, not even close.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was thinking about everyone on here lastnight and how there's so many of us that live in areas that we are not happy with the winter weather. Even with what I had this winter I'm not satisfied and it's because I want to live in an area that has a true winter snow climate. I'm just being real, I've realized I will never be satisfied living in this area when it comes too winter weather.  If I ever win one of those huge power ball lottery jackpots I will make a list of people on here and pay for the relocation of there dreams.  And I'm 100% serious.  

I’m good with my climate. I wish it was colder in the winter and rainier in the summer, but in the scheme of things, I really enjoy it. Compared to what I grew up with 12 miles away, this is heaven, it’s where I always wanted to move if I had the chance. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Really fun site. Out of curiosity I plugged in the 7-20 to 10-16 period last year. The warmth in that stretch blew everything else out of the water for PDX and other nearby long term stations. PDX averaged 72.3 degrees. The second warmest such period was 2014 which came in at 69.1 The 20th century record was 68.1 in 1991.

Did you see my post last night where I ran 7/20-7/31 and then 11/1-11/15 at silver falls. The first such period

was the 2nd warmest behind 1978, the November period was the 2nd coldest behind 1978. Thought that was interesting. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nope, not even close.

I'll have to look at it closer for Seattle, but we are above normal for HDD for July 1 to present, but we had an excess of CDD to offset from last summer.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did you see my post last night where I ran 7/20-7/31 and then 11/1-11/15 at silver falls. The first such period

was the 2nd warmest behind 1978, the November period was the 2nd coldest behind 1978. Thought that was interesting. 

I did Andrew.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did you see my post last night where I ran 7/20-7/31 and then 11/1-11/15 at silver falls. The first such period

was the 2nd warmest behind 1978, the November period was the 2nd coldest behind 1978. Thought that was interesting. 

That is interesting.  1978-79 was another season that had a huge swing from warmth to cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Andrew, are you one of the highest areas to own a home around that area?

No there are a lot of homes in the 1500-1600’ range along or just off Silver Falls Hwy. And then there are two roads on the ridge above me that have several dozen homes, some of which are over 2000’. Crooked Finger Road which goes up out of Scott’s Mills just to our north has quite a few homes in the 1500-2300’ zone too. 

 

12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What year did you move there?

August 2011. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That is interesting.  1978-79 was another season that had a huge swing from warmth to cold.

Much more Jim friendly fact.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think something to consider is the water vapor is in the stratosphere and not the troposphere.  Just because the latter causes global warming may not mean it will in this case.  I'm guessing a lot of salt was blasted into the atmosphere also which is considered a global cooling agent.

Maybe... but from what I read it is water vapor in the stratosphere is what has warming effect on the planet.   All else being equal of course.    There could be mitigating factors.   And even if there is a distinct warming effect overall... maybe the western US is one of the areas that has the opposite result.    Some areas could be cooler even if overall there is warming.  

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was thinking about everyone on here lastnight and how there's so many of us that live in areas that we are not happy with the winter weather. Even with what I had this winter I'm not satisfied and it's because I want to live in an area that has a true winter snow climate. I'm just being real, I've realized I will never be satisfied living in this area when it comes too winter weather.  If I ever win one of those huge power ball lottery jackpots I will make a list of people on here and pay for the relocation of there dreams.  And I'm 100% serious.  

I think the continental flavor is what you and I really crave.  To me there is nothing like the bite of a cold continental airmass.

That is incredibly generous of you BTW!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No there are a lot of homes in the 1500-1600’ range along or just off Silver Falls Hwy. And then there are two roads on the ridge above me that have several dozen homes, some of which are over 2000’. Crooked Finger Road which goes up out of Scott’s Mills just to our north has quite a few homes in the 1500-2300’ zone too. 

 

August 2011. 

There are a lot more places in Western OR to live above 1000 feet than up here.  The choices are very limited here.  Even east of the mountains the highest towns are only 2000 to 2600.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This place is for sale about a mile

from here. It is about 1600’. 
 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/251-Silver-Falls-Dr-SE-Silverton-OR-97381/251196451_zpid/

Edited March 5, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but from what I read it is water vapor in the stratosphere is what has warming effect on the planet.   All else being equal of course.    There could be mitigating factors.   And even if there is a distinct warming effect overall... maybe the western US is one of the areas that has the opposite result.    Some areas could be cooler even if overall there is warming.  

I'm sure atmospheric scientists are dying to see how this will play out.  Big learning experience.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure atmospheric scientists are dying to see how this will play out.  Big learning experience.

Unprecedented in the modern era.