PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Christensen87]

00z definitely looks more interesting for the weekend. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

00z definitely looks more interesting for the weekend. 

Interesting like Tim and warmth interesting, or interesting like Jim snow and cold Interesting, or interesting like Timmy Supercell thunderstorms interesting, or interesting like MossMan windstorms interesting, or interesting like Jesse drizzle and cool interesting? 

Edited March 7 by MossMan

[Cold Snap]

Looking like Jim snow and cold interesting.

[Meatyorologist]

7 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Hoping the pattern of energy and moisture focusing southward more into CA continues into the warm season. Great opportunity for warm core convection if lows get hung up in these positions as we enter May/June.

Was going to say this myself. Anthony brought up the ULL-warm season thunderstorm-esque nature of today's weather pattern.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Rain/snow mix here turning to snow. 

[Meatyorologist]

Meanwhile, I've been keeping busy.

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Looking like Jim snow and cold interesting.

Need those blues to trend west or north or south or west but yeah looks like we might not be done with the snow just yet! 

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Meanwhile, I've been keeping busy.

What’re u doing in NYC?

[Winterdog]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Need those blues to trend west or north or south or west but yeah looks like we might not be done with the snow just yet! 

Haha, later it shows you and I getting 9" inches on the 14th.  You can take that to the bank for sure.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

What’re u doing in NYC?

Had to skip town for a bit on my own. Just had to. The wanderlust was too strong and the BS in my personal life just kept mounting. I impulse bought the plane tickets and the hostel while enjoying the fruits of being 21, the next morning insted of cancelling I decided to commit.

I've never travelled alone before so this is a big step for me. It's been one of the best experiences of my life so far.

[Phil]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Had to skip town for a bit on my own. Just had to. The wanderlust was too strong and the BS in my personal life just kept mounting. I impulse bought the plane tickets and the hostel while enjoying the fruits of being 21, the next morning insted of cancelling I decided to commit.

I've never travelled alone before so this is a big step for me. It's been one of the best experiences of my life so far.

Sorry about the stress, man. Life’s a bïtch. Glad you found a way to escape, though.

And it might snow there later tonight.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

How does the euro look for friday morning snowfall potential around the canal?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The gfs shows a bunch of offshore flow ahead of that juicy system so i could play out like the one last weekend around the 25th.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs has some strong offshore flow for about 48 hrs then a low approaches and deepens to 980mb just west of long beach.

Not very cold but dewpoints will be low. Could be interesting for places away from the canal as well.

[ShawniganLake]

37 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

How does the euro look for friday morning snowfall potential around the canal?

Not much down your way. 
 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not much down your way. 
 

Just a warmer solution. Going to be close.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Gradient Keeper]

Sorry Night Shifters!

[Gradient Keeper]

[Gradient Keeper]

Is the Night Shift 6z GFS even going to happen?

[AlTahoe]

Apparently Truckee high school has exceeded the snow load rating for their building. South lake tahoe fire drove around my neighborhood yesterday telling everyone to remove snow from their roofs before the incoming rain this weekend.

[Timmy]

Is this for realz?

[Mr Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

Apparently Truckee high school has exceeded the snow load rating for their building. South lake tahoe fire drove around my neighborhood yesterday telling everyone to remove snow from their roofs before the incoming rain this weekend.

Lockdowns and stay at home all over again, 3 years later. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Got q/2 of snow lastnight. 

[MossMan]

I was up to 33 days with snow on the ground 4yrs ago today! 
Oh and here is the PNA. 

[MossMan]

Well Tim hasn’t posted that it’s not coming this weekend so it might actually be coming this weekend? 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like unfavorable timing with the system on Friday from the Seattle area northward with the bulk the precip moving through during daylight hours.    More interesting for SW WA and the Hood Canal.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well Tim hasn’t posted that it’s not coming this weekend so it might actually be coming this weekend? 

Oh snap... I was posting just as you wrote that.   I think the only chance is really Friday.    It's not an entire weekend event.

In fact the GFS is pretty warm on Sunday at least for the Seattle area.   But it's the GFS.

[Phishy Wx]

back to blah, meh, cold.

at least its Graupel season

ran into some last night driving home from Spokane airport

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like unfavorable timing with the system on Friday from the Seattle area northward with the bulk the precip moving through during daylight hours.    More interesting for SW WA and the Hood Canal.

And even this area is iffy. The timing could change slightly and 6 hrs could make all the difference. 

[umadbro]

1 hour ago, Timmy said:

Is this for realz?

Temps in the mid to even upper 30s. Toss it.

[TT-SEA]

The 06Z ECMWF shows snow across most of SW WA late Thursday night into Friday morning with the more favorable timing in terms of daylight.  

[Phishy Wx]

lol 5" Thursday night into Friday?

[TT-SEA]

Another sunny morning... but will probably have clouds building up later.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 06Z ECMWF shows snow across most of SW WA late Thursday night into Friday morning with the more favorable timing in terms of daylight.  

SCORE! Though this is total snow, some of this probably falls the next day or two.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SCORE! Though this is total snow, some of this probably falls the next day or two.

Probably... but the lowland snow in SW WA is primarily late Thursday night into Friday morning. 

[umadbro]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 06Z ECMWF shows snow across most of SW WA late Thursday night into Friday morning with the more favorable timing in terms of daylight.  

It’s going to be too warm. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably... but the lowland snow in SW WA is primarily late Thursday night into Friday morning. 

Phantom snow below 1000'. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phantom snow below 1000'. 

Snow level will be even higher than that up here on Friday during the day when the main batch of precip moves through.   I don't expect much of anything in my area.   ECMWF and GFS show temps well into the 40s during the day on Friday even out here.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM and 12Z ICON are probably more reasonable given the marginal temps.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We did pick up a light dusting this morning. Six straight days of sticking snow. 

March 2: 0.3

March 3: 0.8

March 4: 2.7

March 5: 2.2

March 6: 4.4

March 7: 0.1

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tomorrow morning looks like a good chance for snow down in Medford. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another sunny morning... but will probably have clouds building up later.

Live look from the kitchen window. 

[Phil]

Niño 3.4 might actually flirt with positive territory before the end of the month. Probably won’t stay that high given subsequent MJO transit into E-Hem, but there’s no sign of a niña standing wave on the latest EPS weeklies, so forcing should continue to propagate thereafter.

[Phil]

At least this doesn’t look like a repeat of March 2012. Would be grateful to put that horrible analog in the rear view mirror.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

At least this doesn’t look like a repeat of March 2012. Would be grateful to put that horrible analog in the rear view mirror.

It would truly suck to continue building western snow pack and water supply. 

[TT-SEA]

Sunny again this morning from Seattle to Bellingham is the same area as yesterday with some downslope off the Cascades.     Up 42 in North Bend and at SEA already.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunny again this morning from Seattle to Bellingham is the same area as yesterday with some downslope off the Cascades.     Up 42 in North Bend and at SEA already.

North Bend sounds like the ultimate banana belt. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

North Bend sounds like the ultimate banana belt. 

Depends on the set up... this happens to be a pattern that favors warmer conditions out here than other places in the PNW.    But today it should be fairly uniform from Seattle to Bellingham and out to the foothills up here thanks to weak offshore flow.    Any time there is an offshore component it will usually be warmer out here with the notable exception being when there is a deep cold pool east of the Cascades.   That is not an issue in March though.  

Downslope is a major difference between your area and my area.  

[TT-SEA]

Temps are fairly uniform this morning across the Seattle area in the low to mid 40s.    North Bend is the lower right corner but is not much warmer than the rest of the area this morning thanks to plentiful sunshine everywhere.