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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Not sure if it's been mentioned before, but with this year's performance PDX has now seen a staggering 18/29 daily record low maximums in February come since 2006. With 8 different years in that bunch accounting for all of that.

For added effect you can also see January, which has had 2 record low maximums in the same timeframe.

 

image.png

Crazy stuff. Hopefully if we ever get a January cold spell it will be centered around the 22nd, so we can knock out that low hanging fruit MIN/MAX of 31. Our historically most solid winter month deserves a clean sweep of sub-30 min/max’s.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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43 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Maybe not the entire northwest.. 😇

I think I get it now. You were mostly talking about the Klamath Falls area? I doubt they are moving into drought category at the moment though. Southern Oregon is doing really well relative to average, even relative to the rest of the region. I think the area farthest behind on snowpack right now is actually the North Cascades.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Nice to see you all still rocking late season snow. The northwest looks like it'll enter a moderate drought which took me for a surprise. I just thought this would be a 2019 like year.

I think OR is fine for snowpack at the moment but a bit behind on precip. Hoping for a wetter pattern the next few months.

The snowstorm two weeks ago was amazing though!

I wonder if the majority of the country will see something this month. Looks like Detroit had a snowstorm recently and maybe the Northern Plains soon.

 

185th Ave at Springville Rd_pid4373(1).jpg

26Bethany_pid524(2).jpg

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Actually saw some cherry blossoms going off in DT Portland yesterday, which took me for a bit of a surprise. Otherwise total dormancy as far as the eye can see.

We were at the Ram’s Head off of NW 23rd earlier this weekend and I also noticed some cherry or plum trees trying to blossom along one of the side streets where we parked. I think some of those dense urban areas can raise the immediate temps enough to actually push phenology ahead by a couple weeks. 

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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54 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I miss my southeast thunderstorms in summer. I don’t miss baseball sized hail and tornados

I experienced a few storms with an hour straight of constant lightning, that was usually when an MCS came through. Been in 1" hail and 4 Tornado Watches, but no warnings yet. We get so many t'storms the dates of some events would get lost if I didn't take any notes. :)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I experienced a few storms with an hour straight of constant lightning, that was usually when an MCS came through. Been in 1" hail and 4 Tornado Watches, but no warnings yet. We get so many t'storms the dates of some events would get lost if I didn't take any notes. :)

I bet you’re in heaven there.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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I really have to agree with Jim. Something has happened to our weather, it is fundamentally different in a more exciting and Xtreme way. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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54 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Not sure if it's been mentioned before, but with this year's performance PDX has now seen a staggering 18/29 daily record low maximums in February come since 2006. With 8 different years in that bunch accounting for all of that.

For added effect you can also see January, which has had 2 record low maximums in the same timeframe.

 

image.png

That high of 31 degrees on the 23rd this year is amazing with almost full sunshine as well. Almost a ground blizzard too.
Looking at the radar loop from the storm is incredible too. At around 10pm I thought the 2" was it, but then the actual blizzard conditions arrived after midnight with temps in the mid 20s.



 

22223.gif

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32 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Crazy stuff. Hopefully if we ever get a January cold spell it will be centered around the 22nd, so we can knock out that low hanging fruit MIN/MAX of 31. Our historically most solid winter month deserves a clean sweep of sub-30 min/max’s.

That 38 on February 11 looks pretty stupid now, as well.

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I really have to agree with Jim. Something has happened to our weather, it is fundamentally different in a more exciting and Xtreme way. 

E1AA9A29-78CF-4FE4-8F35-522D2B899520.gif

What I picture it looks like when people are converted by Jim.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We were at the Ram’s Head off of NW 23rd earlier this weekend and I also noticed some cherry or plum trees trying to blossom along one of the side streets where we parked. I think some of those dense urban areas can raise the immediate temps enough to actually push phenology ahead by a couple weeks. 

I think the comparative lack of freezes definitely extends the growing season a tiny bit in DT Portland.

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7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

That high of 31 degrees on the 23rd this year is amazing with almost full sunshine as well. Almost a ground blizzard too.
Looking at the radar loop from the storm is incredible too. At around 10pm I thought the 2" was it, but then the actual blizzard conditions arrived after midnight with temps in the mid 20s.
 



 

22223.gif

Such amazing memories. Truly one of the most joyful days of my life. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Get another crack at 2/29, too!

I remember 2/29/12 very well, we had about 10" of snow that day. Snow began in the evening on the 28th and didn't end until a few hours after midnight on the 1st of March. Storm total was about 16.5", pretty amazing especially considering there was no real accumulation during the peak heating hours on the 29th as it was in the mid-30s though still snowing heavily. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

Can't wait to see what the research studies show about Tonga and its effects on this winter. Every long range forecast showed below normal rain and snowfall for California. Now we're smashing records but the odd part is we have had no melt periods from early Nov through now which is extraordinary. 

That’s because they were guided by seasonal models which are trash (for the most part).

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

😀     

The western US has been one of the most anomalously cold spots in the world recently.     

Here are the temp anomalies over the last 2 months... "my backyard" does not equal the entire Earth.     The fact that excess water vapor in the stratosphere has a warming effect on the planet is not disputed.     That is one theory about the effects of Tonga, but too early to say if there were mitigating factors.   I do know that our little corner of the Earth does not define the entire Earth. 

cdas-all-nhemi-t2m_f_anom_60day_back-7996000.png

Baffin Island ftw.

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but from what I read it is water vapor in the stratosphere is what has warming effect on the planet.   All else being equal of course.    There could be mitigating factors.   And even if there is a distinct warming effect overall... maybe the western US is one of the areas that has the opposite result.    Some areas could be cooler even if overall there is warming.  

H2O forcing is most effective in the upper troposphere via lapse rate feedback. In the stratosphere it may simply serve to accelerate the MC and dampen its effectiveness as a GHG.

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Grande Ronde River at Troy this morning. NE Oregon got hammered last night. Someone I know near Cove just north of La Grande picked up 7.5". 

May be an image of nature, mountain and body of water

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, Doinko said:

That high of 31 degrees on the 23rd this year is amazing with almost full sunshine as well. Almost a ground blizzard too.
Looking at the radar loop from the storm is incredible too. At around 10pm I thought the 2" was it, but then the actual blizzard conditions arrived after midnight with temps in the mid 20s.
 



 

22223.gif

That thing will be fun to go back and pick apart someday. Such a unique, fragmented setup.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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35 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

When do we get rid of the abnormally cold SSTs off the West Coast?

Those might stick around. With SPMM reversing, the NPMM/PDO may be more inclined to remain negative.

Mean ITCZ/HC should be significantly equatorward this year relative to the last decade.

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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That thing will be fun to go back and pick apart someday. Such a unique, fragmented setup.

I love living through history. Truly one for the ages. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How much did that area end up with?

Ours? We got about about 7-8 total inches but maxed out with a little under a six inch depth. Clark County was pretty spotty with significant accumulations once you got a couple miles north of the river so I feel like we lucked out.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Knocked 2/95 off its pedestal, especially when you throw in the coastal stuff.

Definitely, just a great overall event. Never forget it started with the V-Day trough. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Ours? We got about about 7-8 total inches but maxed out with a little under a six inch depth. Clark County was pretty spotty with significant accumulations once you got a couple miles north of the river so I feel like we lucked out.

I think our total accumulation was a bit less but the max depth was a bit over 6 or so inches as well. Most of the snow here fell in the mid-20s after midnight. Around half of 2017's total here but I don't think most of that snow fell below 30 degrees.

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EUG put up a 44/31 today, good for a -8 departure. Of note, they also recorded 1.0" of snow. SCORE!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Definitely, just a great overall event. Never forget it started with the V-Day trough. 

The ground cooling from that mofo was our saving grace. Without it accumulations would have been near impossible.

Edited by Deweydog
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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I think our total accumulation was a bit less but the max depth was a bit over 6 or so inches as well. Most of the snow here fell in the mid-20s after midnight. Around half of 2017's total here but I don't think most of that snow fell below 30 degrees.

Yeah, our best precip dynamics were that afternoon. Once we got into primetime for accumulations, the mid level advection started to mitigate lift as things migrated westward in a clunky fashion. 

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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56 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I experienced a few storms with an hour straight of constant lightning, that was usually when an MCS came through. Been in 1" hail and 4 Tornado Watches, but no warnings yet. We get so many t'storms the dates of some events would get lost if I didn't take any notes. :)

Just compiled some of the close lightning strikes I’ve recorded over the past few years. Have a lot more in my camera roll, will try to go through those soon.

 

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I guess the late February event doesn't really rival January 2017... I tried to make that argument in my mind, but it seemed like a very IMBY centric argument to make so I abandoned it. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I saw one of my FB fiends that lives in the Enumclaw area just posted that it’s snowing there. 

So is that a couple random snowflakes or dumping snow with roads covered and trees flocked?   Or something in between?  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I guess the late February event doesn't really rival January 2017... I tried to make that argument in my mind, but it seemed like a very IMBY centric argument to make so I abandoned it. 

Different kind of animal though. That was much more of a stratiform overrunning dynamic that coincided nicely with the mid level cold advection. Crazy explosive for our mundane normality.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I guess the late February event doesn't really rival January 2017... I tried to make that argument in my mind, but it seemed like a very IMBY centric argument to make so I abandoned it. 

I think it does in some places. East Portland did better with this storm, I think. And the coastal snow this time was really impressive. Higher totals around this area though, we had around 13" in 2017.
NWS Portland on Twitter: "Final Snowfall Totals for 10-11 Jan snowstorm.  For many, biggest storm since February 1995. https://t.co/1eKsLE0AJa #orwx  #wawx #pdxtst https://t.co/9GCkaXx5VN" / Twitter

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So is that a couple random snowflakes or dumping snow with roads covered and trees flocked?   Or something in between?  😀

Good question!! 

2B4BAFB2-8DB5-4316-B0EB-1C8AC722D60E.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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