PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I think it does in some places. East Portland did better with this storm, I think. And the coastal snow this time was really impressive. Higher totals around this area though, we had around 13" in 2017.

I did a lot better this time around, we had 2" from the 2017 "event," 11" this year. 

[Timmy Supercell]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Just compiled some of the close lightning strikes I’ve recorded over the past few years. Have a lot more in my camera roll, will try to go through those soon.

 

My youtube channel will get more activity this year hopefully. My powershot is a little screwy and I need to swap it out for new stuff. 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

East-based developing +ENSO years should serve as the best analogs. Not too many of those, but 2019 and 1997 are both on the list.

I'm still not convinced we are going to have a Nino.  A lot to be proven still.

[snow_wizard]

Just terrible luck in this area for snow.  Obviously the time of day was less than desirable on this one.  There has been some snow mixed in, but it's almost over now.  Down to 36.3 after a high of either 49 or 50.

[Timmy Supercell]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I think it does in some places. East Portland did better with this storm, I think. And the coastal snow this time was really impressive. Higher totals around this area though, we had around 13" in 2017.

Looks about right for Wilsonville. From 2013 to 2021 my brother lived there and told me he hadn't seen more than a few inches all at once that whole time. Bad area for snow. 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

My youtube channel will get more activity this year hopefully. My powershot is a little screwy and I need to swap it out for new stuff. 

One of these years I’ll invest in something other than a smartphone for storm videos.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm still not convinced we are going to have a Nino.  A lot to be proven still.

I hope you are right.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just terrible luck in this area for snow.  Obviously the time of day was less than desirable on this one.  There has been some snow mixed in, but it's almost over now.  Down to 36.3 after a high of either 49 or 50.

You would have loved it down here today. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

One of these years I’ll invest in something other than a smartphone for storm videos.

I'm sure you noticed in a few of my later videos, my lens is doing a clicking. I think there is a setting that can reduce it but I'm too lazy to try to figure this out. It's worked for several years though so I shouldn't complain.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm still not convinced we are going to have a Nino.  A lot to be proven still.

Too early to be fully convinced of anything, but the hallmarks seem to be present.

The development of this (possible) El Niño would be very different than recent decades, were coupling initiated in the west/central Pacific. So your skepticism is understandable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Too early to be fully convinced of anything, but the hallmarks seem to be present.

The development of this (possible) El Niño would be very different than recent decades, were coupling initiated in the west/central Pacific. So your skepticism is understandable.

1972-73 redux.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Looks about right for Wilsonville. From 2013 to 2021 my brother lived there and told me he hadn't seen more than a few inches all at once that whole time. Bad area for snow. 

I remember the big November flooding event in 2006 really well. I think there was a lot of damage in the SW part of Mount Rainier National park where the Nisqually river jumped its banks. Cougar Rock campground upstream from Longmire was almost entirely destroyed. Washington state’s 24-hour rainfall record was also set during that event, at June Lake on the southern slopes of Mt. St. Helens. Highway 35 was washed out on the SE side of Mt Hood by the raging White River. Portland had a very balmy high of 68 at the peak of that event. I remember going with my brother and my cousin to see Borat in the theater that day. Lol.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Looks about right for Wilsonville. From 2013 to 2021 my brother lived there and told me he hadn't seen more than a few inches all at once that whole time. Bad area for snow. 

Looks like they had about 4" with the 2/22/23 - 2/23/23 storm? That area has really been unlucky recently. Did Wilsonville not get much in February 2014? I thought totals 6"-10"+ were pretty widespread there

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I'm sure you noticed in a few of my later videos, my lens is doing a clicking. I think there is a setting that can reduce it but I'm too lazy to try to figure this out. It's worked for several years though so I shouldn't complain.

I just looked at your last vid and didn’t notice any clicking, FWIW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

South Falls, just a couple miles from here. So blessed to live next to such a scenic wonder. I believe this was taken on Tuesday. 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1972-73 redux.

1972 was one of the “coolest” post-WWII summers on record here. Also very frequent thunderstorm activity due to 500mb troughing enhancing mid level lapse rates.

I’d happily take it. Won’t happen, though.  

[MossMan]

It’s raining! Temp up to 40.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I just looked at your last vid and didn’t notice any clicking, FWIW.

It was short, and had it propped so it wasn't auto-focusing on new objects if it was the thunder boom you saw.

And sound is oddly suppressed, it seems like one time when water got into a speaker it made it goofy after that. Hail, and especially some types of thunder just don't come out right anymore. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

South Falls, just a couple miles from here. So blessed to live next to such a scenic wonder. I believe this was taken on Tuesday. 

It’s just like living in a movie documentary postcard Andrew.

[Gradient Keeper]

7 days until the Midnight Euro run is back. That I will NOT look forward to. Those 8-9 PM BBQs when it's 85-90 F outside though...

[Phil]

Roundy’s perspective. No El Niño in the 21st century has developed this way, so the evolution would be a first in many members’ lifetimes.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s just like living in a movie documentary postcard Andrew.

As awesome as people think Silver Falls is, it is underrrated. Nothing like it in the Western Cascade Foothills. Though the number of California license plates on a weekend is annoying, All the doofy Californian's chaining up this afternoon was kind of funny. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Roundy’s perspective. No El Niño in the 21st century has developed this way, so the evolution would be a first in many members’ lifetimes.

 

The worm has turned. The switch has flipped. We are in a Western DOMINANT pattern now. My condolences. 

Edited March 6, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The worm has turned. The switch has flipped. We are in a Western DOMINANT pattern now. My condolences. 

Mr. Niño will put an end to that.

Or at the very least you’ll be joining me in the hotbox.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Mr. Niño will put an end to that.

Or at the very least you’ll be joining me in the hotbox.

Unlikely. Things are different now. Perhaps you join in the icebox. But the paradigm you take for granted is DEAD.

[Phil]

The current 500mb pattern is almost a clone of January 1969. Timing just a bit off this year.

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As awesome as people think Silver Falls is, it is underrrated. Nothing like it in the Western Cascade Foothills. Though the number of California license plates on a weekend is annoying, All the doofy Californian's chaining up this afternoon was kind of funny. 

Similar geography to the Columbia Gorge waterfalls, just displaced to the south along the cascade foothills. Columbia River basalt flows responsible for the formations made it all the way down there during the Miocene. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Similar geography to the Columbia Gorge waterfalls, just displaced to the south along the cascade foothills. Columbia River basalt flows responsible for the formations made it all the way down there during the Miocene. 

Are you familiar with Abiqua Falls?

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Unlikely. Things are different now. Perhaps you join in the icebox. But the paradigm you take for granted is DEAD.

Prepare yourself.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Prepare yourself.

Dumbest post of the year. 

[smerfylicious]

Good thing I started my seeds this week. Gonna have plenty of planting time for my tomatoes

[Phil]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Dumbest post of the year. 

Your grand total next winter will be 0”.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Your grand total next winter will be 0”.

Absolute crust. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Your grand total next winter will be 0”.

Someone please tag this b*llshit. So we can run it back in a year. 

Weenie just got HOSED this winter. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Your grand total next winter will be 0”.

I just saved this in my “In Your Face” folder to bring out next season!  

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Someone please tag this b*llshit. So we can run it back in a year. 

Weenie just got HOSED this winter. 

Haha I did before you even mentioned it!

[Phil]

Just now, MossMan said:

I just saved this in my “In Your Face” folder to bring out next season!  

Would be hilarious if I’m right.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Haha I did before you even mentioned it!

I LUV U

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Would be hilarious if I’m right.  

Could be, who knows, but probably not. We in the 50s now. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could be, who knows, but probably not. We in the 50s now. 

You sound like me in 2015/16.

Little did I know…