PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Phil]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

The current 500mb pattern is almost a clone of January 1969. Timing just a bit off this year.

I wasn’t kidding about this one.

A bit more STJ, but a near perfect clone above 30N. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

You sound like me in 2015/16.

Little did I know…

We have no clue. Perhaps we will have a lame year, they do and will happen, but we have turned the corner. We are in the NXT Generation.

[MossMan]

Temp has dropped from 40 to 37 in 15min…But still all liquid. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have no clue. Perhaps we will have a lame year, they do and will happen, but we have turned the corner. We are in the NXT Generation.

Glass-half-full Andrew is definitely more fun than the depressed-existentialist Andrew.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have no clue. Perhaps we will have a lame year, they do and will happen, but we have turned the corner. We are in the NXT Generation.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Phil’s phback!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Are you familiar with Abiqua Falls?

Yes. Hiked back there a couple times. Great columnar basalt. Shellburg falls near Lyons is also part of the same geologic formation as Silver and Abiqua. We did a really nice hike up there in early May of 2019. Glad we saw it before it was totally devastated by the Santiam Canyon fire.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Phil’s phback!!

I should mod-preview myself on Sunday nights. There’s no better time for shïtposting.

[BLI snowman]

DCA has only had 47.7" of snow since 2016. Both SEA and PDX are ahead.

DC area is basically Raleigh now.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

DCA has only had 47.7" of snow since 2016. Both SEA and PDX are ahead.

DC area is basically Raleigh now.

Hell DCA is more like Savannah GA while the surrounding area is like Raleigh. At best.

That 106°F record is gonna get torpedoed any year now.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hell DCA is more like Savannah GA while the surrounding area is like Raleigh. At best.

That 106°F record is gonna get torpedoed any year now.

We're better than you for heat, too.

Weakass climate.

[bainbridgekid]

35 degrees and dumping wet snow here. Not close to sticking but the flakes are huge. Would have snowed a couple inches here this evening if it were 2-3 degrees colder.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

We're better than you for heat, too.

Weakass climate.

We’re basically Hawaii now. Same temps year round, only difference is rainfall/moisture.

Actually I take that back. My cousins from Everett couldn’t even handle a low 80s afternoon last June. I don’t think PNW people understand what real heat is.

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

So is that a couple random snowflakes or dumping snow with roads covered and trees flocked?   Or something in between? 

What in the actual phuck is wrong with you?  Serious question...  

[SnowySeeker50]

Good old 34 degree rain here.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Good old 34 degree rain here.

The worst kind of rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yes. Hiked back there a couple times. Great columnar basalt. Shellburg falls near Lyons is also part of the same geologic formation as Silver and Abiqua. We did a really nice hike up there in early May of 2019. Glad we saw it before it was totally devastated by the Santiam Canyon fire.

Yeah Shellburg got fucxked! It was nice but it burned bad! Even the trailhead months later along Fern Ridge rd was smoldering. The ridge above Abiqua Falls burned, but the area around the falls did not. Have you ever been to Butte Creek Falls?! 

[Phil]

La Niña signature taking a beating, almost neutral now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah Shellburg got fucxked! It was nice but it burned bad! Even the trailhead months later along Fern Ridge rd was smoldering. The ridge above Abiqua Falls burned, but the area around the falls did not. Have you ever been to Butte Creek Falls?! 

Yeah, I think we went there one of the times we went to Abiqua. Same road system iirc. Crooked finger!

[snow_wizard]

42 minutes ago, Phil said:

I wasn’t kidding about this one.

A bit more STJ, but a near perfect clone above 30N. 

It was shifted just a tad east in 1969.  That tad is a very big deal for MBY.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

La Niña signature taking a beating, almost neutral now.

Absolute dead on classic -PDO signature there though.  We finally got that horseshoe really carved out.

[snow_wizard]

One thing to remember about tonight is it's going to freeze later with the wet roads.  Could be quite icy in places.

[Phil]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Absolute dead on classic -PDO signature there though.  We finally got that horseshoe really carved out.

Definitely. And a Niño that builds from the EPAC would actually help augment the cooling in the subtropical NPAC.

Very different from the 2015 type El Niño formation, should it actually occur. There are only one or two examples in the satellite era. It was more common in the 1960s/70s.

[Doinko]

This happened in a Super Niño

[snow_wizard]

I'm actually getting some convective type stuff here.  Ice pellets, snow pellets, wet snow, and rain.

[bainbridgekid]

Some of these flakes are 2 inches across and it’s down to 33.3 and starting to stick to cars and grass now. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Definitely. And a Niño that builds from the EPAC would actually help augment the cooling in the subtropical NPAC.

Very different from the 2015 type El Niño formation, should it actually occur. There are only one or two examples in the satellite era. It was more common in the 1960s/70s.

Interesting.  1968-69 and 1972-73 are two of the most famous cases of a Nino working out well for us.

[bainbridgekid]

@MossManbased on radar it may be about to dump snow there. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Some of these flakes are 2 inches across and it’s down to 33.3 and starting to stick to cars and grass now. 

IMG_6934.MOV

Now that is WET snow!

[Omegaraptor]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

We’re basically Hawaii now. Same temps year round, only difference is rainfall/moisture.

Actually I take that back. My cousins from Everett couldn’t even handle a low 80s afternoon last June. I don’t think PNW people understand what real heat is.

DC is basically Dubai or Qatar nowadays.

Also Everett =/= the entire PNW

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This happened in a Super Niño

5 consecutive below zero.  That is straight up crazy.

[Phil]

Interestingly the EPS monthlies picked up on the EPAC warming from last Nov/Dec. Underestimated the PDO/NPMM, though.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

DC is basically Dubai or Qatar nowadays.

Some parts of the PNW do get real heat. Everett kinda isn't representative of the whole region.

My *average* daily maximum heat index over the last three July’s is 99°F. And that’s without any major ridging.

The next true death ridge summer might be what finally forces me out of here. And it’s due sooner rather than later.

[Phil]

New EPS monthlies also going with the EPAC building niño.

[smerfylicious]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

My *average* daily maximum heat index over the last three July’s is 99°F. And that’s without any major ridging.

The next true death ridge summer might be what finally forces me out of here. And it’s due sooner rather than later.

You need to get out of there Phil. Come to our neck of the woods and get hype with 20" kuchera maps only to get a slight drizzle

[MossMan]

15 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

@MossManbased on radar it may be about to dump snow there. 

Temp down to 36 and it looks a bit lumpy out there now! 

[Omegaraptor]

19 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This happened in a Super Niño

Would be nice to see a large number of -30 readings pop up in central OR and northeast CA again.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Roundy’s perspective. No El Niño in the 21st century has developed this way, so the evolution would be a first in many members’ lifetimes.

 

That dude don't know shittt. Good god..

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Had some wet snow with that wimpy shower that passed through over here.

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

The worst kind of rain.

No, wrong again.