Jump to content

PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


Requiem

Recommended Posts

Per the ECMWF... it looks like a fairly quiet week ahead with some rain this afternoon and tomorrow and another front early Wednesday morning and then dry again through late Sunday.     The Thursday - Sunday period looks fairly sunny and mild at this point with many places getting close to 60. 

SEA is just about right at average precip for the month now but the ECMWF shows only about .50 inch for the coming week... more down south though with Portland around an inch.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SLE hit 30 this morning before the rain moved in. Through the first 11 days of the month they are running 1.2F colder than January. 😂

  • Like 1
  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The final snow of the epic 2019 awesome stretch! Perhaps we will have a February/March 2019 redux this November/December! 

207BFD58-9B44-4A6A-8E7B-7A31EB2BF30B.jpeg

  • Excited 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the rain is almost to my backyard. Had frost on the roof this morning with a low of 34. Currently 46 and cloudy.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Treated to a beautiful afternoon out at the coast on Saturday. Still some very low snow levels with spots in the Coast Range around 400' holding onto some patches, and a lot of snow above 1000'.

YBa85jw_enzv2fyRou3tdwT6b6sbTE2F7SgLwlC9

 

IB8Q5ydQ_Gpm241P1CDOvMCMKQA_mjH5lf7ZungaD1TfsKsQoSnwtaI2VlKTcBY3wFU6KDbl54v4Y-VG

Can’t see the photos.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Active west coast storm track continues through D15 on the 00z EPS, w/ positive departures creeping back into OR/WA.

1063DE65-5C36-4AE5-95C7-A80C4C17A324.gif

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Can’t see the photos.

I can

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Offshore flow cranking in the foothills... drying up the precip as it moves in and the sky is bright.   Temps into the low 50s out here at most stations while its only 41 at SEA.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Phil said:

41°F with solar disk visible behind the cloud deck, but apparently it’s wetbulbing ftw.

E1F45D1C-CD78-4A2F-92AE-F6B3C32ED9BD.jpeg

Nevermind, failsauce. :lol: I think we’ve dethroned North Bend as the drizzle capital of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Nevermind, failsauce. :lol: I think we’ve dethroned North Bend as the drizzle capital of the world.

Not even close to the capital... that would have to be a cold coastal location somewhere in the world.    😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not even close to the capital... that would have to be a cold coastal location somewhere in the world.    😀

It's probably somewhere in the Southern Ocean.

Macquarie Island gets 317 precipitation days annually and 39" annual rainfall. 55 of those days are snow days: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Island#Climate

(keep in mind it's also extremely windy)

  • Like 2
  • Sick 1
  • Spam 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

7km ain’t s**t. We need Yellowstone to pop off ASAP.

  • Like 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

It's probably somewhere in the Southern Ocean.

Macquarie Island gets 317 precipitation days annually and 39" annual rainfall: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Island#Climate

(keep in mind it's also extremely windy)

And cold... every month of the year has an average high in the 40s. 

  • Sick 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

There were 87 volcanic eruptions around the world in 2022 from 80 different volcanoes.

  • scream 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW there’s no sign of enhanced tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with +H2O feedback following the Tonga eruption.

Stratospheric H2O doesn’t seem to produce the same degree of radiative forcing that (modeled) tropospheric H2O does.

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That’s one heck of a STJ on the 12z Euro. Looks like a full blown east-based to canonical El Niño. Only giveaway that it’s not is the structure of the subtropical anticyclones.

Man if this pattern had happened in Jan/Feb we’d be buried under feet of snow by now. Not a cold pattern but would be cold enough. Instead it’s a mixy mess.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

FWIW there’s no sign of enhanced tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with +H2O feedback following the Tonga eruption.

Stratospheric H2O doesn’t seem to produce the same degree of radiative forcing that (modeled) tropospheric H2O does.

Sounds like it might be something they are monitoring for the next decade.   Of course there could be a multitude of mitigating and competing factors as well.  

https://phys.org/news/2023-01-tonga-eruption-chances-global-temperature.html

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s one heck of a STJ on the 12z Euro. Looks like a full blown east-based to canonical El Niño.

Man if this pattern had happened in Jan/Feb we’d be buried under feet of snow by now. Not a cold pattern but would be cold enough. Instead it’s a mixy mess.

No doubt... pretty crazy.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z200_speed-9378400.png

  • Shivering 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sounds like it might be something they are monitoring for the next decade.   Of course there could be a multitude of mitigating and competing factors as well.  

https://phys.org/news/2023-01-tonga-eruption-chances-global-temperature.html

Some degree of IR thermalization would be evident by now. The majority of the H2O emission spectra is dampened at that depth. Sure the oceans would take awhile to respond but the mid/upper troposphere would not.

Not that you’d expect the same hotspot signature that would manifest under the hypothetical H2O induced lapse rate feedback. But there are more than enough gases radiatively active in the IR spectra to reflect changes in RF in such a wide emission window.

In other words: crisis (probably) averted.

  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Central MA looks like it's going to see a big snowstorm with marginal temps, looks like 32-34 almost the whole time
qpf_acc-imp.us_ne.png
sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

I know someone in that area, they'll probably get buried by this storm

Time for New York to make up for its deficits. Maybe they will get more snow than Riverside, CA after all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Some degree of IR thermalization would be evident by now. The majority of the H2O emission spectra is dampened at that depth. Sure the oceans would take awhile to respond but the mid/upper troposphere would not.

Not that you’d expect the same hotspot signature that would manifest under the hypothetical H2O induced lapse rate feedback. But there are more than enough gases radiatively active in the IR spectra to reflect changes in RF in such a wide emission window.

In other words: crisis (probably) averted.

That would be good news if true.  

  • Like 1
  • Downvote 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also that article cannot be accurate. If the modeled radiative forcing is 0.12W/m^2, that could not possibly produce anywhere close to 1.5°C of warming, even under the most extreme constructive interference/positive feedback scenarios.

You’d need an ~ 3W/m^2 radiative forcing sustained over many years to produce an ~ 1°C warming. Given variability in heat flows associated with ENSO/circulation changes, it would probably take decades to become evident enough for attribution.

Context has to be missing somewhere. I’m surprised phys.org would publish an article like that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

What's your precip total so far this month?

.82 in North Bend and probably not much more here.   Hoping the system tomorrow can deliver an inch of rain out here.

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Central MA looks like it's going to see a big snowstorm with marginal temps, looks like 32-34 almost the whole time
qpf_acc-imp.us_ne.png
sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

I know someone in that area, they'll probably get buried by this storm

If I had time I’d drive up to Worcester MA for this one. Someone up there under the deform band pivot will get a quick thump of 2+ feet and strong mixed layer winds.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro shows a pretty decent stretch of warm days the 16th-18th. Looks like a good chance PDX sees their first 60 of the year somewhere in that period. Long range is still looking good for some troughing moving in afterward.

Hoping we can also score another day or two in the 40s at PDX to at least tie the number from 1984-85. Over the next ten days the window starts closing on that being a relatively easy task@BLI snowman

Edited by Cascadia_Wx
  • Like 1

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a a frosty low of 31 this morning. Clouds and precip are now moving in rapidly around sunrise. Making for a pretty cool sky with a bright sliver of red on the eastern horizon.

Looks like another solidly chilly day in the works.  43/29 here so far.

  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Yup, it's been a good run

We are trying to save the Earth for future generations (even though the Earth has been much warmer than this for 70% of the last 500 million years and we are here as a result of that warmth) but instead lets cheer for an extinction level event and wipe out all humans and kill off most plant life.  The rocks will be happy to get rid of all this annoying life everywhere.   😀

Of course that actually will happen at some point in the future.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...