PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like another solidly chilly day in the works.  43/29 here so far.

Thank your lucky stars you aren't out here where its been in the low 50s today.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like another solidly chilly day in the works.  43/29 here so far.

44/31 spread here so far.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z Euro shows a pretty decent stretch of warm days the 16th-18th. Looks like a good chance PDX sees their first 60 of the year somewhere in that period. Long range is still looking good for some troughing moving in afterward.

Hoping we can also score another day or two in the 40s at PDX to at least tie the number from 1984-85. Over the next ten days the window starts closing on that being a relatively easy task@BLI snowman

Pretty nice to be seeing some numbers lining up with the mid 1980s this season.  SEA has over 40 mins of 32 or below so far this season.  Only three other seasons have accomplished that since 1980.

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We are trying to save the Earth for future generations (even though the Earth has been much warmer than this for 70% of the last 500 million years and we are here as a result of that warmth) but instead lets cheer for an extinction level event and wipe out all humans and kill off most plant life.  The rocks will be happy to get rid of all this annoying life everywhere.   

Of course that actually will happen at some point in the future.   

We can try to save the Earth, but all the poor people who must live off of fossil fuels because they can't afford anything else will be at a major disadvantage. Climate equity?

[BLI snowman]

20 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z Euro shows a pretty decent stretch of warm days the 16th-18th. Looks like a good chance PDX sees their first 60 of the year somewhere in that period. Long range is still looking good for some troughing moving in afterward.

Hoping we can also score another day or two in the 40s at PDX to at least tie the number from 1984-85. Over the next ten days the window starts closing on that being a relatively easy task@BLI snowman

Today has a shot, will depend on how long the easterlies hold on tonight there.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

We can try to save the Earth, but all the poor people who must live off of fossil fuels will be at a major disadvantage. Climate equity?

I was just making a joke about Phil's comment... probably best not to get into politics on here.    Never goes well. 

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We are trying to save the Earth for future generations (even though the Earth has been much warmer than this for 70% of the last 500 million years and we are here as a result of that warmth) but instead lets cheer for an extinction level event and wipe out all humans and kill off most plant life.  The rocks will be happy to get rid of all this annoying life everywhere.   

Of course that actually will happen at some point in the future.   

I was recently reading an article where scientists actually state the Earth is several degrees too cold to be optimal for supporting life.  Amazing how you never hear the mainstream media talk about that.  I think they were saying a planet 7 degrees warmer would be the absolute best.  The article was about other planets that might be within range for us to visit someday.

Another tidbit I found years ago talks about paleo climatologists stating the climate on Earth has been as hospitable as it is now only 5% of the time over the past one million years.  Really nowhere to go but down from here.  The entire discussion about climate change in the media fails to provide any context whatsoever.  

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

We can try to save the Earth, but all the poor people who must live off of fossil fuels because they can't afford anything else will be at a major disadvantage. Climate equity?

I really hope we can figure out how to make solar work effectively.  That is the ultimate power source if we can figure it out.  Elon Musk thinks he has the answer, but so far no action on it.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Good lord…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

58 in south Eugene 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

58 in south Eugene 

Would be nice to get @TigerWoodsLibidoposting again one of these days. Probably in time for football players this summer.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS. The operational has been more aggressive with that secondary spike of ridging in week two than the mean.

[T-Town]

Where has @TacomaWx been?  No search party this time. 

[TT-SEA]

41 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Where has @TacomaWx been?  No search party this time. 

He let me know in a personal message that he was taking a break until possibly fall unless something major happens and didn't want everyone to worry.    

[TT-SEA]

Rain has beat out offshore flow... temp down to 48 and east wind has died.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Went up Spencer’s for

my wife’s birthday. Nice day. Interesting it’s almost 500’ higher than our house but no snow. You can see the legendary Autzen Stadium in the middle pic.

Edited March 12, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Phishy Wx]

first 50 IMBY since early November

[Dave]

60 burger achievement has been unlocked. Feels fantastic. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

60 at my in laws place pretty close to EUG. 

[Dave]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

60 at my in laws place pretty close to EUG. 

With all the chilly weather we've had, it feels more like 70.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

On an iphone?

Yep

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yep

I’m on iPhone 

[Cold Snap]

Well it only got down to 36 IMBY this morning so no freeze for me. Looks like there are more chances coming up though with Thursday morning looking like it could be quite chilly.

[Omegaraptor]

Drove from winter to spring. Car temp was reading mid-40s in Tigard and Wilsonville with steady rain. Switched to showers around Woodburn and temp was climbing. Got up to 60 by the I-5 Corvallis exit.

[MossMan]

51 for a high. Currently 43 with light rain. 
.03” so far on the day. 

[BLI snowman]

 

56 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m on iPhone 

 

Must be that Stampede Pass wifi.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

 

 

Must be that Stampede Pass wifi.

I heard they should be getting 3G up there in the next few years, that should help.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Well it only got down to 36 IMBY this morning so no freeze for me. Looks like there are more chances coming up though with Thursday morning looking like it could be quite chilly.

You got screwed last night.  Dropped to 29 here.

SEA put up a 47/31 for a -8 departure on the day.  Their 20th consecutive day with below normal temps.  The CF6 shows that yesterday was a zero, but the high was 2 below normal and the low was normal so that's a -1 in my book.

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

He let me know in a personal message that he was taking a break until possibly fall unless something major happens and didn't want everyone to worry.    

That's a long break.  I would have to think some thunderstorm potential might change this.

[snow_wizard]

Interestingly the 12z ECMWF showed only 0.3" of precip after tonight for the next 10 days for SEA.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not seeing a WWB signature here.  Looks pretty Ninaish in fact....favorable for good trade winds in the tropical Pacific.  The SOI hasn't really flopped either...at least nearly to the degree people were talking about.

[Cold Snap]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

You got screwed last night.  Dropped to 29 here.

SEA put up a 47/31 for a -8 departure on the day.  Their 20th consecutive day with below normal temps.  The CF6 shows that yesterday was a zero, but the high was 2 below normal and the low was normal so that's a -1 in my book.

After seeing that SEA put up a freeze and I somehow didn’t I went back and checked and I think it was just a sensor error because all the ones around me showed 30/31 while the one by me showed 36. Kind of strange but I feel like those errors just happen sometimes.

[Cascadia_Wx]

45/31 day here so far. Mostly cloudy with light east wind and rain at times. Chilly spread for mid March, should hold assuming the southerlies stay away until after midnight.

[ShawniganLake]

36F.  Had a bunch of heavy rain that was pretty splatty at times this afternoon.  

[snow_wizard]

I just watched the final episode for the season of The Last of Us.  I highly recommend this series for anyone that hasn't seen it yet.  Very powerful!

[snow_wizard]

The reaction to my ENSO posts has sure been sour lately.  Am I not allowed to post my opinion that I think the coming El Nino hype is over the top?

Just going by past history alone of where we are now it's highly unlikely that we see anything warmer than a weak Nino, and even that might be pushing it.  I just have yet to see proof of anything warmer than that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The reaction to my ENSO posts has sure been sour lately.  Am I not allowed to post my opinion that I think the coming El Nino hype is over the top?

Just going by past history alone of where we are now it's highly unlikely that we see anything warmer than a weak Nino, and even that might be pushing it.  I just have yet to see proof of anything warmer than that.

I agree with you. Others are just pushing a narrative. 

[Phil]

48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree with you. Others are just pushing a narrative. 

Bruh you’re the king of narratives.

[Cold Snap]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The reaction to my ENSO posts has sure been sour lately.  Am I not allowed to post my opinion that I think the coming El Nino hype is over the top?

Just going by past history alone of where we are now it's highly unlikely that we see anything warmer than a weak Nino, and even that might be pushing it.  I just have yet to see proof of anything warmer than that.

Other people are saying else wise but I hope you are right. Maybe with a weak Nino we get a feb 2019 repeat! Jan 2020 also happened in a warm neutral and that ended up pretty good snow wise IMBY.

[Phil]

Niño 3 is almost +0.3°C now.