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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Other people are saying else wise but I hope you are right. Maybe with a weak Nino we get a feb 2019 repeat! Jan 2020 also happened in a warm neutral and that ended up pretty good snow wise IMBY.

Yeah 19-20 was a legit Nino. Just some people pushing false narratives out of desperation. But maybe next winter will be a dud. Oh well. We just had a great one. One for the ages.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just got home. Not as much melting today as I had expected. Still 10” on the deck. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah 19-20 was a legit Nino. Just some people pushing false narratives out of desperation. But maybe next winter will be a dud. Oh well. We just had a great one. One for the ages.

What false narratives are being pushed?

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

What false narratives are being pushed?

That we are heading toward a super Nino blowtorch. Not necessarily accusing you. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That we are heading toward a super Nino blowtorch. Not necessarily accusing you. 

Can’t be a “false narrative” if it hasn’t happened yet. It is a possible outcome, among many.

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.72 in North Bend and .79 at the station near me and raining hard to enough to hear it on the roof.     Hopefully this will wake up the landscape.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I just watched the final episode for the season of The Last of Us.  I highly recommend this series for anyone that hasn't seen it yet.  Very powerful!

I have been watching it as well and saw the season finale last night.   I loved it but certainly not clear cut who is good and who is bad.  You could argue that our protagonists are actually the bad guys.   My wife gave up on it after the second episode because she could not buy the premise that people turn into carnivorous plants within minutes of being infected.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah 19-20 was a legit Nino. Just some people pushing false narratives out of desperation. But maybe next winter will be a dud. Oh well. We just had a great one. One for the ages.

Some people are desperate for a super Nino?   I guess maybe Phil would love it.  I would very much prefer to avoid that outcome.   Neutral is the most enjoyable in my opinion.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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74AEE3F0-CEB7-467D-ACB8-27022AB94EA8.jpegNasty out there.

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

74AEE3F0-CEB7-467D-ACB8-27022AB94EA8.jpegNasty out there.

Wow... so much for bare ground by Monday.  😀

I see that ground fog hovering above the snow cover indicating its melting and transitioning from solid to a vapor.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... so much for bare ground by Monday.  😀

I see that ground fog hovering above the snow cover indicating its melting and transitioning from solid to a vapor.  

It indicates a cold layer of air against the ground (caused by the snowpack) which is forcing moisture to condense. Moisture is also condensing directly onto the snow, releasing latent heat and helping to melt it.

What is not happening is much evaporation.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... so much for bare ground by Monday.  😀

I see that ground fog hovering above the snow cover indicating its melting and transitioning from solid to a vapor.  

Yeah. Quite moist out there today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The reaction to my ENSO posts has sure been sour lately.  Am I not allowed to post my opinion that I think the coming El Nino hype is over the top?

Just going by past history alone of where we are now it's highly unlikely that we see anything warmer than a weak Nino, and even that might be pushing it.  I just have yet to see proof of anything warmer than that.

I don't think anyone is genuinely anticipating a raging Nino this winter, but Nina is certainly done (officially). The question is warm neutral or weak Nino IMHO.

A weak Nina seems as likely as a strong Nino at this point, so your posts do come across as if Nina isn't gone and is coming back. We can still get good events with neutral or even weak Nino, don't worry so much about it.

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Sure is a wet day so far up here. Nice to see. Well over a half inch so far today with more on the way. 

We also never got a warm up. Wind went from east overnight to NNW this morning without ever switching to south. High of just 47 so far today and that should be staying steady or even going down as the afternoon progresses, as this anafront-esque system slowly makes its way in.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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10 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

I don't think anyone is genuinely anticipating a raging Nino this winter, but Nina is certainly done (officially). The question is warm neutral or weak Nino IMHO.

A weak Nina seems as likely as a strong Nino at this point, so your posts do come across as if Nina isn't gone and is coming back. We can still get good events with neutral or even weak Nino, don't worry so much about it.

Yeah, I agree. Nina is over. For a triple dip, it was pretty legit. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Snow pack in solid shape. 

F21E8A2D-15DE-4BFE-BE27-691EBC6201ED.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snow pack in solid shape. 

F21E8A2D-15DE-4BFE-BE27-691EBC6201ED.png

These objectively easier to read maps show the same thing Andrew 

09CF621F-7F44-46DA-8979-B69C51F12920.png

697AB1F3-D7D2-42D1-BAB3-C7009F5215DB.png
 

Oregon and SW Washington are looking fantastic. North Cascades could use some work. Hopefully they get a good and wet spring up that way.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

These objectively easier to read maps show the same thing Andrew 

09CF621F-7F44-46DA-8979-B69C51F12920.png

697AB1F3-D7D2-42D1-BAB3-C7009F5215DB.png
 

Oregon and SW Washington are looking fantastic. North Cascades could use some work. Hopefully they get a good and wet spring up that way.

Kind of repetitive with the Oregon map, but I agree. Hopefully Washington is blessed with the kind of cool/wet spring we had down here last year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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35 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Sure is a wet day so far up here. Nice to see. Well over a half inch so far today with more on the way. 

We also never got a warm up. Wind went from east overnight to NNW this morning without ever switching to south. High of just 47 so far today and that should be staying steady or even going down as the afternoon progresses, as this anafront-esque system slowly makes its way in.

Might tie that 1984-85 benchmark at PDX today.  Good chance we add another <50 day tomorrow as well.

About as chilly of a first half of March as you can get without any true arctic air in the region.

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SCORE?!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_56.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Might tie that 1984-85 benchmark at PDX today.  Good chance we add another <50 day tomorrow as well.

About as chilly of a first half of March as you can get without any true arctic air in the region.

If that 60 doesn't happen this week, it could be a while. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There has simply never been a quadruple-dip Niña since modern record keeping began.  Very safe to assume La Niña is ending.

Yeah, the debate around it is one of those time wasting forum quagmires. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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0.84" at SLE the past 6 hours. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Over an inch of rain now on the day at SLE. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Moderate to heavy rain all morning here and the temp has fallen from 47 around sunrise to 42. Just surpassed an inch on the day. This anafront is really performing well.

The nice thing is after this we could clear out this evening and pick up another frost. The beat rolls on.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Nice to have a decent rain event for the wettest day since 12/27/22, although as usual, the best action remains to the north.

0.67" on the day, and knocking on 2" for the month. 18" on the water year.

Really though the very best action has been to the south since January. The snowpack maps posted in the other page illustrate this pretty well too. California wasn’t included but as has been mentioned the Sierras are seeing record breaking snowfall, especially south of Yosemite.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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14 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Nice to have a decent rain event for the wettest day since 12/27/22, although as usual, the best action remains to the north.

0.67" on the day, and knocking on 2" for the month.

Probably the furthest north of anyone who regularly posts here and I got 0.65" from this system (which has now departed from my area and it’s getting sunny).

It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Jim might like this: oni.png

The last two triple-dip La Niñas ended in 1976 and 2001. The former was followed by neutral conditions, the latter by a moderate El Niño. Takeaway is that neither was followed by a strong El Niño.

You forgot 1954-1957 which was followed by the 1957/58 Niño.

And FWIW the 1998/99-2000/01 Niña was followed by ENSO neutral in 2001/02 then El Niño in 2002/03. And though 1976/77 wasn’t an El Niño, it did mark the “great pacific climate shift”.

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