PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

44F with some heavy rain. Sure is nice.

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Right. I guess I was thinking that Eugene was in the "screw zone" with areas both to the north and to the south doing better in terms of water-year-to-date precipitation, but it seems that the differences aren't substantial, at least if the ACIS maps mean anything.

Really hoping we can all catch up at some point. At least the mountains are doing well, I think they are above average for snowpack despite precip being below average thanks to the fact that the storms, when they do hit, have been cold overall this winter. Very little rain above 2,000 in the Cascades.

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

You forgot 1954-1957 which was followed by the 1957/58 Niño.

And FWIW the 1998/99-2000/01 Niña was followed by ENSO neutral in 2001/02 then El Niño in 2002/03. And though 1976/77 wasn’t an El Niño, it did mark the “great pacific climate shift”.

Pretty sure 1976-77 was a weak Nino, which carried over into the following winter as well. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

44F with some heavy rain. Sure is nice.

Nice to see you back!

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Beautiful day here now. Sunny and breezy.  Officially firing up the lawn mowers for the season.  

Some major dumpage down here! 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty sure 1976-77 was a weak Nino, which carried over into the following winter as well. 

IIRC it didn’t meet that threshold for the required 5+ consecutive months? Possible l’m misremembering though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We will see where things go, but I am thinking weak Nino. 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We will see where things go, but I am thinking weak Nino. 

 

Take it to the ENSO thread buddy.

[Tyler Mode]

My high was 49 at 2:15 this morning, now 41 with 1.01" of rain so far...

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OMG

Down to 39.8F with moderate rain here so I figured the snow level was coming down. Interesting since there were multiple posts last week saying the Anafront situation for today was DOA. What are your thoughts Andrew?

Edited March 13, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

IIRC it didn’t meet that threshold for the required 5+ consecutive months? Possible l’m misremembering though. 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

It did, and peaked very slightly stronger than 1977-78. 

'78 was a more classic Nino winter pattern though with the raging STJ vs. the coked out Rex Block of '77.

[BLI snowman]

Front's making very slow progress but thinking back edge will be through here by 3pm. Models were mostly a little too quick to heave it on out of here.

 

Edited March 13, 2023 by BLI snowman

[LowerGarfield]

51 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Right. I guess I was thinking that Eugene was in the "screw zone" with areas both to the north and to the south doing better in terms of water-year-to-date precipitation, but it seems that the differences aren't substantial, at least if the ACIS maps mean anything.

I'm in the green which is good. It just seems dry by comparison to last year's snowy and then rainy spring.

[Omegaraptor]

Almost the entire CONUS painted blue on CPC 8-14 day.

Winter is not going down without some kicking and screaming this year.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I'm in the green which is good. It just seems dry by comparison to last year's snowy and then rainy spring.

For our place in Twisp the rainy spring really didn't get going until late April I thought. It was pretty dry in March. I think Spokane area may have had a wetter March than us but not sure how your area did. 

[Tyler Mode]

This is looking nice!

The SW has been incredibly dry too, not just California.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WHAT THE...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Down to 39.8F with moderate rain here so I figured the snow level was coming down. Interesting since there were multiple posts last week saying the Anafront situation for today was DOA. What are your thoughts Andrew?

Tim was wrong?

[Phishy Wx]

50 and Cloudy

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We will see where things go, but I am thinking weak Nino. 

 

The only thing that gives me pause about predicting a stronger niño is the fact that EPAC initiated events have been few and far between in the satellite era. We attempted an EPAC event in spring/summer 2012 but it failed.

However, the lack of an Indo-Pacific low pass signal in VP/U-wind does distinguish this year from 2012, so in theory, large scale boundary conditions are more favorable now.

[Anti Marine Layer]

42 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

This is looking nice!

The SW has been incredibly dry too, not just California.

What about Los Angeles? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing down to about 800' now. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

50 and Cloudy

Looks like Spokane’s official station (GEG) could hit 50 for the first time since early November today. They are currently 49.

A spring like temp profile throughout the region today, one of the first days areas in the Columbia Basin have been significantly warmer than the west side. Up to 63 in Pasco on the hour, 59 in Hermiston, 69!! in Hermiston.

[SunAndSnow]

1.4” so far today. High of 50° was at 8:30am, 41° now. Big pipe is overflowing too.

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

It did, and peaked very slightly stronger than 1977-78. 

'78 was a more classic Nino winter pattern though with the raging STJ vs. the coked out Rex Block of '77.

Thanks. I thought I had the ONI memorized but apparently not, heh.

At the very least it was clearly a +ENSO favored circulation in the NH, irrespective of +/- a few tenths of a degree in niño-3.4.

[Phil]

53 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Almost the entire CONUS painted blue on CPC 8-14 day.

Winter is not going down without some kicking and screaming this year.

Now if we could just continue this pattern into the summer months, that would be a real blessing.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

Now if we could just continue this pattern into the summer months, that would be a real blessing.

It’s kind of an odd map. Not sure what the big blue circle from the Portland area to Salt Lake City is.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Drakes Crossing's station has dropped from 46 at 10am to 32. 

[Doinko]

1.29" of rain at PDX yesterday and today so far. Only 0.85" at Hillsboro though

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Drakes Crossing's station has dropped from 46 at 10am to 32. 

Meanwhile its above freezing at 4350' at Wanderer's Peak. 

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Moderate to heavy rain all morning here and the temp has fallen from 47 around sunrise to 42. Just surpassed an inch on the day. This anafront is really performing well.

The nice thing is after this we could clear out this evening and pick up another frost. The beat rolls on.

0 above average days at PDX this month so far.

[Cold Snap]

Looking like 60s are possible in some places including MBY Friday and Saturday. Would be the first 60 degree reading of the year IMBY.

[Omegaraptor]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

0 above average days at PDX this month so far.

Today should be the 21st below average day in a row. Shades of February 2019.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Will be interesting to see what we add to our total today. Looks like things should be winding down now. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

0 above average days at PDX this month so far.

Should keep that up through at least Thursday. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Will be interesting to see what we add to our total today. Looks like things should be winding down now. 

The big melt is not going as planned this week.

[High Desert Mat?]

Temp was 55 about an hour ago and since it started raining 40 min ago the temp dropped to 37 with a mix of rain and snow. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty gross day, but at least it gave us some well below normal temps again.  Clearing up just in time to get cold tonight as well.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty gross day, but at least it gave us some well below normal temps again.  Clearing up just in time to get cold tonight as well.

It was not "gross" to get a solid soaking of rain... it was very much needed and should begin to wake everything up.