PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble has really locked in on a nice cold snap with unseasonably cold 850s for the 23rd through 27th at least.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS 10 Day Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

I can't see it sticking below 700' it's just chilly onshore flow and we will be moving into late March.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is legit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Let's do this in January next year...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run gives us 21" on the Kuchera, 35" 10:1, this late in the year, definitely not going to get 10:1 ratios. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It looks like the CFS is now going for a solidly chilly April. That model seems to default to warm and then as the next month approaches will flip to cold if a cold month is coming up. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run gives us 21" on the Kuchera, 35" 10:1, this late in the year, definitely not going to get 10:1 ratios. 

I am up way too early... but fell asleep at 9 p.m. so got 8 hours.

I expect very little snow in my area.    The basic pattern is the same as its been for the last month and that did almost nothing here.

But is nice to see that Tuesday and Wednesday have been trending even warmer.   Wednesday should be similar to Saturday.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF showed the sharp contrast again between BC and WA and the rest of the west coast.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It looks like the CFS is now going for a solidly chilly April. That model seems to default to warm and then as the next month approaches will flip to cold if a cold month is coming up. 

I will mention that in the latest Ag Weather forecast... they thought the first half of April might be colder than normal across the west based on the MJO emerging back into phase 7.

And that is what the ECMWF is showing at the beginning of April:

[TT-SEA]

Warm morning... 49 at SEA and 52 in North Bend.    Looks like SEA got down to 46 earlier.   

06Z ECMWF is slower with the arrival of the rain today... not as close to the Seattle area at 5 p.m. as the previous runs.    Should be another nice day but with more clouds with the warmest temps in the EPSL and foothills again.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am up way too early... but fell asleep at 9 p.m. so got 8 hours.

I expect very little snow in my area.    The basic pattern is the same as its been for the last month and that did almost nothing here.

But is nice to see that Tuesday and Wednesday have been trending even warmer.   Wednesday should be similar to Saturday.

I haven’t slept a wink. Where are Jesse s drugs when I need them. 

[Phil]

9 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Would be unusual to be puking that long from Norovirus.  She’s more likely pregnant. 

you trying to give me a panic attack? We’ve taken basically every precaution, would have to be a massive fluke.

[Phil]

00z EPS. I see blue (Da Ba Dee).

 

[GHweatherChris]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

you trying to give me a panic attack? We’ve taken basically every precaution, would have to be a massive fluke.

Abstinence is the only sure fire precaution.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, Phil said:

you trying to give me a panic attack? We’ve taken basically every precaution, would have to be a massive fluke.

That’s what Jesus mom thought too!

[Deweydog]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That’s what Jesus mom thought too!

I’ve always imagined that when she finally went to the doctor and found out the first words out of her mouth were JESUS CHRIST!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a low of 42 here. Now partly to mostly cloudy and 49. Rain should be here by 2-3pm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a low of 42 here. Now partly to mostly cloudy and 49. Rain should be here by 2-3pm.

Our freeze streak is over. Looks like we went 26 consecutive days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today will likely be our last day of continuous snowcover too. That will be a 26 day streak as well. 2nd longest since I've been here. We went from Feb 3 - March 21 with continuous snow cover in 2019. Historically speaking the big snow years up here generally melt out around March 15-20th. 

Edited Sunday at 04:56 PM by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS kind of got lost in cutoff land mid-range. The GEM does no such thing and is dropping another monster on us at the end. 

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z GFS kind of got lost in cutoff land mid-range. The GEM does no such thing and is dropping another monster on us at the end. 

March-May every year.

Reminiscent of the late 2000s/early 2010s ECMWF tendency to put a cutoff ULL over the SW US. The next GFS upgrade in 2024/2025 should address this issue. I hope.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

March-May every year.

Reminiscent of the late 2000s/early 2010s ECMWF tendency to put a cutoff ULL over the SW US. The next GFS upgrade in 2024/2025 should address this issue. I hope.

All in all, the next 2-3 weeks look to be a continuation of the pattern we have seen since mid-February. At least out here. 

[MossMan]

Tankage. 

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All in all, the next 2-3 weeks look to be a continuation of the pattern we have seen since mid-February. At least out here. 

Yeah looks like it. But I’m skeptical the cool/wet pattern will continue beyond mid-April. Lowpass constructed analogs converge to a much drier-looking pattern in W-Canada/PNW from mid/late April through mid/late May, while the Southwest/Interior West continue with a cool/wet theme (probably due to ULL activity associated with the STJ).

But it’s a very different pattern than those of the last few years at that stage. It was clear early-on in both 2021 and 2022 that the 4CH was going to be a beast heading into the warm season. Not the case this year.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah looks like it. But I’m skeptical the cool/wet pattern will continue beyond mid-April. Lowpass constructed analogs converge to a much drier-looking pattern in W-Canada/PNW from mid/late April through mid/late May, while the Southwest/Interior West continue with a cool/wet theme (probably due to ULL activity associated with the STJ).

But it’s a very different pattern than those of the last few years at that stage. It was clear in both 2021 and 2022 that the 4CH was going to be a beast. Not the case this year.

Would that increase chances for thunderstorms here?

[snow_wizard]

Dry pattern for WA, BC, and less so for OR is locking in it would appear.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Would that increase chances for thunderstorms here?

I don’t know enough about PNW thunderstorm climatology to say one way or another.

[snow_wizard]

9 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS 10 Day Snowfall totals

If I could have a dollar for every inch it has shown for me since mid Feb I could go on a nice vacation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah looks like it. But I’m skeptical the cool/wet pattern will continue beyond mid-April. Lowpass constructed analogs converge to a much drier-looking pattern in W-Canada/PNW from mid/late April through mid/late May, while the Southwest/Interior West continue with a cool/wet theme (probably due to ULL activity associated with the STJ).

But it’s a very different pattern than those of the last few years at that stage. It was clear early-on in both 2021 and 2022 that the 4CH was going to be a beast heading into the warm season. Not the case this year.

This makes sense. The pattern evolution is quite a bit different this year than last. We had a cold snap at the end of last February too, but it was more of a one off, March was fairly mild overall, the default troughing set up much later on. 

[snow_wizard]

47 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Today will likely be our last day of continuous snowcover too. That will be a 26 day streak as well. 2nd longest since I've been here. We went from Feb 3 - March 21 with continuous snow cover in 2019. Historically speaking the big snow years up here generally melt out around March 15-20th. 

2019 was like that up here too.  Places just north of me had continuous snow cover for a month at about 500 feet.  I was just barely too far south to really cash in that last big snow so it didn't last as long.

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah looks like it. But I’m skeptical the cool/wet pattern will continue beyond mid-April. Lowpass constructed analogs converge to a much drier-looking pattern in W-Canada/PNW from mid/late April through mid/late May, while the Southwest/Interior West continue with a cool/wet theme (probably due to ULL activity associated with the STJ).

But it’s a very different pattern than those of the last few years at that stage. It was clear early-on in both 2021 and 2022 that the 4CH was going to be a beast heading into the warm season. Not the case this year.

STRONG feeling that our cold July will be a rock solid case of delayed but NOT denied.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

STRONG feeling that our cold July will be a rock solid case of delayed but NOT denied.

August is the month we haven't been able to buy a cool anomaly this century though.

[snow_wizard]

I think we may have hit the first peak of the solar cycle.  The last couple of days have had a lower sunspot number than any day since November.  On the last cycle the second peak was slightly higher than the first which is somewhat unusual.

We often have a loser winter or two just after the peak so my bets are on 2024-25 being a turd.  Interestingly the strongest solar max on record was in 1957, so that and the resultant El Nino is probably what brought an end to the amazing cold period we had in the late 1940s through 1957.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we may have hit the first peak of the solar cycle.  The last couple of days have had a lower sunspot number than any day since November.  On the last cycle the second peak was slightly higher than the first which is somewhat unusual.

We often have a loser winter or two just after the peak so my bets are on 2024-25 being a turd.  Interestingly the strongest solar max on record was in 1957, so that and the resultant El Nino is probably what brought an end to the amazing cold period we had in the late 1940s through 1957.

If we have a big late October cold snap this year then I'm throwing in the towel. If we get a dud I hope it's more like 2009-10 and not 2014-15. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS, GEM 10 Day Loop.
The GFS digs the trough offshore a bit, and the Canadian hammers us with one cold trough after another. WOW!

[TT-SEA]

More of a direct hit for western WA with the Thursday/Friday trough.   Even shows snow for my area... but also shows a south wind and temps above freezing during that time so I doubt it amounts to much.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

More of a direct hit for western WA with the Thursday/Friday trough.   Even shows snow for my area... but also shows a south wind and temps above freezing during that time so I doubt it amounts to much.

Looks like close to 6" here. This could be a solid late season EVENT. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO seems drier than the GEM and GFS after the first trough. It also shows lows into the mid-20s in the WV on Sunday and Monday. 

[TT-SEA]

High clouds are thinning... filtered sun and 61 now.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High clouds are thinning... filtered sun and 61 now.

Quite cloudy and 56 here. 

[T-Town]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

More of a direct hit for western WA with the Thursday/Friday trough.   Even shows snow for my area... but also shows a south wind and temps above freezing during that time so I doubt it amounts to much.

Tacoma C-zone?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like PDX hit 60 for the 4th day in a row. Let’s hope we can put the overachieving warm spell thing to rest now and it doesn’t become the theme the next 6-7 months.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS and ECMWF both agree on daily averages dropping into the 8 to 10 below normal range later this week.  Should nicely round out a solidly cold March.

[Cold Snap]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

More of a direct hit for western WA with the Thursday/Friday trough.   Even shows snow for my area... but also shows a south wind and temps above freezing during that time so I doubt it amounts to much.

It would be nice to see one more event. I remember there was a nice little event on 3/22/13 that gave me an unexpected 1.5”. I remember the news saying it was going to snow but wasn’t going to really accumulate much but it ended up sticking to everything and I still had school that day and most of the buses ended up being 10+ minutes late because none of the roads were treated.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like PDX hit 60 for the 4th day in a row. Let’s hope we can put the overachieving warm spell thing to rest now and it doesn’t become the theme the next 6-7 months.

WOW! I did NOT see that coming! Different world down here. Light rain and 45. 

[snow_wizard]

I so hope we don't get a significant El Nino this year.  When we get on a cold roll like this it normally ends when a Nino knocks out the endless parade of GOA ridges.  High chance at least the early part of the next cold season will be very good if nothing upsets the apple cart.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we have a big late October cold snap this year then I'm throwing in the towel. If we get a dud I hope it's more like 2009-10 and not 2014-15. 

If there's a Nino I agree.  October cold waves are toxic in that case.  If it's neutral I think an October cold wave would be fine.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we may have hit the first peak of the solar cycle.  The last couple of days have had a lower sunspot number than any day since November.  On the last cycle the second peak was slightly higher than the first which is somewhat unusual.

We often have a loser winter or two just after the peak so my bets are on 2024-25 being a turd.  Interestingly the strongest solar max on record was in 1957, so that and the resultant El Nino is probably what brought an end to the amazing cold period we had in the late 1940s through 1957.

Doubt we’ve hit the peak since the mean polar field/IMF hasn’t flipped yet (just the south pole). Maybe a year or two from maximum?

[snow_wizard]

The MJO forecast is more bullish on the current wave staying strong over the Indian Ocean with each run.  Good sign for upsetting the development of any possible Nino.