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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

They have to rationalize a couple normalish days.    Its really panic projection that happens on here every spring.    Summer is approaching.  

To be fair, it will be warmer than normal. But not by a whole lot. Just the sort of warm spell that normally happens most years as winter winds down. A little on the late side for one, in fact.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😀

People and trees are eager for spring now.   It's OK if you have different feelings!

If your trees were ready for spring they would be leafing out. Which isn’t supposed to happen in mid-March at your latitude anyway.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS showing troughing across most of the CONUS in the 10-15 day period.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0177600.png

Looks like it is centered over Oregon. Beautiful. I am sure there will be some pleasant days mixed in there. 

Yesterday, was very chilly, but turned out to be a nice afternoon and evening. I saw a baseball game on the way home and stopped to watch a couple of innings. It was the home opener for the Scio Loggers, and it just so happened, unbeknownst to me, they were hosting the defending state champ Kennedy Trojans, where I attended and played baseball my final two years in high school. Kennedy's pitcher was a lefty throwing gas with a wicked breaking ball. Those Loggers didn't stand a chance. Great memories of spring afternoons long ago. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Phil said:

If your trees were ready for spring they would be leafing out. Which isn’t supposed to happen in mid-March at your latitude anyway.

Pointless discussion.    I made a quip that the trees might disagree about freezing temps being a blessing at this point.    But trees don't have feelings.    😀

And yes... things do normally start waking up at this time of year in our maritime climate in spite of our latitude.    The leafing out process is quite lengthy here unlike the Midwest which seemingly can go from dead of winter to the middle of summer in a week.   

If you want to continue debating my off-the-cuff quip then have it!   There is no substance there.  

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pointless discussion.    I made a quip that the trees might disagree about freezing temps being a blessing at this point.    But trees don't have feelings.    😀

And yes... things do normally start waking up at this time of year in our maritime climate in spite of our latitude.    The leafing out process is quite lengthy here unlike the Midwest which seemingly can go from dead of winter to the middle of summer in a week.   

If you want to continue debating my off-the-cuff quip then have it!   There is no substance there.  

 

Doesn’t seem too far from climo in W-WA. Many places are even running ahead of schedule up there.

What is unusual is how early leaf-out has been in the SE, including here.

C58A35FF-26E7-4A2F-B644-B6737F40107D.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pointless discussion.    I made a quip that the trees might disagree about freezing temps being a blessing at this point.    But trees don't have feelings.    😀

And yes... things do normally start waking up at this time of year in our maritime climate in spite of our latitude.    The leafing out process is quite lengthy here unlike the Midwest which seemingly can go from dead of winter to the middle of summer in a week.   

If you want to continue debating my off-the-cuff quip then have it!   There is no substance there.  

 

Yeah, you are right, we are way way way behind up here this year, I think just due to the very cold winter we had overall. The trees also didn't turn until very late in the fall, pretty much when we had our first freeze and snow on the same day in early November. If we have a cold spring or at least early spring, I could see the process being quite delayed. I have never seen it delayed as much as when I had this place under contract in May/June 2011. That was ridiculous. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like it is centered over Oregon. Beautiful. I am sure there will be some pleasant days mixed in there. 

Yesterday, was very chilly, but turned out to be a nice afternoon and evening. I saw a baseball game on the way home and stopped to watch a couple of innings. It was the home opener for the Scio Loggers, and it just so happened, unbeknownst to me, they were hosting the defending state champ Kennedy Trojans, where I attended and played baseball my final two years in high school. Kennedy's pitcher was a lefty throwing gas with a wicked breaking ball. Those Loggers didn't stand a chance. Great memories of spring afternoons long ago. 

Yeah... the overall pattern has been quite enjoyable.   I would prefer closer to normal temps and a few more warm rain systems but it's been quite sunny and pleasant which is nice.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Doesn’t seem too far from climo in W-WA. Many places are even running ahead of schedule up there.

What is unusual is how early leaf-out has been in the SE, including here.

C58A35FF-26E7-4A2F-B644-B6737F40107D.jpeg

Interesting.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Doesn’t seem too far from climo in W-WA. Many places are even running ahead of schedule up there.

What is unusual is how early leaf-out has been in the SE, including here.

C58A35FF-26E7-4A2F-B644-B6737F40107D.jpeg

Interesting, I can see it is well behind schedule down here, which makes sense. I saw my first daffodils of the spring in Eugene this weekend, usually I see a few starting around Valentine's Day. Have been watching some at our site in Lebanon, and a couple flowers had just opened up yesterday. The daffodils in our yard are just sending shoots up above ground. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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32 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ya, noone is doing that at all, don't make something out of nothing.

I’m looking forward to the sunny and mild days later this week. The rest of that post was just kind of messing with Andrew, but I know that big dawg can take it.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting, I can see it is well behind schedule down here, which makes sense. I saw my first daffodils of the spring in Eugene this weekend, usually I see a few starting around Valentine's Day. Have been watching some at our site in Lebanon, and a couple flowers had just opened up yesterday. The daffodils in our yard are just sending shoots up above ground. 

Also makes sense that the area from Seattle northward might not be behind schedule because that has been the sunniest and warmest area on many days with this pattern of systems going into OR and CA.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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East-Pacific is torching now. 🔥 Also a sharp PMM dipole (+SPMM/-NPMM), which is interesting since that was a staple of transition to canonical +ENSO during the last cold phase (1950s-1970s).

I’m not taking the bait on that, though. Very different low frequency z-cell mode in the post-1998 era, though I’d love to be surprised.

70E37965-A6B8-4523-878D-2E59181F4053.png

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Also makes sense that the area from Seattle northward might not be behind schedule because that has been the sunniest and warmest area on many days with this pattern of systems going into OR and CA.

Still seems on the late side here. Am sure it would be even later if the storms hadn’t been tracking south.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

East-Pacific is torching now. 🔥 Also a sharp PMM dipole (+SPMM/-NPMM), which is interesting since that was a staple of transition to canonical +ENSO during the last cold phase (1950s-1970s).

I’m not taking the bait on that, though. Very different low frequency z-cell mode in the post-1998 era, though I’d love to be surprised.

70E37965-A6B8-4523-878D-2E59181F4053.png

You are wise beyond your years.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m looking forward to the sunny and mild days later this week. The rest of that post was just kind of messing with Andrew, but I know that big dawg can take it.

No doubt homie,. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Everything is still buttoned up pretty good here, as Jim might put it. For the most part at least. Have seen lots of budding daffodils around, and a few even blooming. Nice to see. Some phat buds on cherry and plum trees too. Definitely a few weeks late compared to a normal year.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Chilly day with a partly cloudy sky... and looks like remnants of a disorganized c-zone still going to the north of my area.    Only 47 last hour at SEA and 45 out here.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pointless discussion.    I made a quip that the trees might disagree about freezing temps being a blessing at this point.    But trees don't have feelings.    😀

And yes... things do normally start waking up at this time of year in our maritime climate in spite of our latitude.    The leafing out process is quite lengthy here unlike the Midwest which seemingly can go from dead of winter to the middle of summer in a week.   

If you want to continue debating my off-the-cuff quip then have it!   There is no substance there.  

 

Pretty normal to see freezes in mid March. Trees around our region often still look pretty dormant until the 2nd week of April or so.

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... the wet and dry signals becoming a little weaker in the west.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-0177600.png

And return to wet during week-2. Good news for the trees! 🌳 

05FD15DC-4F10-40F6-94F5-12B6AB03933A.png

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Pretty amazing to see the ECMWF going for another period of well below normal temps next week now.  Even the warmer days late this week will be offset by cold nights.  Going to be a solidly cold March, and an outstandingly cold Nov - Mar.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

And return to wet during week-2. Good news for the trees!🌳  

05FD15DC-4F10-40F6-94F5-12B6AB03933A.png

Big time!    

A rainy pattern would be much better to accelerate the spring green up as opposed to cold and dry.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Pretty easy to see why the ECMWF is colder next week now.  The MJO forecast is a bit more bullish on the current wave remaining strong when it arrives over the Indian Ocean.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

This could be the coldest year in years.

Yup.  Coldest Nov 1 through March 13 since 1989 here.  I know you have had big cold anomalies down there as well.

Spring has barely made any progress here so far.

  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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17 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Barefoot most of the warmer months but the winter is too cold for my feet (I’ve tried, it’s miserable). Except for brief forays outside, I do those barefoot year-round (yes, even in the snow). Almost never do any consciousness-altering substances beyond cannabis.

I can tolerate being outside barefoot. In fact I did that a lot as a kid apparently.

And yes, here officer, I have my affidavit printed out right here!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Looks like a BOUNTIFUL Spring upcoming for the west. Our most predictable members are now showing the first signs of hope or panic.

Could you imagine if this NW troughing regime sticks into the summer, with the budding +ENSO completely neutering the 4CH and mitigating ridging over WA and OR? We end up with the coldest summer in decades? Agh. One can dream.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Looks like a BOUNTIFUL Spring upcoming for the west. Our most predictable members are now showing the first signs of hope or panic.

Could you imagine if this NW troughing regime sticks into the summer, with the budding +ENSO completely neutering the 4CH and mitigating ridging over WA and OR? We end up with the coldest summer in decades? Agh. One can dream.

Hopefully we can see a lot of thunderstorms this summer too

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Seattle had a low of 39F this morning making it the 23rd consecutive day with a low temperature below 40F.  More notable is the fact that 15 of those days are the first 15 days of the month of March.  I would think that history would show that run to be quite unusual.  I hit 32F for a low this morning making it my 11th this month and the 73rd for the season.  Currently 50F and my high for the day.

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18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks like a BOUNTIFUL Spring upcoming for the west. Our most predictable members are now showing the first signs of hope or panic.

Could you imagine if this NW troughing regime sticks into the summer, with the budding +ENSO completely neutering the 4CH and mitigating ridging over WA and OR? We end up with the coldest summer in decades? Agh. One can dream.

You guys project way too much.   I am the same smart a** all year long.    I have no doubt this summer will be warm again.   Just hoping it's a little wetter than recent summers.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

You guys project way too much.   I am the same smart a** all year long.    I have no doubt this summer will be warm again.   Just hoping it's a little wetter than recent summers.   

I'm not even projecting. I'm pretty honest about how I feel... I am absolutely terrified of another 2013-present warm season. The thought petrifies me. I am absolutely in the grilled frank-deluxue sog-bog camp, through and through. Not gonna hide that.

For you, you are self admittedly not too afraid of an 'enhanced' warm season, or of the recent climo shift in the last decade.

  • Popcorn 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm not even projecting. I'm pretty honest about how I feel... I am absolutely terrified of another 2013-present warm season. The thought petrifies me. I am absolutely in the grilled frank-deluxue sog-bog camp, through and through. Not gonna hide that.

For you, you are self admittedly not too afraid of an 'enhanced' warm season, or of the recent climo shift in the last decade.

Something shifted in 2013, in a big way. Perhaps now we shift back. Doesn't mean Phil can't have a winter once in a while too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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