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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


Requiem

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I hope this makes you proud Jesse. 

5AFE561E-A6C7-4F9C-B058-115C2CD9D2CF.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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21 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm not even projecting. I'm pretty honest about how I feel... I am absolutely terrified of another 2013-present warm season. The thought petrifies me. I am absolutely in the grilled frank-deluxue sog-bog camp, through and through. Not gonna hide that.

For you, you are self admittedly not too afraid of an 'enhanced' warm season, or of the recent climo shift in the last decade.

I don't mind warm... but it has to come with more rain than a few of our recent summers.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I took this video a week ago. Absolute bullshit. 

IMG_0801.MOV

In John Steinbeck's "To a God Unknown" the protagonist believes the spirit of his deceased father has taken up residence in a grand oak tree on his property. His fundamentalist Christian brother sees him talking to the tree, offering sacrifices to it, and presenting his firstborn son to the tree. He girdles the tree and it dies. 

The book ends with him committing suicide to end a California drought cycle. Good stuff. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

You guys project way too much.   I am the same smart a** all year long.    I have no doubt this summer will be warm again.   Just hoping it's a little wetter than recent summers.   

You have no doubt at all? Zero whatsoever?

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

You have no doubt at all? Zero whatsoever?

Nobody here does.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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19 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

I feel like one more +5º summer on top of yet another sub-par rainy season would just about put the final nail in the coffin of the ecosystem around here, but I could be wrong.

At least the snowpack around Oregon is looking pretty great, much better than most of the past few years
image.thumb.png.22c6e0e09e225c237caeb1eaf58651bc.png

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48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Something shifted in 2013, in a big way. Perhaps now we shift back. Doesn't mean Phil can't have a winter once in a while too. 

Our winters didn’t really shift at all post-2013. What did shift is summer. Much more humid, with much less temperature variability. Just more tropical, all around.

What’s interesting is we haven’t hit 100°F since 2016 (in part due to how humid it has been). It’s one of our longest sub-100°F streaks on record, actually.

But all of those past streaks ended with nuclear blowtorches, so I fully expect to roast when this one ends.

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks like a BOUNTIFUL Spring upcoming for the west. Our most predictable members are now showing the first signs of hope or panic.

Could you imagine if this NW troughing regime sticks into the summer, with the budding +ENSO completely neutering the 4CH and mitigating ridging over WA and OR? We end up with the coldest summer in decades? Agh. One can dream.

That would make for a pretty cold year overall.  I think ENSO is going to be more neutral, but who knows.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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30 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

I feel like one more +5º summer on top of yet another sub-par rainy season would just about put the final nail in the coffin of the ecosystem around here, but I could be wrong.

We desperately need a cool summer.  As I've mentioned before the last really cool August was way back in 2001.  We have had a few cool July's since then, but not enough.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

39BAF3FD-34CA-4064-9327-D506400E54BE.jpeg

Mark’s going pretty bonkers for the warmth the next three days. Probably a little bit of wishcasting happening there.

Those lows are way high for the region as a whole.  PDX might have an east wind to deal with on 2 or 3 days so they might stay pretty mild.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We desperately need a cool summer.  As I've mentioned before the last really cool August was way back in 2001.  We have had a few cool July's since then, but not enough.

A cool summer usually means cloudy and wet and you profess to hate rain in the summer.    I know that 70 years ago it was possible to have some chilly days with sunshine in the summer.    But most likely it would take unusually gloomy weather to get a chilly summer.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Doesn't that require a monsoon?

We can get cold core thunderstorms in the summer also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

A cool summer usually means cloudy and wet and you profess to hate rain in the summer.    I know that 70 years ago it was possible to have some chilly days with sunshine in the summer.    But most likely it would take abnormally gloomy weather to get a chilly summer.     

Not really true.  At least looking at the not too distant past we had very dry and cool summers all the time.  Just takes a strong surface high off the coast.  Kind of like 2011.  Less than an inch of rain that July and it was quite cool.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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FWIW the ECMWF goes for a low of 29 at PDX tomorrow.  Very possible before the east wind kicks in.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not really true.  At least looking at the not too distant past we had very dry and cool summers all the time.  Just takes a strong surface high off the coast.  Kind of like 2011.  Less than an inch of rain that July and it was quite cool.

Maybe.   Seems like a humid and wet summer would be better for the trees at this point.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Forests around here are adapted to dry warm seasons. That’s why forests in the PNW are mostly coniferous, except along bodies of water. The insane heat the last decade is 90% of the problem when it comes to summertime doing ecosystem damage around here. The long dry spells accompanying it have just been the cherry on top, but that’s what happens in a warming climate with a NW shifting four corners high.

The relative lack of precip in the shoulder seasons outside of deep summer (late-April thru mid June and early September through mid-October) has been a big problem too.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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In terms of recovering from damage... seems like a wet summer would be beneficial at this point.    Best way to get that is with humidity.  Justin's favorite summer weather.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Makes sense. So from an ecosystem point of view, a winter rainfall deficit itself isn't necessarily a death knell, but it becomes a problem if it's focused too much on the shoulder seasons and is accompanied by a hot, dry summer?

I mean it’s complex but generally I’d say so. Of course if our winters got way drier for an extended period that would have impacts too.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Forests around here are adapted to dry warm seasons. That’s why forests in the PNW are mostly coniferous, except along bodies of water. The insane heat the last decade is 90% of the problem when it comes to summertime doing ecosystem damage around here. The long dry spells accompanying it have just been the cherry on top, but that’s what happens in a warming climate with a NW shifting four corners high.

The relative lack of precip in the shoulder seasons outside of deep summer (late-April thru mid June and early September through mid-October) has been a big problem too.

Special mention goes to the massive decrease of low and mid level cloud cover in the heart of the summer the last ten years as well. Even though our summers have always been dryish they used to have a lot more overcast marine layer days. That affects evapotranspiration, soil moisture, available precip thanks to fog drip (especially in coastal areas and higher elevations) etc etc.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In terms of recovering from damage... seems like a wet summer would be beneficial at this point.    Best way to get that is with humidity.  Justin's favorite summer weather.   

I mean, if we're talking humidity, cool summers with onshore flow blow any other weather pattern out of the park to maximize that variable. Our two best rainmakers during the summer are midlevel convective events and stalled PSCZs... Both are instigated by disturbances coming onshore from the Pacific. And those disturbances are excellent at bringing in deep layers of saturated Pacific air well inland... Air so moist it leaves a haze.

Contrary to colloquial belief, summer convective events aren't necessarily precluded by deeply entrenched tropical advection. All you need is midlevel moisture (extremely common in the midlatitudes year round), and the right lapse rates, which are brought about by sharp Pacific disturbances with cold air aloft and differential flow ahead of them to potentiate the airmass and make things unstable. We do not need ridgy patterns to get them.

So to have a humid and stormy summer, our best bet would be to root for a cool and troughy one.

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  • Rain 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I mean, if we're talking humidity, cool summers with onshore flow blow any other weather pattern out of the park to maximize that variable. Our two best rainmakers during the summer are midlevel convective events and stalled PSCZs... Both are instigated by disturbances coming onshore from the Pacific. And those disturbances are excellent at bringing in deep layers of saturated Pacific air well inland... Air so moist it leaves a haze.

Contrary to colloquial belief, summer convective events aren't necessarily precluded by deeply entrenched tropical advection. All you need is midlevel moisture (extremely common in the midlatitudes year round), and the right lapse rates, which are brought about by sharp Pacific disturbances with cold air aloft and differential flow ahead of them to potentiate the airmass and make things unstable. We do not need ridgy patterns to get them.

So to have a humid and stormy summer, our best bet would be to root for a cool and troughy one.

The underlying issue for Tim is he desperately needs the warming of the last ten years, and then some, to make this climate livable for him. Anyone who was posting during the infamous 2008-12 period, when the regional climate briefly took a half hearted turn back toward 20th century summer norms, would know that to be the case.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I mean, if we're talking humidity, cool summers with onshore flow blow any other weather pattern out of the park to maximize that variable. Our two best rainmakers during the summer are midlevel convective events and stalled PSCZs... Both are instigated by disturbances coming onshore from the Pacific. And those disturbances are excellent at bringing in deep layers of saturated Pacific air well inland... Air so moist it leaves a haze.

Contrary to colloquial belief, summer convective events aren't necessarily precluded by deeply entrenched tropical advection. All you need is midlevel moisture (extremely common in the midlatitudes year round), and the right lapse rates, which are brought about by sharp Pacific disturbances with cold air aloft and differential flow ahead of them to potentiate the airmass and make things unstable. We do not need ridgy patterns to get them.

So to have a humid and stormy summer, our best bet would be to root for a cool and troughy one.

A c-zone is great for a some areas but its not regionwide.   I am thinking of a GOA trough and warm southerly flow ahead of it for more widespread rain.   That can happen in the summer.  

Side note... I have no horse in this race in terms of my comments and my preferences.   Talking about it is meaningless in terms of what actually happens.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The underlying issue for Tim is he desperately needs the warming of the last ten years, and then some, to make this climate livable for him. Anyone who was posting during the infamous 2008-12 period, when the regional climate briefly took a half hearted turn back toward 20th century summer norms, would know that to be the case.

Wow.   This is just so clueless.   Its like you are talking to a young Tim of 20 years ago.    Maybe that is the problem with these online forums.   You can't watch people change and age.    But that is what happens after almost a quarter of a century.  

We are starting to plan retirement now.   We have endless possibilities.    Nothing is desperate at all in terms of weather in one place for us.   And nothing stays the same.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Special mention goes to the massive decrease of low and mid level cloud cover in the heart of the summer the last ten years as well. Even though our summers have always been dryish they used to have a lot more overcast marine layer days. That affects evapotranspiration, soil moisture, available precip thanks to fog drip (especially in coastal areas and higher elevations) etc etc.

This is a great point. Marine layer days are almost non-existent now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow.   This is just so clueless.   Its like you are talking to a young Tim of 20 years ago.    Maybe that is the problem with these online forums.   You can't watch people change and age.    But that is what happens after almost a quarter of a century.  

We are starting to plan retirement now.   We have endless possibilities.    Nothing is desperate at all in terms of weather in one place for us.   And nothing stays the same.   

Feel old yet? 😄 I remember you posting pics on the old forum and your kids were just toddlers. Doesn’t feel like very long ago.

And I predict you’ll end up somewhere in the southeast, probably on the coast. Hawaii would be your first choice but their tax code will drive you elsewhere.

Lets see how psychic I am.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Feel old yet? 😄 I remember you posting pics on the old forum and your kids were just toddlers. Doesn’t feel like very long ago.

And I predict you’ll end up somewhere in the southeast, probably on the coast. Hawaii would be your first choice but their tax code will drive you elsewhere.

Lets see how psychic I am.

My sons are graduating college and starting their careers in the next 3 months.   My daughter will be done with school in 4 years.   Plans are in motion. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Feel old yet? 😄 I remember you posting pics on the old forum and your kids were just toddlers. Doesn’t feel like very long ago.

And I predict you’ll end up somewhere in the southeast, probably on the coast. Hawaii would be your first choice but their tax code will drive you elsewhere.

Lets see how psychic I am.

2012 was only 11 years ago. I didn’t even start posting here until 2007 (16 years ago)

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

2012 was only 11 years ago. I didn’t even start posting here until 2007 (16 years ago)

How can 11 years go by that fast? Won’t be long until all of us are rotting in the ground.

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Just now, Doinko said:

I didn't even realize this forum was that old. What was December 2008 like here? That must have been really fun

It was pandemonium. Several different threads for that event. MallowTheCloud (old admin here) and I went snow chasing around the onset. Good times.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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