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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You can see the convection building up. Interesting how this is the second time we’ve had some thunderstorm threats this month. Very unusual for March from what I can remember in my lifetime but the sun angles are doing their thing. 

G18_sector_pnw_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20230322-1829.gif

ECMWF has been showing a band of rain forming this evening and moving across SW WA and up through the Seattle area.   Wasn't sure if that was marine layer moving in or something else... appears it is convective.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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image.png

NAM goes crazy this evening in Seattle. Some moistening of the boundary layer due to dying storms drifting in off the Hood Canal, leads to decent midlevel CAPE. I've seen this before on the NAM, it's pretty aggressive, almost too aggressive, in this situation.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has been showing a band of rain forming this evening and moving across SW WA and up through the Seattle area.   Wasn't sure if that was marine layer moving in or something else... appears it is convective.  

hive mind

  • Confused 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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SEA was at 60 last hour.   63 in North Bend.   That is 4 out of the last 6 days at or above 60 in both places.   A nice little treat.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has been showing a band of rain forming this evening and moving across SW WA and up through the Seattle area.   Wasn't sure if that was marine layer moving in or something else... appears it is convective.  

I’m skeptical that it ends up being more than straitform rainfall by the time it gets here…but we will see. 

2023 warm season stats

Max temp-89

+80s-5

+85s-3

+90s-0

monthly rainfall-0.00”

warm season rainfall-4.42”

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Up to 63.3 for the day it’s very nice outside! I wish we were able to get 60 degree sunny days in the summer nowadays. Those are always very pleasant.

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2023 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 4

Number of 85+ days - 3

Number of 90+ days - 1

Number of 95+ days - 0

 

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1/2" hail report out of Corvallis.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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14 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Up to 63.3 for the day it’s very nice outside! I wish we were able to get 60 degree sunny days in the summer nowadays. Those are always very pleasant.

I was thinking that today felt like summer.   But the exact same day in July would probably feel cold.   Full sunshine and mid 60s with very little wind is extremely pleasant.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FWIW... the ECMWF showed this band sort of exploding again over King County around 10 p.m. and moving up the Sound all the way to Bellingham after that.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1679486400-1679500800-1679562000-20.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

1/2" hail report out of Corvallis.

Would Andrew qualify this as evil or good weather? 

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2023 warm season stats

Max temp-89

+80s-5

+85s-3

+90s-0

monthly rainfall-0.00”

warm season rainfall-4.42”

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A few clouds starting to billow to the east here as the air mass starts to destabilize.  

20230322_162643.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I am not sure this is being driven by the heat of the day... the fact that the ECMWF shows it going all night probably means it being driven by the upper levels.    Although the sun and warmth today is probably helping things along.  

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10 minutes ago, Cloud said:

What a beautiful day! Really taking advantage of it by moving some stuff over to our house. Tomorrow into the weekend don't look too good. 

There will probably be some decent periods in there but not the same as today.   ECMWF shows basically dry weather Friday and Saturday until early afternoon when showers pop up.   Maybe dry all day in Seattle on Sunday.    But struggling to 50 each day as opposed to low 60s.  

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18Z ECMWF just coming out now... looks similar overnight with the convective band making it all the way to Bellingham.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1679508000-1679518800-1679562000-20.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like Andrews about to get slammed. What a blessing of a month for him. So far the stuff in SW WA doesn’t look too crazy but we will see. 

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2023 warm season stats

Max temp-89

+80s-5

+85s-3

+90s-0

monthly rainfall-0.00”

warm season rainfall-4.42”

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ECMWF shows mid to upper 40s tomorrow afternoon with a brisk SW wind across most of the area.   Going to feel like winter again.    Pretty typical to go back and forth at this time of year.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_mph-9616000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

hive mind

@TT-SEA You seem a bit confused. I meant that we both posted about the same thunderstorm threat within moments of one another!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

@TT-SEA You seem a bit confused. I meant that we both posted about the same thunderstorm threat within moments of one another!

Ahhh... missed that.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There will probably be some decent periods in there but not the same as today.   ECMWF shows basically dry weather Friday and Saturday until early afternoon when showers pop up.   Maybe dry all day in Seattle on Sunday.    But struggling to 50 each day as opposed to low 60s.  

I’m more concerned about the temps than the precip. Plan is to get all the heavy stuff to the new place Sunday. Could be a bit chilly. 
 

Oh, I think I may have found the secret to controlling my seasonal allergies: don’t wait until symptoms pop up to take the pills. Pop ‘em in every day! Working pretty well today after taking for consecutive days since Monday! Days like today is usually hell but it’s really making me enjoy spring right now. 

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6 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

There is a lot of build up all around my location 😳

20230322_171348.jpg

20230322_171405.jpg

20230322_171437.jpg

 

16 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

What I've seen in the past is showers and thunderstorms on the West side of Portland in the afternoon then later in the late afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms forming on the East side. Normally that's in the summer time but maybe it could happen now 🤗🌩⛈️

I forgot, sometimes these showers and thunderstorms will pop up really fast and you won't know it until it's right on top of you!!

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That storm over battle ground went from nothing to dark red returns very quickly. Shows how fast these storms can develop outta nowhere. 

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2023 warm season stats

Max temp-89

+80s-5

+85s-3

+90s-0

monthly rainfall-0.00”

warm season rainfall-4.42”

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