PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Meatyorologist]

13 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It is, but this is not:

That is crazy looking man!

[Meatyorologist]

Not going to lie, since November it's felt appropriately Niña-like, aside from January. Pretty happy about having PNW troughing feel like the default. A good contrast to the -ENSO PHAILS we've seen in the recent past.

[Phil]

57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was looking at it more from an atmospheric perspective.

Integral of AAM anomalies is projected to run positive.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

I couldn't resist biting on that one, of course:

I’m not seeing any drought issues developing either in the NW or SW this year. That map will likely bust.

[TT-SEA]

At SEA picking up my son and his friends who just landed from Cabo.   Car says 55 degrees.   Lovely evening and nice soft transition for them. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not seeing any drought issues developing either in the NW or SW this year. That map will likely bust.

Hoping we see a wetter pattern, it's been dry

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That is crazy looking man!

I call that taking a needless risk.  Too many things could go wrong.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not seeing any drought issues developing either in the NW or SW this year. That map will likely bust.

Still a lot of time to make up for the recent short fall.  I do find it interesting the drought in CA totally ended, OR remained pretty much unchanged, and now WA has transitioned to dry.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At SEA picking up my son and his friends who just landed from Cabo.   Car says 55 degrees.   Lovely evening and nice soft transition for them. 

The first somewhat warm night in ages.  A lot of places will probably be cold by morning though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At SEA picking up my son and his friends who just landed from Cabo.   Car says 55 degrees.   Lovely evening and nice soft transition for them. 

Down to 37 here. 

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I call that taking a needless risk.  Too many things could go wrong.

They're guided tours. The water flow at the points they choose is actually comically slow, still even. And surrounding the area hidden underwater are rope barriers, rocky terrain, and other failsafes. It's a pretty controlled environment actually

[Gradient Keeper]

5 hours ago, MossMan said:

Am I in the blue? 

No, but you are in the pepto! or you're going to need it with how crummy this Spring may be. It's one of the two. You pick!

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF also showing a warmish day on Wednesday like the GFS.     The 00Z run last night showed 58 at SEA today and it was actually 62 so we could make another run at 60 on Wednesday before it crashes again on Thursday with rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro is rock solid 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Euro is rock solid 

Both those troughs later in the run have the potential to bring lowland snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ladies, Gentlemen, and Tim, for your viewing pleasure I present the 00z Euro. By the way, that's a helluva compliment on this forum to not be considered a gentleman. You're welcome.

[Gradient Keeper]

The rest of you need to do better. Try harder.

Night Shift 6z GFS in 2 hours 17 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My neighbors pond was frozen until a couple days ago. The frogs are singing tonight. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rip 

https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/2023/03/oregon-snowboarder-dies-in-avalanche-at-cascade-peak-2nd-death-this-month.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow

[ShawniganLake]

ROCK SOLID!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

9 hours ago, lowlandsnow said:

6ft in 24 hours in the Olympic on this run

Will I see any at 1000’ time will tell

[LowerGarfield]

It really feels like Spring.

[Anti Marine Layer]

35 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

It really feels like Spring.

Only for a few days.

[Deweydog]

12z is almost an hour late! What gives?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is a wild stat. Burns, OR has a mean temp this month of 24.1. The March record at the current airport location (1973-present), is 31.3 from 1985. They just have to average under 40 the rest of the way to do it, they will likely absolutely crush it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here is a wild stat. Burns, OR has a mean temp this month of 24.1. The March record at the current airport location (1973-present), is 31.3 from 1985. They just have to average under 40 the rest of the way to do it, they will likely absolutely crush it. 

The old Harney Branch Experiment station which is in the same general location of the airport had a mean of 26.4 in March 1952. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS still shows the bonus nice day on Wednesday.

Also big changes for later in the week... that next trough slides south offshore instead of going inland across the PNW and parks itself over the desert SW on this run.

[lowlandsnow]

Winter is back

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another cold and snowy GFS run! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Details will vary from run to run, but the big news is the walls are closing in for those dreaming of a spring 2015 redux. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is a temporary setback in the mid-range, but no one should worry yet. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Winter is back

Vastly different on the 12Z run.  

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Vastly different on the 12Z run.  

Yep not even remotely similar

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Details will vary from run to run, but the big news is the walls are closing in for those dreaming of a spring 2015 redux. 

I am just looking for those nuggets of spring.   Next year will be the 2015 spring redux.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is also very cold late next week. 

[lowlandsnow]

06z vs 12z The 6z has a huge trough parked over PNW and the 12z has a ridge building.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still quite a bit of snow out there. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM is also very cold late next week. 

Thankfully the GEM does not show much of any lowland snow either.     In fact... most of Saturday and Sunday are dry for western WA on the 12Z GEM.    Of course we are all just expressing our opinions.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After next weekend the GFS is a clear outlier.