PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thankfully the GEM does not show much of any lowland snow either.     In fact... most of Saturday and Sunday are dry for western WA on the 12Z GEM.    Of course we are all just expressing our opinions.   

Definitely cold enough for snow here on the GEM, also the GEM SLAMS our region with the 2nd trough. 

Edited March 18, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Still quite a bit of snow out there. 

I figured it would be slow to melt without warm rain and wind.    That is how it works in my area too.

I will be doing lawn prep this weekend.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I figured it would be slow to melt without warm rain and wind.    That is how it works in my area too.

I will be doing lawn prep this weekend.  

 

Billions of people around the world don't have running water and all you care about is your lawn. SHAME ON YOU!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Definitely cold enough for snow here on the GEM, also the GEM SLAMS our region with the 2nd trough. 

Oh well... it will probably change.   After day 7 its all a guess.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Oh well... it will probably change.   After day 7 its all a guess.   

On the other hand the GFS gives you the warm front drizzle you crave. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On the other hand the GFS gives you the warm front drizzle you crave. 

Could use some that.  

[TT-SEA]

Little different than 2014 right now... that February was cold and very wet and then March was warmer than normal and record setting wet.    The extremely wet February and March that year was much more effective at kicking starting the spring green up.  

This was 3/21/2014:

 

[Winterdog]

I didn't expect it but I added another freeze this morning with a low of 31.8F.  I see KSEA hit the 30's again for the 18th consecutive time this month.  They must have changed sensors there this year or something, this is just not like the KSEA I'm used to.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I didn't expect it but I added another freeze this morning with a low of 31.8F.  I see KSEA hit the 30's again for the 18th consecutive time this month.  They must have changed sensors there this year or something, this is just not like the KSEA I'm used to.

I will be interesting to see the official low... it was 41 at 7 a.m. and 42 at 8 a.m. but in between they touched 39 for about 15 minutes.    Normal low is 40 right now.

[TT-SEA]

Meanwhile... its up to 57 already out here.   Need to get outside.  

[TT-SEA]

My wife's pollen allergies kicked in overnight... her eyes are itching like crazy this morning.   Not fun but does indicate things are waking up.    

[Winterdog]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife's pollen allergies kicked in overnight... her eyes are itching like crazy this morning.   Not fun but does indicate things are waking up.    

I refuse to be woke!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. The 12z GFS was a HUGE OUTLIER!

[TT-SEA]

Perfect day for the foothills to maximize warmth... light east wind and full sunshine with a warm air mass overhead.   Only 48 at SEA but 60 in NB already and 59 up here.   Sitting on the deck with my coffee and it feels really warm for this time of day.   Eventually have to start working here.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. The 12z GFS was a HUGE OUTLIER!

But the GEFS did shift east with the troughing in the mid range.   Could be the start of a trend.   Or not.  Who knows?   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But the GEFS did shift east with the troughing in the mid range.   Could be the start of a trend.   Or not.  Who knows?   

East right over us. Gonna be slammin' the region. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

East right over us. Gonna be slammin' the region. 

Actually even farther east by the middle of next week.    Its been pretty nice this month despite some crazy model runs... things have a way of looking less threatening as they get closer.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually even farther east by the middle of next week.    Its been pretty nice this month despite some crazy model runs... things have a way of looking less threatening as they get closer.  

It has been nice. Record cold and tons of snow. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It has been nice. Record cold and tons of snow. 

Sunnier than normal and almost no snow here.   

[MossMan]

Quite the stomach bug has struck the family! Just in time for the lovely weekend! 
Yay! 
I really hate puking. 

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday and Wednesday now look quite sunny and mild on the 12Z ECMWF.   Should be mid 50s to low 60s those days. That was the period to watch for lowland snow a couple days ago.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Tuesday and Wednesday now look quite sunny and mild on the 12Z ECMWF.   Should be mid 50s to low 60s those days. That was the period to watch for lowland snow a couple days ago.  

Average highs. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Average highs. 

Yes... quite an improvement over what that period looked like earlier.

[TT-SEA]

Pollen haze on my son's car parked in the driveway since last weekend while they were in Mexico.   Pretty obvious why my wife's eyes are bothersome today.

[TT-SEA]

Rainy day on Thursday... not enough out here for my liking though.   Need rain.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of sub-522 thickness late in the week on the EURO. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro showing highs in the low 40s for the WV on Friday. That's about as cold as it gets this time of year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Potentially historic cold extends into Saturday.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Potentially historic cold extends into Saturday.

Back to the low offshore scenario which has been so common and means King County northward is the warmest and driest area again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Back to the low offshore scenario which has been so common and means King County northward is the warmest and driest area again.

Yes, you will be blessed by the S/N gradient.

[Cold Snap]

Already up to 60 for the day.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a low of 38 so the beat rolls on for sub-40 lows. Sunny and up to 55 now, beautiful day. Looks like some high clouds could move in again later this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes, you will be blessed by the S/N gradient.

Its a different world up here with the low offshore.   This is Saturday - Tuesday precip... almost nothing up here and highs mostly in the low 50s and partly sunny.  

 

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Potentially historic cold extends into Saturday.

My birthday. Gotta go back to 1972 to find any snow in these parts that day.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

My birthday. Gotta go back to 1972 to find any snow in these parts that day.

Tornado about a week and a half later!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Already up to 60 for the day.

64 in North Bend now.   Feels very warm because there is almost no wind.  No I have to stop just wasting the day sitting on the deck in the sun and get to work.

[Doinko]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a low of 38 so the beat rolls on for sub-40 lows. Sunny and up to 55 now, beautiful day. Looks like some high clouds could move in again later this afternoon.

First above normal day at PDX yesterday since 2/20, that's pretty amazing. Only by 1.5 degrees too

[Gradient Keeper]

12z Euro. We might be into Spring, but this pattern screams Winter. Jeez

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

12z Euro. We might be into Spring, but this pattern screams Winter. Jeez

Wow, I was expecting a much warmer run reading some of the comments earlier.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After next weekend the GFS is a clear outlier. 

GFS spring cutoff bias is starting. I bet we’ll see a lot of this going forward.