PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

You probably just need to go to any location with a clear northern view. Even with city lights, you still have a shot.

Socked in with overcast here. To get “clear” tonight I have to drive east to someplace with a drier climate, which probably means Kamloops or maybe Merritt if I am lucky.

[MillCreekMike]

Wow the CZ over Arlington is INTENSE

[snow_wizard]

Kold GFS run!

I'm really hoping we can get some snow in this area during the next 2 or 3 days.  A lot of potential with the air mass certainly cold enough at times.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

HRDPS says tomorrow night might be interesting IMBY.

[Dave]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Socked in with overcast here. To get “clear” tonight I have to drive east to someplace with a drier climate, which probably means Kamloops or maybe Merritt if I am lucky.

That sucks. Probably not worth it. They are notorious for putting on a good show for 10 minutes and then going poof.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Socked in with overcast here. To get “clear” tonight I have to drive east to someplace with a drier climate, which probably means Kamloops or maybe Merritt if I am lucky.

The current space weather auroral oval graphic shows the lights should be visible as far south as northern WA right now.

Interestingly this event is being cause by a coronal hole as opposed to a solar flare / CME.

[Phishy Wx]

green 'ish' haze on the horizon here.  not enough for my phone camera to pick up.  will try again before bed

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Dave said:

That sucks. Probably not worth it. They are notorious for putting on a good show for 10 minutes and then going poof.

Yup, caught the end of a display a couple years ago when I was living in Bellingham. By the time I got out of town to where it was good and dark, gone. Plus the highway cams show Coquihalla Pass is getting a snowstorm tonight.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

HRDPS says tomorrow night might be interesting IMBY.

The ECMWF has been bullish for this area tomorrow night, but I'm not holding my breath.  At least the air mass is shown to certainly be cold enough.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has been bullish for this area tomorrow night, but I'm not holding my breath.  At least the air mass is shown to certainly be cold enough.

We shall see. I am frankly not the most optimistic about this. Have had crap luck with scoring snow in March in the PNW lowlands. But those -2˚C 925 mbar temps are encouraging.

[Dave]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The current space weather auroral oval graphic shows the lights should be visible as far south as northern WA right now.

Interestingly this event is being cause by a coronal hole as opposed to a solar flare / CME.

 

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has been bullish for this area tomorrow night, but I'm not holding my breath.  At least the air mass is shown to certainly be cold enough.

Yeah pretty much 0 expectations from me as well besides some flakes in the air at some point the next couple days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter tidings. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winter tidings. 

That brings back memories of High School. The track team was always having its practices and meets cancelled by spring snowfalls.

[snow_wizard]

Stampede Pass is down to 26 with strong onshore flow.  Impressively cold maritime polar air mass!

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah pretty much 0 expectations from me as well besides some flakes in the air at some point the next couple days. 

The thing that gets me is the ECMWF is going for 925mb temps of -3 late tomorrow night.  It's almost more a question of moisture than anything.  The moisture will be around, but it's hard to know where the bullseyes will be.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing that gets me is the ECMWF is going for 925mb temps of -3 late tomorrow night.  It's almost more a question of moisture than anything.  The moisture will be around, but it's hard to know where the bullseyes will be.

Very confusing... 925mb of -3C with a south wind all night.    Not sure what to make of that but I think it does come down to moisture and c-zone placement.  And I think the tendency will be for the c-zone to lift north by early Saturday morning.

[snow_wizard]

I think the next month is going to tell the tale on ENSO for this summer and beyond.  Still a decent chance of avoiding a Nino.  Chances for a Nina next winter are only about 5% though.

Right now I'm going for a mid year peak to weak Nino status (not official Nino though) and then falling to neutral in the autumn.  I reserve the right to change my mind though.

[Dave]

From the NWS Spokane office. 

 

[Slushy Inch]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very confusing... 925mb of -3C with a south wind all night.    Not sure what to make of that but I think it does come down to moisture and c-zone placement.  And I think the tendency will be for the c-zone to lift north by early Saturday morning.

I am annoyed that it feels like the PSCZ has mostly focused on Everett and north  for the last several months. Or at least it has mostly missed my area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

About 1.5” of snow this evening!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Apparently PDX hit 50 early today. Only 46 at Eug today. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Cell phone shot MBY

[Ken in Wood Village]

Let's see if this big slug of moisture stays together by the time it gets to me. It's moving so I'll stay up a little longer...lol

[ShawniganLake]

36 with some wet non sticking snow falling. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Apparently PDX hit 50 early today. Only 46 at Eug today. 

That was a midnight high. 48/38 day here so far.

[Dave]

36 with rain/snow mix. Nice to see a few chunky flakes.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I've stayed up to late but I'm having some chunky rain right now have a good night everyone  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

35F with an occasional shower. Looks like pretty big raindrops.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing and 31. Looks like 2-3" on the ground right now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That was a midnight high. 48/38 day here so far.

Still pretty darn lame!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next weekend looks shockingly cold on the 06z GFS. 

[TT-SEA]

Just had a band of precip move through... it was a mix of graupel, snow, and rain.    Temp is 35 with a gusty SW wind.    According to the ECMWF the 925mb is around -2C or -3C right now which would normally be good enough for accumulating snow here but pretty sure the wind is the issue.  

 

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Next weekend looks shockingly cold on the 06z GFS. 

GFS has been really consistent... but in disagreement with the ECMWF, EPS, and control run which show the bulk of that trough to the east with ridging building in next weekend.   Absolutely cannot discount the GFS when its this consistent though.   Sometimes it leads the ECMWF and EPS as we saw a few times this winter.   GFS has decent support from the GEFS as well.   It looks like the GEFS is between the ECMWF suite and GFS operational run.

Verbatim even the cold GFS does not show much lowland snow and shows high in the upper 40s next weekend.    Likely more snow for you though.

 

[TT-SEA]

Sticking snow at 1,300 feet at Tiger Mountain on Hwy 18 this morning.

[TT-SEA]

One other note for the fans of spring weather... models are consistent in showing a good part of the upcoming work week in between the cold troughs being pretty nice with sun and temps close to 60 on a few days so there is some variety.

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snowing and 31. Looks like 2-3" on the ground right now. 

Per the radar... another large batch of precip is moving through there now so assume your total might be higher now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

About 3" of additional snow has fallen since midnight. Over 4" on the ground. 

Salem was reporting snow and 34 on the hour, though looking at cams, it doesn't look like it stuck in the city. 

Edited March 24 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

About 3" of additional snow has fallen since midnight. 

Salem was reporting snow and 34 on the hour, though looking at cams, it doesn't look like it stuck in the city. 

How much on the ground now?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

How much on the ground now?

Almost 4.5"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter wonderland 

[Jakewestsalem]

Snowing in Stayton this morning. Sticking to all but the pavement. Looks to end soon though

[Jakewestsalem]

Check that.....roads are white now

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winter wonderland 

That is impressive.   How much more do you think you will get?   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This band is winding down, an even 5" on the ground now, 4" since midnight. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is impressive.   How much more do you think you will get?   

I doubt we'll get much during the day, probably similar amounts overnight. Over 25" on the month now, 76" on the season. 

Edited March 24 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I doubt we'll get much during the day, probably similar amounts overnight. Over 25" on the month now, 76" on the season. 

And maybe again on Saturday night.  

[Blizzard777]

Brother just sent me this from Damascus Oregon

33.8* and huge snowflakes

 

[Blizzard777]

I got a rock

Showers of possible mixed precipitations according to my app but haven’t witnessed it.

37* 

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 37 this morning, heard some heavy rain falling last night around 2am…but doubt any snow was mixing in. Maybe tonight, seems kind of like March 2012 which favored oregon similar to this event.