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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

STRONG feeling that our cold July will be a rock solid case of delayed but NOT denied.

August is the month we haven't been able to buy a cool anomaly this century though.

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  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think we may have hit the first peak of the solar cycle.  The last couple of days have had a lower sunspot number than any day since November.  On the last cycle the second peak was slightly higher than the first which is somewhat unusual.

We often have a loser winter or two just after the peak so my bets are on 2024-25 being a turd.  Interestingly the strongest solar max on record was in 1957, so that and the resultant El Nino is probably what brought an end to the amazing cold period we had in the late 1940s through 1957.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we may have hit the first peak of the solar cycle.  The last couple of days have had a lower sunspot number than any day since November.  On the last cycle the second peak was slightly higher than the first which is somewhat unusual.

We often have a loser winter or two just after the peak so my bets are on 2024-25 being a turd.  Interestingly the strongest solar max on record was in 1957, so that and the resultant El Nino is probably what brought an end to the amazing cold period we had in the late 1940s through 1957.

If we have a big late October cold snap this year then I'm throwing in the towel. If we get a dud I hope it's more like 2009-10 and not 2014-15. 

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  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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More of a direct hit for western WA with the Thursday/Friday trough.   Even shows snow for my area... but also shows a south wind and temps above freezing during that time so I doubt it amounts to much.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-9702400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

More of a direct hit for western WA with the Thursday/Friday trough.   Even shows snow for my area... but also shows a south wind and temps above freezing during that time so I doubt it amounts to much.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-9702400.png

Looks like close to 6" here. This could be a solid late season EVENT. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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EURO seems drier than the GEM and GFS after the first trough. It also shows lows into the mid-20s in the WV on Sunday and Monday. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

More of a direct hit for western WA with the Thursday/Friday trough.   Even shows snow for my area... but also shows a south wind and temps above freezing during that time so I doubt it amounts to much.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-9702400.png

Tacoma C-zone?

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The GFS and ECMWF both agree on daily averages dropping into the 8 to 10 below normal range later this week.  Should nicely round out a solidly cold March.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

More of a direct hit for western WA with the Thursday/Friday trough.   Even shows snow for my area... but also shows a south wind and temps above freezing during that time so I doubt it amounts to much.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-9702400.png

It would be nice to see one more event. I remember there was a nice little event on 3/22/13 that gave me an unexpected 1.5”. I remember the news saying it was going to snow but wasn’t going to really accumulate much but it ended up sticking to everything and I still had school that day and most of the buses ended up being 10+ minutes late because none of the roads were treated.

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 16

Number of 85+ days - 12

Number of 90+ days - 3

Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 96)

Number of 60+ lows - 0

 

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8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like PDX hit 60 for the 4th day in a row. Let’s hope we can put the overachieving warm spell thing to rest now and it doesn’t become the theme the next 6-7 months.

WOW! I did NOT see that coming! Different world down here. Light rain and 45. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I so hope we don't get a significant El Nino this year.  When we get on a cold roll like this it normally ends when a Nino knocks out the endless parade of GOA ridges.  High chance at least the early part of the next cold season will be very good if nothing upsets the apple cart.

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  • Weenie 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we have a big late October cold snap this year then I'm throwing in the towel. If we get a dud I hope it's more like 2009-10 and not 2014-15. 

If there's a Nino I agree.  October cold waves are toxic in that case.  If it's neutral I think an October cold wave would be fine.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we may have hit the first peak of the solar cycle.  The last couple of days have had a lower sunspot number than any day since November.  On the last cycle the second peak was slightly higher than the first which is somewhat unusual.

We often have a loser winter or two just after the peak so my bets are on 2024-25 being a turd.  Interestingly the strongest solar max on record was in 1957, so that and the resultant El Nino is probably what brought an end to the amazing cold period we had in the late 1940s through 1957.

Doubt we’ve hit the peak since the mean polar field/IMF hasn’t flipped yet (just the south pole). Maybe a year or two from maximum?

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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The MJO forecast is more bullish on the current wave staying strong over the Indian Ocean with each run.  Good sign for upsetting the development of any possible Nino.

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  • Weenie 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Doubt we’ve hit the peak since the mean polar field/IMF hasn’t flipped yet (just the south pole). Maybe a year or two from maximum?

I think we might see a case where the second peak is the highest again....like the last cycle.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I so hope we don't get a significant El Nino this year.  When we get on a cold roll like this it normally ends when a Nino knocks out the endless parade of GOA ridges.  High chance at least the early part of the next cold season will be very good if nothing upsets the apple cart.

Well that explains why you’re so adamantly against one. 😂

FWIW, it’s more likely to be an average/moderate event as opposed to a strong/super niño. We will know a *lot* more during/after the next MJO transit in mid/late April (which should also coincide with a flip to a warmer pattern in the NW, if all goes to plan).

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The MJO forecast is more bullish on the current wave staying strong over the Indian Ocean with each run.  Good sign for upsetting the development of any possible Nino.

Actually the stronger the MJO is during the EHEM transit, the stronger it will be coming out of the IO/IPWP, and thus will produce a stronger WWB/greater disruption of the Walker Cell, increasing the odds for a stronger El Niño.

The vigorous MJO response to SSW/MC acceleration is what killed the La Niña regime.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we might see a case where the second peak is the highest again....like the last cycle.

Definitely possible. Though I’m not a solar physicist so my opinion isn’t worth much.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

WOW! I did NOT see that coming! Different world down here. Light rain and 45. 

Now looking like one cool day tomorrow then they are in the low 60s again Tuesday/Wednesday. What happened to our cold month Andrew!?

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Now looking like one cool day tomorrow then they are in the low 60s again Tuesday/Wednesday. What happened to our cold month Andrew!?

Well, we should end up below normal, but most areas that didn't have 3 weeks of snow cover will not be in the top 10 for cold Marches. Oh well, such is lyfe in a rapidly warming klimate. 

  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Could see some cold lows over the weekend and early next week. Of course that won't impact PDX as much, if they do achieve a freeze it will likely be the last one of the season inside the urban core. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well, we should end up below normal, but most areas that didn't have 3 weeks of snow cover will not be in the top 10 for cold Marches. Oh well, such is lyfe in a rapidly warming klimate. 

Maybe we’re just not ready 2 be luved Andrew 

https://youtu.be/krdQLzzAeZU

 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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51F with some light rain.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Did some digging and as of today PDX is still tied for the 4th coldest March on record (average temp of 43.8, tied with 1954 and 1964). Of course there are still 13 days to go.

They would have to stay below 44.7 for an average temp to end up with a top ten coldest March. Seems like a long shot but the 3-10 day period is looking pretty chilly on the Euro…

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 hours ago, Doinko said:

Would that increase chances for thunderstorms here?

Effectively, yeah. Lots of vorticity and differential winds associated with cutoffs. And they are by definition divorced from the jet stream, so they can meander into warmer/moister airmasses and spark thunderstorms where there are better dynamics.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

If they did it it would be their first top ten cold March since 1976. We’ve had a lot of chilly Marches in recent years but nothing really top tier.

Good stuff. Seems largely a function of UHI. Takes an act of the GODS to pull off a cold low at PDX these days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

SLE has taken a pretty hard turn down that path as well in recent decades.

Oh absolutely. The price of PROGRESS.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good stuff. Seems largely a function of UHI. Takes an act of the GODS to pull off a cold low at PDX these days. 

...blessings?

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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12z Euro 10 Day Loop: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps. Snow maps are just eye candy.

In this pattern featuring cold onshore flow sticking snow is unlikely below around 1000' to maybe 700'. For us measly lowlanders we could see wet snow and slushy stuff on the trees, yards, and vehicles during the overnight and to around 8-9 AM.
floop-ecmwf_full-2023031912.500h_anom.na.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2023031912.850th.us_nw.gif

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I think it’s very possible I’m going to be adding even more to my freeze total this coming weekend.

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 16

Number of 85+ days - 12

Number of 90+ days - 3

Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 96)

Number of 60+ lows - 0

 

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16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Going through my video archives it appears we had some late season snow back on March 24th 2018 at our old place which was at 300’. 

IMG_4433.MOV

That was a huge storm down this way. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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