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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


Requiem

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Just now, Phil said:

Ironically one of my cousins from Everett is planning to move to North Bend this summer. IDK where, specifically, but it would be hilarious if he winds up living in Tim’s neighborhood. 😂 Could compare observations and everything!

Hard to believe someone would move to 5,000 feet.   😀

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Hard to believe someone would move to 5,000 feet.   😀

I would! If it were allowed, I’d build a place on top of one of those ridges next to your neighborhood. Looks like they get a lot of snow. ⛄️ 

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Just now, Phil said:

I would! If it were allowed, I’d build a place on top of one of those ridges next to your neighborhood. Looks like they get a lot of snow. ⛄️ 

Not allowed of course.   

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Mostly sunny tomorrow with rain.  😀

Wednesday will be probably be close to 60.

And there won't be any snow here this work week.

Mostly sunny with a chance of rain is like every summer day here. What’s so unusual about that?

Summer is both the sunniest and wettest time of year here. Since 2013 my backyard has averaged over 9” of rain in July alone.

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Just now, Phil said:

Mostly sunny with a chance of rain is like every summer day here. What’s so unusual about that?

Its not summer and this is not DC.  👍

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not allowed of course.   

If that changes I’ll be the first one to buy.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It’s not summer and this is not DC.  👍

So you’ve never seen partly cloudy days with occasional sun showers? Fascinating.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

If that changes I’ll be the first one to buy.

Mountains to Sound Greenway trust which prevents it runs for like 200 years.    Maybe you will make it.  😀

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Just now, Phil said:

So you’ve never seen partly cloudy days with occasional sun showers? Weird.

Many such days.    Just not the right pattern for that.    Are you bored this morning?  

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you bored this morning?  

Yeah, duh.

And lamenting the fact this was probably our last low 20s morning until next Nov/Dec. 😞 

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Really fun GFS run. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Been mostly out of it the last few days…How’s my foot of snow looking for this weekend, Tim? 
Currently 46 with dribbles. .02” so far on the day. Too bad this didn’t happen in January. 

C190F901-6882-4FF3-9C0E-D967B068433B.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Been mostly out of it the last few days…How’s my foot of snow looking for this weekend, Tim? 
Currently 46 with dribbles. .02” so far on the day. Too bad this didn’t happen in January. 

C190F901-6882-4FF3-9C0E-D967B068433B.jpeg

Not good!  

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Looks like the 12z gives me 25" of Kuchera!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the 12z gives me 25" of Kuchera!

And when accounting for terrain bleed over 384 hours... probably nothing for me.

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Yeah, duh.

And lamenting the fact this was probably our last low 20s morning until next Nov/Dec. 😞 

I had a 25 on 4/2 last year, and 28 on 4/20. :P

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

was suppose to rain today, .3-.5" ish

 

lol, nothing but clouds and 51

 

trying to pivot in, but looks like dry air is winning the battle

I am watching the radar hoping a batch of rain coming this way hits us.  This system has been disappointing.   We really need more rain.    

12Z ECMWF continues the drier than normal theme for western WA over the next 10 days.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_10day-0177600.png

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Happy Equinox!! 🌸 🐰 🐣 🪺 ✝️ 🙏 

Technically not until 2:24pm 😔

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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52 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

How much for Phil’s future home on the 5000’ ridge overlooking your backyard.  
 

Scored some drizzle this morning here. 🌧️ 

I heard that Phil has the glass cabin at Desolation Peak under contract! Looks like just enough parking for his Acura as well! 

7692FD5B-D60A-40A7-91C5-A88379D19083.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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14 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS meteorgrams show every day solidly below normal from the 23rd through 31st for SEA.  Pretty big deal for that relatively warm biased product.

Interesting - a colleague of mine did an analysis on model biases this winter for the PNW and found that the GFS had the coldest bias of the major models this season 

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18 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After this winter I believe we are playing with house money. Go big or go home. 

I believe we’ve had a good run of winters for the valley locales. Could they somehow coincide with how warm the summers have been? If I recall correctly the summer of ‘09 was scorching in the Portland area which followed the great winter before it. The summers now are scorching and therefore there’s more cold and snow late in the winters. Just food for thought. 
 

maybe if we have a normal to slightly cool summer the winter will be relatively warmer as well. Thoughts on that guys?

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Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

I believe we’ve had a good run of winters for the valley locales. Could they somehow coincide with how warm the summers have been? If I recall correctly the summer of ‘09 was scorching in the Portland area which followed the great winter before it. The summers now are scorching and therefore there’s more cold and snow late in the winters. Just food for thought. 
 

maybe if we have a normal to slightly cool summer the winter will be relatively warmer as well. Thoughts on that guys?

I don't think our wintertime averages have dropped though, but we have had some decent events and even months. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I believe we’ve had a good run of winters for the valley locales. Could they somehow coincide with how warm the summers have been? If I recall correctly the summer of ‘09 was scorching in the Portland area which followed the great winter before it. The summers now are scorching and therefore there’s more cold and snow late in the winters. Just food for thought. 
 

maybe if we have a normal to slightly cool summer the winter will be relatively warmer as well. Thoughts on that guys?

The 2014-2016 stretch of awful winters and scorching summers doesn't really fit that.

It's all really just global warming and natural variability.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Always nice to see the MOAR XTREAMS!1!1!1! argument rear its ugly head again.

I love that stupid argument because

1) The warm extremes are vastly more common and more divorced from climatology, and are causing extensive, observable damage.

2) The cold and snow 'extremes' we've come to recieve in the last half decade a have an equal or a superior analog some distance into the past, whether that be from 2016-17 or 1861-62. Often times there are multiple analogs with much more vigor. January's 1949 and 1950 are the ultimate examples. Nothing we have recieved even comes close to unprecedented cold. Even the April 2022 snowstorm in the Portland area has analogs in 2008 and 1929.

Perhaps October 2019 in Spokane? That's the only cold extreme I can think of that's actually gone and surprised me with its teeth and its longevity and historical significance.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rainy equinox in the EPSL.   Live view from Issaquah shows the rain and recent warmth is waking up the landscape.  

 

Screenshot_20230320-140227_Chrome.jpg

B4AD07FA-AFCB-436D-8C69-3050D65C9DCF.jpeg

Mild and humid in Seattle with a beautiful, variable sky. Humidity is keeping everything damp from last night's rain despite the sun.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

B4AD07FA-AFCB-436D-8C69-3050D65C9DCF.jpeg

Mild and humid in Seattle with a beautiful, variable sky. Humidity is keeping everything damp from last night's rain despite the sun.

Lovely.    It was actually dusty when I was mowing the lawn on Saturday which was mostly grinding up left over dead leaves and branches.     Today everything has a soft green look to it.    I love rain right after the first spring warm spell.   

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26 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I love that stupid argument because

1) The warm extremes are vastly more common and more divorced from climatology, and are causing extensive, observable damage.

2) The cold and snow 'extremes' we've come to recieve in the last half decade a have an equal or a superior analog some distance into the past, whether that be from 2016-17 or 1861-62. Often times there are multiple analogs with much more vigor. January's 1949 and 1950 are the ultimate examples. Nothing we have recieved even comes close to unprecedented cold. Even the April 2022 snowstorm in the Portland area has analogs in 2008 and 1929.

Perhaps October 2019 in Spokane? That's the only cold extreme I can think of that's actually gone and surprised me with its teeth and its longevity and historical significance.

I would argue February 2019 was significant. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would argue February 2019 was significant. 

Undoubtedly. But it has historical precedent for both the cold and the snow; that is what I am referring to, not if it was significant or not. 1989, 1956, 1936, and 1916 all had either more snow, cold, or both for much of the region, and there are probably many more examples.

Our recent heat records are blowing away anything we've ever seen since this region during recorded history.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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21 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Undoubtedly. But it has historical precedent for both the cold and the snow; that is what I am referring to, not if it was significant or not. 1989, 1956, 1936, and 1916 all had either more snow, cold, or both for much of the region, and there are probably many more examples.

Our recent heat records are blowing away anything we've ever seen since this region during recorded history.

Good point!

 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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