PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

All the way up in Marysville for work today after being in Redmond. Haven’t seen any snow. I’ll be over at Randy’s house soon with an industrial grade blowtorch to melt his snow. If nobody else got snow he can’t have any either. 

It'll be gone soon.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Next meaningful precip up here is not until Friday night on the 12Z ECMWF.   That is almost a week away.   Pretty crazy.  

@LowerGarfield this runs delays precip enough that there shouldn't be any issues over the pass for either of us on Friday.

As little as the models the models have been showing reality has been even less.  The next two weeks look like more of the same.  Lots of below temps as well.

[snow_wizard]

59 minutes ago, Phil said:

Good grief.

 

That is an ugly consequence of cold troughing in the NW.

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It'll be gone soon.

Several posters down here had sticking snow this morning too.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can't even describe how satisfied I am with how this winter turned out. Could have had more arctic air, could have had more snow in Dec/Jan, but no complaints. Ready for classic spring weather. 

You and Whatcom County are pretty much in the minority.  Kind of disappointment for most other places.  NW OR did well with the late stuff and this area did well with the early stuff, but on the whole I can't give this winter better than a B here, and that's only because there has been so much cold.

We just can't seem to get a winter where everywhere does really well.

[Dave]

Heavy snow!

[MossMan]

The sun tried but the clouds said nope! 

[Dave]

35 degrees and not sticking, but still...

[snow_wizard]

Right now I'm thinking the Puget Sound area will be downgraded (or upgraded depending how you look at it) to a moderate drought fairly soon on the Drought Monitor site.  Kind of getting a 1952 flavor.

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It'll be gone soon.

My snow pile should last a day or two! 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Several posters down here had sticking snow this morning too.

I wasn't aware of that.  Pardon me for being a bit down about the second half of the winter here.  We haven't been able to buy anything in the way of snow.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Someone has their finger on the downvote button as they wait for Jim and Tim to post.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Right now I'm thinking the Puget Sound area will be downgraded (or upgraded depending how you look at it) to a moderate drought fairly soon on the Drought Monitor site.  Kind of getting a 1952 flavor.

What is your total liquid accumulation so far for the month? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You and Whatcom County are pretty much in the minority.  Kind of disappointment for most other places.  NW OR did well with the late stuff and this area did well with the early stuff, but on the whole I can't give this winter better than a B here, and that's only because there has been so much cold.

We just can't seem to get a winter where everywhere does really well.

Interesting how people's perspectives are shaped. Everyone loves to talk about 2020-21 like its the bees knees even though it absolutely sucked aside from a 3 day event. Wouldn't you rather have 5 months of generally cold wintry conditions, even if you have less snow in the end? I get it, our views of that winter are clouded for opposite reasons, but you hear me? 

You can't have a much more solidly chilly November-March in the PNW then we just had. Could there have been aspects that would have made it better, even a lot better, sure, but given the norm, this one was pretty good. Even if it doesn't stack up with 2008-09 or 2016-17 for most lowland locations. 

[Dave]

Snowing so hard it is sticking. At noon.

[The Cats Meow]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... not saying its really warm but going to be a beautiful day up here for yard work.  

The wife has Covid so I been outside all morning shaping the rose bushes, pruning a little and shaping the apple tree and even cut the grass.  The sunshine definitely boost the spirits.

 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Quite sunny here and 42... and looks like we are done with any significant moisture from this system.  

Good catch on the snow map.   I looked at the 24-hour period from 5 p.m. today to 5 p.m. tomorrow and it looks like most of that snow is this afternoon.

 

Can't imagine why you got a downvote on this post.  Am I missing something?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting how people's perspectives are shaped. Everyone loves to talk about 2020-21 like its the bees knees even though it absolutely sucked aside from a 3 day event. Wouldn't you rather have 5 months of generally cold wintry conditions, even if you have less snow in the end? I get it, our views of that winter are clouded for opposite reasons, but you hear me? 

You can't have a much more solidly chilly November-March in the PNW then we just had. Could there have been aspects that would have made it better, even a lot better, sure, but given the norm, this one was pretty good. Even if it doesn't stack up with 2008-09 or 2016-17 for most lowland locations. 

20/21?  We only had the one event in Feb up here.  It was nice, but the rest of winter was pretty mild.

I do agree about the cold being quite solid this winter.  Over the last month we have gotten as little snow as is possible given the pattern.  That is very frustrating.

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't imagine why you got a downvote on this post.  Am I missing something?

@Cascadia_Wx procedure 

1. Look for new posts

2. Check if they are @snow_wizard or @TT-SEA

3. If Yes, hit the downvote button, if No, wait for more posts

[Dave]

The show is over, but super sweet to get a minor dusting in late March in the middle of the day. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't imagine why you got a downvote on this post.  Am I missing something?

LOL.

Here is the deal... Jesse hates my presence here (or anywhere) and thinks I am completely fake.   He thinks I genuinely hate people on here and hate when they talk about cold and snow and hate the PNW and everyone in it.   His ability to hold a grudge is second to none.   If he wants to think all those things about me and assume I am evil and forever malicious then that is his choice.

But given all of that... every downvote I get from him means that I annoyed him and that makes me happy.   

[Doinko]

Snowpack looks great

[snow_wizard]

I think the problem for much of Western WA lately is we have been too far north to cash in on the cold showers rotating around the base of the troughs, and too far south to get any benefit from the cold continental air and deformation zones north of the ULL centers.  Bad luck.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Didn’t have any sticking snow last night, but it was falling at points again. Most of the moisture seemed to be focused to the south and west overnight though. Low of 34 here, partly to mostly cloudy and up to 41 now.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Snowpack looks great

The center of OR really needed that.  That area is still listed as being in extreme or exceptional drought.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Snowpack looks great

It does look great. Especially in the drought stricken SE part of the state. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Snowpack looks great

That is a big story where the news keeps getting better. Washington is still farther behind once you get north of Snoqualmie pass or so. Hopefully they will get a chance to make up more up there later in the spring.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It does look great. Especially in the drought stricken SE part of the state. 

Could be a fun summer to go up to Steens Mountain Andrew. Would be as green as Ireland.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That is a big story where the news keeps getting better. Washington is still farther behind once you get north of Snoqualmie pass or so. Hopefully they will get a chance to make up more up there later in the spring.

If this continues like 1952 it will only get worse for WA.  Everything kept going south that year.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the problem for much of Western WA lately is we have been too far north to cash in on the cold showers rotating around the base of the troughs, and too far south to get any benefit from the cold continental air and deformation zones north of the ULL centers.  Bad luck.

Not really bad luck... generally speaking a persistently stormy pattern for CA is pretty quiet up here but not as much for OR.   There are exceptions of course.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

If this continues like 1952 it will only get worse for WA.  Everything kept going south that year.

Let’s hope it doesn’t.  

[snow_wizard]

Pretty insane.  10 days out and still the same.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty insane.  10 days out and still the same.

Doesn’t look western droughty enough. Next!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty insane.  10 days out and still the same.

I mentioned this yesterday... in the Ag Weather update on Thursday they talked about the MJO going into phase 6 and 7 next and showed that is a cold pattern for the PNW in April.    It might not warm up until the second half of April.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Doesn’t look western droughty enough. Next!

Just took a closer look at this run and it would be a top tier early April trough. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Doesn’t look western droughty enough. Next!

Most precip would be south of WA.  Troughs don't always mean wet.  Look at 1985.  constant troughs and it was quite dry much of the year.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just took a closer look at this run and it would be a top tier early April trough. 

The real deal. But do you think all of April will stay cool and troughy Uncle Andrew?

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Most precip would be south of WA.  Troughs don't mean wet.

They do somewhere. That would continue to be a wet pattern for California and the desert SW. As well as here at times. That’s a big change from recent years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The real deal. But do you think all of April will stay cool and troughy Uncle Andrew?

Probably not the whole month. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

They do somewhere. That would continue to be a wet pattern for California and the desert SW. As well as here at times. That’s a big change from recent years.

March right now is the wettest since 2017 at PDX. 2018-2022 were all dry though

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF shows several inches of phantom snow for SEA again.  Wish I could have a dollar for every inch it has shown here since mid Feb.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably not the whole month. 

You never know though.  This pattern is locked.  We had better pray we don't have a Nino next winter.  Very cold springs like this followed by a Nino are toxic.  1982 and 2002 are great examples.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows several inches of phantom snow for SEA again.  Wish I could have a dollar for every inch it has shown here since mid Feb.

This has already been talked about ad nauseum, but it does amaze me that with all of the upgrades to the models in recent years they seem to be spitting out more accumulating 35-36 degree snow than ever before. You’d think getting the temperature at which snow sticks right would be a pretty basic thing for an incredibly advanced weather model that can accurately predict complex 500mb patterns at great range. Maybe I’m missing something.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows several inches of phantom snow for SEA again.  Wish I could have a dollar for every inch it has shown here since mid Feb.

Kuchera map doesn't show much for Seattle.   Definitely need to use Kuchera at this point because 10:1 ratios are pretty much impossible.    

That being said... even the Kuchera showed several inches of snow for a large part of King County happening over the last 2 days and over 6 inches for my area and we got nothing.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Most precip would be south of WA.  Troughs don't always mean wet.  Look at 1985.  constant troughs and it was quite dry much of the year.

Sounds like a nightmare. Like constantly going to fancy restaurants and looking at the menu and picking out what you want, but never ordering any food.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was trying to think of a good analog for the last couple of months. Maybe 1985? What y'all think?!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 35F under a snow shower a bit ago. One of the later snows I can remember.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You never know though.  This pattern is locked.  We had better pray we don't have a Nino next winter.  Very cold springs like this followed by a Nino are toxic.  1982 and 2002 are great examples.

Or it ends up like 2018 and starts torching by late April. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

March right now is the wettest since 2017 at PDX. 2018-2022 were all dry though

That was a very wet March. This one is just slightly above average. 

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was a very wet March. This one is just slightly above average. 

2016/2017 was really wet for CA but it was also really wet for us outside of December/January. Haven't really seen the really wet conditions here this winter. 2012 was also a really wet March