PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Phil]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I mentioned this yesterday... in the Ag Weather update on Thursday they talked about the MJO going into phase 6 and 7 next and showed that is a cold pattern for the PNW in April.    It might not warm up until the second half of April.  

It’ll probably warm up right as you leave for SC.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’ll probably warm up right as you leave for SC.

Ironically that exact thing happened in 2018.   It was in the 80s here when we were in Charleston.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

-10 departure at SLE today. 

Pretty lame here today.  It actually got up to 49, which is chilly, but not THAT chilly.  Hopefully we can at least get some good mins up here.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Patterns never continue along the same path... and we are quite a bit further along with transitioning out of the Nina than at this time in 2018.   No idea if that means anything.

 

North/South Pacific Meridional Modes are inverted with respect to 2018 though. Don’t think it’s a viable analog as far as NH weather patterns are concerned, outside any overlap in MJO/intraseasonal oscillations.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

North/South Pacific Meridional Modes are inverted with respect to 2018 though. Don’t think it’s a viable analog as far as NH weather patterns are concerned, outside any overlap in MJO/intraseasonal oscillations.

Time will tell.   I didn't say it was an analog... people were just talking about the similarities this year in regard to our local weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty lame here today.  It actually got up to 49, which is chilly, but not THAT chilly.  Hopefully we can at least get some good mins up here.

SLE was 45/33. 36/30 here. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

North/South Pacific Meridional Modes are inverted with respect to 2018 though. Don’t think it’s a viable analog as far as NH weather patterns are concerned, outside any overlap in MJO/intraseasonal oscillations.

That -PDO right now is quite profound.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE was 45/33. 36/30 here. 

As weird as it sounds we have just been too far north to cash in on these last few troughs.  850s have gotten cold and all of that, but it just hasn't translated at the surface for cold max temps and snowfall.

[Phil]

Next round of WWBs now on the horizon.

[T-Town]

Nice sunny chilly day today. Saw an eagle on my walk earlier. Too far away to get a good pic. 

[TT-SEA]

Last summer made me realize analogs are mostly useless. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

As weird as it sounds we have just been too far north to cash in on these last few troughs.  850s have gotten cold and all of that, but it just hasn't translated at the surface for cold max temps and snowfall.

It makes sense. 2012 was similar in that sense. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

As weird as it sounds we have just been too far north to cash in on these last few troughs.  850s have gotten cold and all of that, but it just hasn't translated at the surface for cold max temps and snowfall.

Lots of sun too.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Speaking of the Northern Lights...this recent event had an even more rare aspect to it.  STEVE was actually visible over WA for a time.  Can't remember exactly what the acronym stands for, but it only happens with some Auroras.

I missed him

[Omegaraptor]

Hail!

[MossMan]

45/32 on the day. 
Currently 41. 

[Doinko]

Went back to the July 2019 thread. This was a really great storm on the 1st. Heavy hail with it too

 

[Doinko]

26 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Went back to the July 2019 thread. This was a really great storm on the 1st. Heavy hail with it too

 

I really hope we can see a year for thunderstorms like that again. There was the 6/26/2019 thunderstorm, I think something on the 27th too. Then another big one on 7/1, and then in September there was a tornado less than 5 miles away and then we managed 2" of rain in an hour on the next day

[AlTahoe]

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

You never know though.  This pattern is locked.  We had better pray we don't have a Nino next winter.  Very cold springs like this followed by a Nino are toxic.  1982 and 2002 are great examples.

With the snow we have had this year going into an El Nino 1982-1983 would be the only analog coming up. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

HEAVY SNOW!

[Doinko]

This was 9/8/2019. The 2.17" station is very close to my area, and 1.88" of that fell in an hour

[LowerGarfield]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Next meaningful precip up here is not until Friday night on the 12Z ECMWF.   That is almost a week away.   Pretty crazy.  

@LowerGarfield this runs delays precip enough that there shouldn't be any issues over the pass for either of us on Friday.

That would be nice! Hoping it holds. The quickest route over the snake announced they will be closed Friday afternoon, adding an hour on my route so I'll continue to watch for the updates which are super appreciated by the way, @TT-SEA. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That shower just dropped another 1.2" of snow. Only .2" of snow away from moving past January 2012. 

Edited March 26 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That shower just dropped another 1.2" of snow. Only .2" of snow away from moving past January 2012. 

Have you passed 80"?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Have you passed 80"?

82.9" now. 66.8" since February 13th. 

[LowerGarfield]

@TigerWoodsLibidowhat is/was your cold season snow total...saw you had flakes today.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty frustrating that the GFS got worse after the upgrade.   And it seems like the ECMWF has gotten a little worse as well.   Or maybe it just feels like it because we had so many marginal set ups this year.

Just don't remember the phantom snow problem being as bad 3 or 4 years ago. Though that's also when I moved north the Chuckanut Mountains so can't rule out it simply working worse for the local climate here.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I am seriously bummed we didn't get to see that amazing event here due to cloud cover.

It was apparently visible from the westernmost parts of Vancouver around 2:00 am. Alas it was a week night and I live in East Van. Did get up twice to check and saw nothing but the glow of city lights reflecting from the overcast.

[AlTahoe]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

82.9" now. 66.8" since February 13th. 

You are sub 2000' elevation correct? That is a very impressive seasonal total. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

You are sub 2000' elevation correct? That is a very impressive seasonal total. 

Yes, it's our 2nd highest seasonal total since I moved here in 2011. The 11-12' season had several huge storms, but they all melted very quickly, that winter was much warmer (and wetter) overall. 

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Last summer made me realize analogs are mostly useless. 

It's all HAWTTER and DRIER from here on out 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This trough to end the month is starting to look like a BEAST.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Final round of snow has ended, about 1/2" with this band. Up to 4.7" on the day 36/30. Skies are clear now. 12.9" with this trough since Thursday afternoon. 

Edited March 26 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This trough to end the month is starting to look like a BEAST.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That trough next weekend is looking pretty insane. 

[Phil]

Haven’t seen fog like this since Haida Gawaii, BC in 2017. Vis maybe 200ft.

[TT-SEA]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That trough next weekend is looking pretty insane. 

For the first time in what seems like forever... the GFS actually doesn't show any lowland snow for the next 17 days and that is saying something for the GFS!

And how about this absolute beast later next week.   The GFS shows some 60-degree rain with this monster.   Personally I would love some warm rain with southerly flow.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And how about this absolute beast later next week.   The GFS shows some 60-degree rain with this monster.   Personally I would love some warm rain with southerly flow.

[lowlandsnow]

Insane amounts of snow for California 

[MossMan]

Conflicting reports!

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Insane amounts of snow for California 

And for 131w/44n.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For the first time in what seems like forever... the GFS actually doesn't show any lowland snow for the next 17 days and that is saying something for the GFS!

And how about this absolute beast later next week.   The GFS shows some 60-degree rain with this monster.   Personally I would love some warm rain with southerly flow.

EPS says no.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Why do you say that?   Its been very dry and warm rain is awesome at kicking plant growth into high gear.   I would take 3 days of warm, humid rain over 3 days of sunshine right now.   No joke.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Sounds like the in-laws on Bull Mountain in Tigard had about 1.5” of snow this morning. There still were some patches here and there when we came over earlier.

[snow_wizard]

As frustrating as it is for me watching the same people getting snow nearly every day I would still choose the current pattern over going into warm rain.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Insane amounts of snow for California 

Yay.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As frustrating as it is for me watching the same people getting snow nearly every day I would still choose the current pattern over going into warm rain.

A little variety is nice and warm rain would be how we can make up precip deficits quickly.    

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

A little variety is nice and warm rain would be how we can make up precip deficits quickly.    

I'm just afraid if we go there we will be stuck in it for weeks.

[snow_wizard]

I like how people handing out the weenie tags act like they wouldn't be pissy getting shafted for the last month.

[snow_wizard]

Very immature Jesse.