PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

One thing I’ve noticed even with the Niño strengthening is that our offshore waters remain colder than average, and there is a pretty robust -PDO signature in the Pacific.

Correct, and the opposite is true in the Southern Hemisphere.

Previously, and for many years, it was the North Pacific Meridional Mode that was persistently positive, while the South Pacific Meridional Mode was been persistently negative.

[AlTahoe]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

Have you surpassed 2010-2011 for snowfall yet?

By Tuesday morning I will be ahead of that winter. Donner summit already passed it and is only behind 1951-1952 for snowiest winter ever 

[TT-SEA]

Wednesday also looks beautiful with wall-to-wall sun and temps getting into the low 60s for most of western WA.   Looks about like was advertised this week.   ECMWF has been running 3-4 degrees too cool on sunny days which seems to just be the norm except for maybe in the dead of winter.  

[Omegaraptor]

33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ridiculous lows down in south central Oregon this morning. 

Looks like SUNRIVER got to 3.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Correct, and the opposite is true in the Southern Hemisphere.

Previously, and for many years, it was the North Pacific Meridional Mode that was persistently positive, while the South Pacific Meridional Mode was been persistently negative.

I’ll have to warn my friend who lives in Christchurch, New Zealand that it isn’t coming

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wednesday also looks beautiful with wall-to-wall sun and temps getting into the low 60s for most of western WA.   Looks about like was advertised this week.   ECMWF has been running 3-4 degrees too cool on sunny days which seems to just be the norm except for maybe in the dead of winter.  

I think I'm going to hike Mt. Pisgah on Wednesday. 

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What are your early analogs? I've seen you mention 1997-98, if I recall that one had a pretty wet spring at least. 

1997 was more in relation to the intraseasinal component(s) of the transition period.

I’m torn between the canonical/east-based +ENSO mode (like 1997/98) and the “cold phase” +ENSO mode (pre-1976). As of now the system state appears to be trending towards the latter (top-left).

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'll be real here, Tim. The fact we are going to be sitting at 2 months of mega troughing by the time we hit mid-April lends some credence to the idea of worm turnage. Just like by the time we were torching like a wildfire into mid-October it seemed pretty obvious the pattern would flip big time when it did. 

Yeah, I think the writing is on the wall that at very least this default troughing patterns going to fade away in the next month. Where we go from there is the real question. Could just be a more average-ish pattern for awhile. Even that would be a huge blessing. Compared to past years.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF also shows Thursday being sunny and mild across western WA... the runs yesterday showed way more clouds for that day.    

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF holds off precip in western WA through Friday afternoon... good for pass travel that day.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah, I think the writing is on the wall that at very least this default troughing patterns going to fade away in the next month. Where we go from there is the real question. Could just be a more average-ish pattern for awhile. Even that would be a huge blessing. Compared to past years.

That's what I'm hoping for. Part of me wishes we had a wetter winter, but on the other hand we just didn't waste a lot of time on warm rain and 7000' snow levels. 

[TT-SEA]

Low offshore clearly visible in cloud map for next Saturday... windy and showery day but might see some sun over in Pullman.

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

He does very well with ENSO stuff... he called for a multi-year Nina period in the early 2020s years before it happened. 

Glad someone recognizes this.  Don’t want to sound boastful but I’m proud of that prediction.

Without question I struggle when it comes to spotting smaller scale/emergent components within larger scale patterns. That stuff arises out of the system’s “red noise”, which is already mischaracterized by our teleconnective indices.

The one exception is my own region, which I can predict down to the smallest detail in my sleep. Haha.

[ShawniganLake]

37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just looking at 2013-2022 and the run of ridiculous summers we had, I have a hard time pinpointing ENSO as one of the major factors. The warmth was pretty consistent regardless of ENSO, even 2019 which people act like was a cool summer, was pretty warm overall. At this point its hard to say what will happen with summer. 

I’ve always maintained the Enso connection to our weather in summer is weak at best. 

[TT-SEA]

Same story on Sunday... low spinning offshore.   And per usual this pattern means the sunniest place is from Seattle to Bellingham. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Same story on Sunday... low spinning offshore.   And per usual this pattern means the sunniest place is from Seattle to Bellingham. 

Looks like mid-40s highs in W. Oregon. That's a good 15 degrees below normal. Very NOICE.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like mid-40s highs in W. Oregon. That's a good 15 degrees below normal. Very NOICE.

Probably low 50s for the Puget Sound area... a bit closer to normal.  

[Deweydog]

Had some VERY chunky rain this morning as we rolled through Napavine. Sorry no pics.

Edited March 26 by Deweydog

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

I think Phil said at one point that the easiest way to get a cool summer in the PNW now might actually be via a Nino.

Well that is a state-dependent outcome. The large scale boundary conditions through which any ENSO event emerges are what truly matter, not the ENSO sign/amplitude alone.

For example (and skipping over some details) the lines are actually quite blurred with respect to outcomes in east-based +ENSO and west-based -ENSO, sometimes in their respective emergent phases, sometimes in their decay, both of which can be quasi-static or dynamic.

If linear/1-to-1 predictions were possible, a majority of the weather/climate industry would be out of business.

[Doinko]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Glad someone recognizes this.  Don’t want to sound boastful but I’m proud of that prediction.

Without question I struggle when it comes to spotting smaller scale/emergent components within larger scale patterns. That stuff arises out of the system’s “red noise”, which is already mischaracterized by our teleconnective indices.

The one exception is my own region, which I can predict down to the smallest detail in my sleep. Haha.

I remember you predicted the mid-December period of extreme blocking a few weeks in advance. That was amazing to experience in Denver

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF ends up right where we have been for so long... deep trough over CA with western WA in the quiet no-mans land.   And overall it was another much drier than normal run for SW BC and western WA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Phil]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Given the past decade I am sure we will have plenty of warm weather, but as for the rest of your statement, there is no way to know. Very possible we have only one year of Nino. You probably are unaware, but Nina are more common then Ninos. An informed person would surmise the potential for ENSO neutral years as well, which tend to be exciting wildcards. We have compiled a massive debt of heat and drought and now the bill is coming due. Might be time to activate that escape hatch.

Multiyear niñas are more common than multiyear niños in the post-WWII era. I wouldn’t take it beyond that.

In the 1990s, niños were more common than niñas. And the vast majority of proxy evidence suggests a niño-like base state dominated during the LIA.

And ironically, the MWP (which featured the last multicentury western megadrought) was almost certainly dominated by a niña-like base state. In fact the SSTA/500mb structure over the last several years is likely the same pattern that took place in the MWP (EPAC Niña/large WPAC warm pool, +NPMM, +NAO, broad/poleward z-cells, large 4CH, warm globe). It’s an eerie match.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are living through history folks! Greatest snow pack on record for Utah! I would guess we will see significant rises in the GREAT SALT LAKE this spring! 

https://www.ksl.com/article/50606204/utahs-statewide-snowpack-breaks-record-set-40-years-ago

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF ends up right where we have been for so long... deep trough over CA with western WA in the quiet no-mans land.   And overall it was another much drier than normal run for SW BC and western WA.

March is going to end up fairly close to normal here. A little cool and dry.  We are currently only running -1.2F and precip is about 1.5” below average. Snowfall is also basically normal. 

[TT-SEA]

Another partly sunny day here... with no significant precip coming until late Friday.    I wish March had been wetter but this has been a really pleasant month overall here and unusually sunny.  Particularly nice considering there has been reep troughing for most of the month.    It's the been the complete opposite of the persistently rainy situation last spring and much more enjoyable.  At least so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another partly sunny day here... with no significant precip coming until late Friday.    I wish March had been wetter but this has been a really pleasant month overall here and unusually sunny.  Particularly nice considering there has been reep troughing for most of the month.    It's the been the complete opposite of the persistently rainy situation last spring and much more enjoyable.  At least so far.

March was warm and dry here last year. 

Looking at the stats, it looks like we had a mean temp of 44 for the month, so this year will be about 7F cooler. 7.76" of rain, so just slightly below normal, but it definitely was not a wet month. That really got going in April and went through the first 2/3 of June. 

 

Edited March 26 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just looking at 2013-2022 and the run of ridiculous summers we had, I have a hard time pinpointing ENSO as one of the major factors. The warmth was pretty consistent regardless of ENSO, even 2019 which people act like was a cool summer, was pretty warm overall. At this point its hard to say what will happen with summer. 

I call summer 2019 average. Looking back, it didn't have a month as cool as July 2016, but it helped not having major heatwaves in the mix. 

[Doinko]

Just now, Timmy Supercell said:

I call summer 2019 average. Looking back, it didn't have a month as cool as July 2016, but it helped not having major heatwaves in the mix. 

I've been scrolling through the summer 2019 threads the past few days and it was a great year for thunderstorms. It's been pretty bad recently for storms. I saw one distant flash of lightning in August 2022 and heard some thunder in September but that's all I remember in the past few years. I think 2008 was a good year for them?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

March was warm and dry here last year. 

Yes... I was comparing it to persistently rainy pattern from late March through early June last year.  Which is why I said at least so far.    I did not enjoy that very troughy period too much... but this has been quite enjoyable and looks to continue.   Devil is in the details as usual.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... I was comparing it to persistently rainy pattern from late March through early June last year.  Which is why I said at least so far.    I did not enjoy that very troughy period too much... but this has been quite enjoyable and looks to continue.   Devil is in the details as usual.  

Okay, now I will make a similar comparison. 

This year has been very enjoyable so far. Much cooler than last summer. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

I've been scrolling through the summer 2019 threads the past few days and it was a great year for thunderstorms. It's been pretty bad recently for storms. I saw one distant flash of lightning in August 2022 and heard some thunder in September but that's all I remember in the past few years. I think 2008 was a good year for them?

2008 and 2009 were good years for those in Washington County. '08 actually had a fair number of warmer core convection and ones that lasted overnight into AM hours. In '09, there was of course that outbreak in June but most of that year's t'storms were in the transition seasons. I remember not having any thunder between mid-June to early October 2009 which was an unusual gap in activity. 

[Phil]

And FWIW, the reason the globe cools during La Niña years is because of increased heat/radiation uptake by the oceans. IE: The system is absorbing more energy. The opposite is true during El Niño. This is confirmed via satellite derived estimates of the radiation budget at the TOA.

If we were to hypothetically remain in an unbroken La Niña for the next 50+ years, the globe would actually warm with time (after any short term cooling at onset), all else being equal. Vice versa for El Niño.

The transition into a more +ENSO dominant state during the late 1200s/early 1300s preceded the LIA cooling trend by at least a century. Meanwhile, as Andrew mentioned, the post-WWII era has been La Niña dominant, and we have observed warming.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay, now I will make a similar comparison. 

This year has been very enjoyable so far. Much cooler than last summer. 

Not quite the same.   First of all the really wet pattern started in earnest in my area in late March last year so it is a similar time of year.   More broadly we have been in a persistently troughy pattern during the spring season for the last month.   Last year we had a persistently troughy pattern in the spring season as well... just a little later.   This spring's troughy pattern is far different than last year.  At least so far.   

[Phil]

Andrew is gonna love the 12z EPS.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Andrew is gonna love the 12z EPS.  

Its just the same as the ECMWF run.  

I have learned over the last 8 weeks that the pattern shown below on the EPS in the long range actually means another deep trough over the SW... its been happening over and over again.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

And FWIW, the reason the globe cools during La Niña years is because of increased heat/radiation uptake by the oceans. IE: The system is absorbing more energy. The opposite is true during El Niño. This is confirmed via satellite derived estimates of the radiation budget at the TOA.

If we were to hypothetically remain in an unbroken La Niña for the next 50+ years, the globe would actually warm with time (after any short term cooling at onset), all else being equal. Vice versa for El Niño.

The transition into a more +ENSO dominant state during the late 1200s/early 1300s preceded the LIA cooling trend by at least a century. Meanwhile, as Andrew mentioned, the post-WWII era has been La Niña dominant, and we have observed warming.

Interesting. I am actually fairly agnostic in terms of ENSO and what I "root" for. 2021 was pretty much the opposite of what we would typically expect from a Nina, whereas 2019 was essentially the opposite of what we would expect from a Nino (The late winter spring specifically.). Some of those Ninos in the 1950-1976 time period delivered bigly in the PNW lowlands. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting. I am actually fairly agnostic in terms of ENSO and what I "root" for. 2021 was pretty much the opposite of what we would typically expect from a Nina, whereas 2019 was essentially the opposite of what we would expect from a Nino (The late winter spring specifically.). Some of those Ninos in the 1950-1976 time period delivered bigly in the PNW lowlands. 

I cheer against strong Ninas and strong Ninos... somewhere in the middle tends to produce more enjoyable weather (i.e. variable).

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its just the same as the ECMWF run.  

I have learned over the last 8 weeks that the pattern shown below on the EPS in the long range actually means another deep trough over the SW... it been happening over and over again.    

It’s similar, but not the same. NPAC/GOA, specifically.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will also say I have a ton of work that needs to be done on the property this year. Though I hope the cool pattern continues, I hope we are done with 8" of snow on the ground. Beautiful sunny skies right now, and even though it's very chilly in the upper 30s, it feels nice. Can't get much work done though with 8" of slop on the ground. Sure is pretty though. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s similar, but not the same.

It will very likely be the same as it gets closer.   The blended mean that far out hides the finer details.   Again... this has been the repeating pattern over and over and it looks to continue.    

[Doinko]

I just realized that I can get a Multnomah County library card even as a Washington County resident which gives access to the entire Oregonian archives, so I'm definitely going to spend a lot of time looking a bunch of events. Here's December 1892, when 29" of snow fell in a 6 day period with 24" of that in two days. And then another 30"+ in late January/early February.

 

Full_Page__Oregonian_published_as_Morning_Oregonian.___December_23_1892__p1.pdf

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think this winter is going to look a lot better to people in hindsight. Probably the best so far this Century in the West. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I just realized that I can get a Multnomah County library card even as a Washington County resident which gives access to the entire Oregonian archives, so I'm definitely going to spend a lot of time looking a bunch of events. Here's December 1892, when 29" of snow fell in a 6 day period with 24" of that in two days. And then another 30"+ in late January/early February.

 

Full_Page__Oregonian_published_as_Morning_Oregonian.___December_23_1892__p1.pdf 321.73 kB · 0 downloads

That article is so poetic and colorful... fascinating stuff.   When I am bored I find myself looking for accounts of historical weather around the world.   Yesterday I was reading about the weather in England in the 1500s and 1600s and the first hand narratives of weather events from people living at that time are endlessly interesting to me.

[TT-SEA]

Is this a pattern change in 2 weeks per the EPS?   Believe it when I see it.   Hard to bet against persistence. 

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will also say I have a ton of work that needs to be done on the property this year. Though I hope the cool pattern continues, I hope we are done with 8" of snow on the ground. Beautiful sunny skies right now, and even though it's very chilly in the upper 30s, it feels nice. Can't get much work done though with 8" of slop on the ground. Sure is pretty though. 

We really need snow gone at our place. Impossible to do any work. The one place thats mostly melted is the driveway since it was plowed off and on. SO, i figured i'd load up the quads and get them to the repair shop in Okanogan. I got stuck 100 yards from the house because it was too muddy from the snow bank melt. AYFKM. Took me four hours by myself to pull the trailer, quads, and my car out of that mess with the tractor. It was almost a "come to jesus" event for me. /rant

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like PDX is already up to 50. TBH their performance with this trough has been pretty pathetic numbers wise. Oh well, you win some and you lose SOME. Top 10 cold March looking out of reach for them.

[MossMan]

From snowing to mowing in one day. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

32 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like PDX is already up to 50. TBH their performance with this trough has been pretty pathetic numbers wise. Oh well, you win some and you lose SOME. Top 10 cold March looking out of reach for them.

For those who think that tracking numbers and statistics while rooting for a specific numerical outcome for something we can’t control is a silly waste of time, I present to you the world of professional sports.  

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I was just using Andrew's favorite phrase to say the warm season is approaching.   I am sure it will be pretty nice overall and has to be better than last summer.  

There are no rules and KSEA could spend half of July reaching 90F+. I wouldn't be surprised anymore. Nothing does.