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January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


Requiem

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Kudos to the PDX NWS for at least reporting the potential for snow late Sunday/Monday, nothing from the Seattle NWS:

GFS and ECMWF solutions begin to diverge Sun with a complex upper

pattern developing. Both models have a low from the Gulf of Alaska
dive to CA by Sun afternoon. But the differences are how the models
handle the cold air in northwestern Canada. The 00Z ECMWF is pushing
the cold air much further to the southwest than the GFS. For
example, by 12Z Mon the GFS has 850 mb temps around 0C to -4C over
nw Oregon while the ECMWF shows -8C to -10C. If the ECMWF turns out
there could be enough cold air pouring off the B.C. coast induce
cyclogensis off the WA/OR coast and result in low snow levels,
possibly below 1000` ft. But that is just one model run. Current
forecast is about a blend of the two. /mh

 

Cyclogenesis!

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LoL, saw this on fb this morning...

 

Screenshot_20190129-083658.png

The stupid is strong on both ends of the spectrum apparently.

 

It’s amazing how the most of the “loudest” voices on climate change (Gore, Trump, Bloomberg, and most of the high ranking insitutional talking heads) are not educated *at all* in the physical sciences, let along the intricate thermodynamic and photochemical nuts and bolts that make up our climate system..

 

..Actually, now that I think about it, it makes perfect sense. No well-educated scientist with integrity would peddle a maze of unproven hypotheticals as fact, or deny the laws of physics and reality as we know it. Lol.

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In case anyone is wondering, my “lol global warming” from recent days were not actually serious.

 

I just like to troll self righteous alarmists because they’re such an easy target for it.

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The stupid is strong on both ends of the spectrum apparently.

 

It’s amazing how the most of the “loudest” voices on climate change (Gore, Trump, Bloomberg, and most of the high ranking insitutional talking heads) are not educated *at all* in the physical sciences, let along the intricate thermodynamic and photochemical nuts and bolts that make up our climate system..

 

..Actually, now that I think about it, it makes perfect sense. No well-educated scientist with integrity would peddle a maze of unproven hypotheticals as fact, or deny the laws of physics and reality as we know it. Lol.

But chemtrails and, and, and ummm

 

Flat earth and, umm

 

Planet X

 

**** it, hows the ECMWF looking this morning?

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31* and perfectly still out

 

On a funny note yesterday into late this morning I was tracking the weather ( for a family member)that is currently over Knoxville TN. Anyhow I found a local weather forum for that area that was very active and quite entertaining. They were as bipolar as our forum.

Some got nothing while others a dusting as it was just to warm with the main line of precipitation.

 

 

Snow is a serious business

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Sorry for the OT stuff, but I’m telling you, squirrels have a legitimate predictive intuition. They know the polar vortex is coming..there are several of them digging around frantically, ripping up our chase lounges, etc. I don’t think winter is over here after this.

 

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judt comparing it to its last couple runs

 

 

I was expecting the GFS to latch onto the ECMWF solution... that did not happen.  

 

12Z GEM looks like the 12Z GFS.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sorry for the OT stuff, but I’m telling you, squirrels have a legitimate predictive intuition. They know the polar vortex is coming..there are several of them digging around frantically, ripping up our chase lounges, etc. I don’t think winter is over here after this.

 

 

Rabies.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Omg, that writer needs to be fired.

 

The “warming” in SSW events is a result of compressional heating/pressure rises as the vortex collapses, not warm advection from the south. Lol. In other words, the warming is a result of the PV collapsing (which is triggered by external thermomechanical perturbation).

 

And no, SSW events are not becoming more frequent. Their frequency has remained relatively consistent since we began observing them in the 1950s. And the big cold references in January 2014/February 2015 was not a result of SSW forcing, since no such events occurred during those winters.

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When did “mainstream” newspapers become The Onion?

 

At least in the wx/climate department, almost everything they publish nowadays is complete and utter rubbish. And the other stuff is mostly alarmist computer model projections to the year 2100, with some political zingers and self-righteous virtue signaling thrown in for good measure. What a disgrace.

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Omg, that writer needs to be fired.

The “warming” in SSW events is a result of compressional heating/pressure rises as the vortex collapses, not warm advection from the south. Lol. In other words, the warming is a result of the PV collapsing (which is triggered by external thermomechanical perturbation).

And no, SSW events are not becoming more frequent. Their frequency has remained relatively consistent since we began observing them in the 1950s. And the big cold references in January 2014/February 2015 was not a result of SSW forcing, since no such events occurred during those winters.

 

But, can we agree on

 

“Where the polar vortex goes, so goes the cold air”

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Guest Sounder

In case anyone is wondering, my “lol global warming” from recent days were not actually serious.

 

I just like to troll self righteous alarmists because they’re such an easy target for it.

Just like living at 6,000ft in the Cascades wasn't actually serious?
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Just like living at 6,000ft in the Cascades wasn't actually serious?

Just like wishing death on people’s kids wasn’t actually serious?

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What's wrong with that?

Well, if that’s your fetish, I guess I don’t care as long as it stays in your head.

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