New Year's Storm

[Tom]

On my phone and the 12z EPS is steady as she goes and nearly a carbon copy to last nights 00z snow mean.

[james1976]

On my phone and the 12z EPS is steady as she goes and nearly a carbon copy to last nights 00z snow mean.

Nice. That even threw a few inches my way

[St Paul Storm]

Thermal issues for E WI on the 18z NAM. The low is further west, keeping the warmer air in place. But, it’s the NAM.

[Madtown]

Hard not to get excited that some snow may fall, but sure seems like a really marginal set up.

[Money]

3k nam is a little better up this way but yeah 12k was warm

[bud2380]

18z ICON back to the stronger snowier further NW solution.

[hlcater]

18z ICON back to the stronger snowier further NW solution.

2-4" for much of E IA and WI. Euro and Ukie remain the snowiest. 

[Madtown]

[St Paul Storm]

Yeah Icon back to what it was showing yesterday with the snowier NW solution. E IA and S WI with a nice hit.

[Madtown]

3pm disco from mkx saying trace to maybe 2". Rain snow mix 6:1 to 8:1 snow ratios. snooze fest according to them.

[Money]

18z RGEM looks really phased and north as well

 

998 L just north of STL at 48

 

Euro/Ukie for thé win?

[Money]

RGEM at 51 looks a lot like icon

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018122918&fh=48

[Tom]

18z RGEM looks really phased and north as well

 

998 L just north of STL at 48

 

Euro/Ukie for thé win?

Hopefully that defo band can over perform and cool the air aloft if the dynamics are better. The Euro shows this clearly.

[badgerwx]

Ever since I started following this forum, I find myself second guessing my local WFO...lol

[Money]

Gfs is caving a bit more each run

[james1976]

DMX with a long detailed disco only to say a light glazing of ice and less than an inch of snow. Lol

[St Paul Storm]

Liking the trends here on some of the models, including the GFS. Northern piece able to sneak far enough south to deliver some snow.

[james1976]

Needless to say, offices are not excited about any good snow amounts.

[St Paul Storm]

MPX:

 

Warm air

aloft could result in a mix of sleet/freezing rain and snow near

the onset until the column cools overnight. This could cut down on

snowfall totals a bit initially. The brunt of the precip will

develop late Sunday night with a nice frontogenetically driven

band of snow stretching across central MN. Models are impressive

with QPF, ranging from 0.3 to 0.5 inches. Ensemble members show

good clustering within this range as well. Could see some 6 inch

totals in places. Eventually this band will swing southeast and

bring snow across the rest of the area, particularly Monday and

Monday evening. Amounts in these areas will be ligher.

[Grizzcoat]

DMX with a long detailed disco only to say a light glazing of ice and less than an inch of snow. Lol

I rarely read their AFD's anymore. Their winter forecasting skills as of late have been seriously lacking and warm bias has always been evident. Case in point today's high was supposed to be 27F from the morning forecast, so far it's been only 20F. also ; The WWA that most of C.IA was put in yesterday AM was only issued because of the reports of FZDZ-- not a forecast but a nowcast. THe previous day a SWS was issued for a line of TS's for gusty winds and small hail, which never materialized. I can do better on my own and with the info provided here.

[St Paul Storm]

FV3 caving to the Euro.

[bud2380]

EPS Control very similar to the Euro Op, even slightly more robust with the snow in Iowa.  

 

[Money]

How’s it look in WI? (Euro control)

[bud2380]

How’s it look in WI? (Euro control)

 

very good.

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/wisconsin/m0_snow-depth-in/20190102-1800z.html

[Grizzcoat]

How’s it look in WI? (Euro control)

[Money]

NAM just caved to the euro big time in terms of phasing/precip etc

[Grizzcoat]

really liking the NAM....

[Money]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018123000&fh=48

 

Solid.

[Money]

Nam with nearly 10 inches of snow in eastern WI (lakeshore counties)

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018123000&fh=57&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[Hawkeye]

NAM is so far nw this run that east-central and southeast Iowa get rain while Des Moines gets snow. 

[hlcater]

NAM is so far nw this run that east-central and southeast Iowa get rain while Des Moines gets snow.

It’s also mega amped, which is probably why. 3km NAM is farther SE. 2-4 for our area.

[Money]

Funny thing is 3k is stronger with the low than 12k

[Grizzcoat]

3KM NAM also a good jump to the NW

[hlcater]

Funny thing is 3k is stronger with the low than 12k

I noticed that, but it’s still farther SE and with slightly less QPF in the cold sector. Interesting.

[Grizzcoat]

ICON also with a slight jump W in Iowa.

[Grizzcoat]

Not complaining , you get what you get ; but would be nice if this system were to slow down a little and not be so progressive.

[Grizzcoat]

RGEM also decent for C.IA

[hlcater]

RGEM also decent for C.IA

It’s good for much of IA and WI.

[Money]

Another bump north on the gfs

[St Paul Storm]

Too far east for many of you. Helps allow the northern piece to slide in though. I’d take it.