Tom Posted December 31, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 One can only imagine what this system would have been like if temps were about 5 degrees colder. That radar looks amazing and juiced....nice comma shape look has developed. Oh well, you win some, you loose some. See you back in late Feb. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 32.4 here...hoping it will snow enough to get the ground white for a day or 2. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 One can only imagine what this system would have been like if temps were about 5 degrees colder. That radar looks amazing and juiced....nice comma shape look has developed. Oh well, you win some, you loose some. See you back in late Feb.Yeah, this could have been a nice 4-6" snowfall for many of us. Oh well. At least roads will be in good shape for all the holiday traffic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Should be in the complaint thread....where the hell has winter gone!?!?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 After looking at most models and the way this system is developing, I think from MSN to SBM look to be in the prime spot with this one. Madtown and Money look to be in a good spot, esp when the defo band gets going. Looks like the models wrap it up quite well later tonight. Trends this season are for last minute shifts and this system has those characteristics as the storm deepens moving through the GL's. The dynamics on the Euro and CAM's seem to be pointing to dynamic cooling across S/C WI and into N MI. Here was the 06z Euro run... Guess APX finally likes what the models are showing. Upgrade! Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Gaylord MI1023 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 MIZ018-021>024-026>030-312330-/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0034.181231T2100Z-190101T1200Z//O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0007.181231T2100Z-190101T1200Z/Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Including the cities of Rogers City, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta,Alpena, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, and Harrisville1023 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation early this afternoon...changing toall snow by mid-late afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 6to 9 inches. A glaze of ice is also possible. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions.Expect significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleetand ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. && $ 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 33 and rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 32.4 just brutal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Guess APX finally likes what the models are showing. Upgrade!If only it was just a tad colder...it would have been our WSW as well. Not our Winter buddy. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 32.2 now so I guess the temps aint rising Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 If only it was just a tad colder...it would have been our WSW as well. Not our Winter buddy. That's what was nice about NMI, at least inland away from the coasts, during MET winter it almost never rained. Occasionally you'd get a sleeter, but plain rain was super rare. (Gaylord) what I wouldn't give to see this in my local grid: 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 32°F and rain here in Dubuque. Thermals aloft are the issue now. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 That's what was nice about NMI, at least inland away from the coasts, during MET winter it almost never rained. Occasionally you'd get a sleeter, but plain rain was super rare. (Gaylord) what I wouldn't give to see this in my local grid: 20181231 Gaylord icons.PNGMan, missed those forecast words. Thats how my local grid looked like last year from all those intensified clippers passing on by my area and a few storm systems. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Temp of 34 degrees is keeping everything here so far as rain. Can't complain though, based on radar, should be able get close to, our possibly surpass 3 inches for my December rainfall total. Before today, my December rainfall total was 2.34". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 28F and a few flurries starting here. The precip associated with the northern piece is farther south than modeled. Areas in the winter storm warning north of the twin cities might bust hard. Meanwhile -9F in Fargo. Here comes the blast. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 There's a batch of heavy precip in NW Missouri that looks like it will rotate through into eastern Iowa. If temps are cooled enough by then, it could drop an inch or so of snow as the band looks pretty strong. If it's still rain by the time it gets here though, then that's all she wrote. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Like everyone else is saying..... you know it's bad when you are solidly in the deformation zone on New Year's Eve and it's rain. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Screw the CAMs, I like what the 12z Euro has so I'm just gonna ride that. On a serious note, the HRRR, RAP and Euro drop 3-4" wherever that axis of heavy precip in KS goes. Euro likely has the wrong idea with the size, but if that heavy axis pivots over a given location for awhile, there could be some locally enhanced amounts there. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Snow in Waterloo now. Rain/snow line is one county North of Dubuque atm. 33°F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Screw the CAMs, I like what the 12z Euro has so I'm just gonna ride that. On a serious note, the HRRR, RAP and Euro drop 3-4" wherever that axis of heavy precip in KS goes. Euro likely has the wrong idea with the size, but if that heavy axis pivots over a given location for awhile, there could be some locally enhanced amounts there. That's interesting. The euro says the snow will begin in Cedar Rapids after 2pm, so we'll see how that goes. It's still 34 degrees here in town. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 That's interesting. The euro says the snow will begin in Cedar Rapids after 2pm, so we'll see how that goes. It's still 34 degrees here in town.It's snowing in Marshalltown and Newton. Ptype and snow plow cameras in S IA say that big blob of precip in S IA is switching to snow as well. Obviously to have any shot at the Euro's solution that needs to be snow when it gets here. Either that or a localized band of snow sets up somewhere and pivots as the system departs, there's some historical merit for that. Not entirely sure how those work synoptically, but one of those bands dropped like a foot in SE WI last winter, with that being a proof of concept and in no way a prediction, our system would probably have to be twice as amped for that to realistically be in the cards. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 It's snowing in Marshalltown and Newton. Ptype and snow plow cameras in S IA say that big blob of precip in S IA is switching to snow as well. Obviously to have any shot at the Euro's solution that needs to be snow when it gets here. Either that or a localized band of snow sets up somewhere and pivots as the system departs, there's some historical merit for that. Not entirely sure how those work synoptically, but one of those bands dropped like a foot in SE WI last winter, with that being a proof of concept and in no way a prediction, our system would probably have to be twice as amped for that to realistically be in the cards. Plow cam in between Osceola and Chariton. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 28F and a few flurries starting here. The precip associated with the northern piece is farther south than modeled. Areas in the winter storm warning north of the twin cities might bust hard. Meanwhile -9F in Fargo. Here comes the blast.I must have stolen Tom's magnet... That thin band is absolutely ripping right on top of me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Finally got rid of all the sleet and rain. All nice sized flakes falling now just SW of Des Moines. Hoping to get the ground white at least 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just changed from frz drz to light snow here. 32° 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 I'm not sure what the inspiration behind DVN's WWA this morning was. It was always going to be rain in the morning & the model showing a mix in the morning was obviously BSing. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 r/s line almost here....oh wait...dry slot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 What's the ptype in CR right now? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 So close yet so far away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 What's the ptype in CR right now?rain in Hiawatha. Snow in Vinton per ASOS and plow cams. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Literally the worst https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=225&y=82&site=mkx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=225&map_y=82#.XCp5IqRMGEc 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Rain/sleet mix in Dubuque now. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 There is a bright band just about to move into Cedar Rapids. There must be snow flakes up in the clouds at least. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Finally changed over Heavy snow here 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 There is a bright band just about to move into Cedar Rapids. There must be snow flakes up in the clouds at least.I've got rain and snow mixed here. Not nearly 50/50, more like 80/20. Just a couple of fat flakes mixing in. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Big crash already just west of here Dog and person died Can’t imagine how many crashes there will be later with all the drunk idiots on the road 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 I've got rain and snow mixed here. Not nearly 50/50, more like 80/20. Just a couple of fat flakes mixing in. I am now seeing the first slushy raindrops as well. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 50/50 rain/sleet mix here now. Hoping we can make this all snow by the time the band gets here. 33°F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 Now starting to see some big flakes here. Not total changeover yet, but really close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 I am now seeing the first slushy raindrops as well.Heavy snow. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 31, 2018 Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 All rain in North Liberty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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