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Weather in 2019


Phil

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Dropped to 24*F here the other night. The 21*F at Dulles was the coldest low this early in the season since 1976 when it hit 19*F, IIRC.

 

Another cold shot moves in this week..could be just as cold if not colder.

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First snowflakes of the season today. Precip built back in under CAA, and there was just enough wet bulb potential to pull it off. Gusty too, station registered 40mph while the snow was falling.

 

No accumulation. And no diurnal temp cycle either..should drop into the low/mid 20s tonight and tomorrow night.

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Low of 21* this morning. Clear and sunny now. We had a tiny amt. of sleet, but the sleet and snow went to central and south Texas. A real treat for them. Hill Country is gorgeous in the snow.

 

Looking forward to whether North Texas will see any action on the Thanksgivng break.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Dulles dropped to 17*F with that last cold shot. Not bad.

 

Hit 21*F here. Though I suppose if I relocated my temp/humidity sensor to a better location it might have been closer to 19*F..it’s currently on my porch roof under a pine tree which is pretty sh*tty/not recommended.

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Looks like a zonal flow for a while. Hints of a Rocky Mountain trof 180_240 hrs. Could be in response to mid level cooling. Midwest and High Plains look primed for winter storm. Great Snowpack developing eastern Canada. Great trend for when the rubberband snaps back.

 

GZ_PN_216_0000.gif

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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Looks like a zonal flow for a while. Hints of a Rocky Mountain trof 180_240 hrs. Could be in response to mid level cooling. Midwest and High Plains look primed for winter storm. Great Snowpack developing eastern Canada. Great trend for when the rubberband snaps back.

 

GZ_PN_216_0000.gif

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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Tried to get US Air Force snow depth but it was unavailable. NOAA snow cover illistrates Snowpack. It's allmost primetime folks. 34 days to the Winter Solstice! Sorry I get off the chain folks, it happens every Spring. I live for "primetime."

 

snowNESDISus.gif

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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Looks like a good NE wind in Greenville/Spartanburg. Looks like a bonified South Carolina low. 12Z NAM a little further  SE of BWI. NWS still clinging to warmer solution. Tight gradeant but I think BWI will fall below 40.

 

A good pattern.

 

2019112315_metars_clt.gif

 

 

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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Looks like some cold weather possible in early December..some flakes/mix possible too. Could see temps in the low teens/upper single digits with a hard NW wind if the colder solutions pan out.

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Some more rain tonight in the meantime. Maybe 0.5”-0.8” followed by a breezy day tomorrow..gusts 35-40mph off the mountains as cold/dry air is advected under/just ahead of pressure rises at the peak of the diurnal cycle.

 

FWIW, the Wednesday before Thanksgiving could be really gnarly pending the evolution of that system as it ejects out of the Rockies. Given the -NAO in tandem with the Bermuda High and the depth of that trough over the Rockies..my hunch is there’s gonna be some tight a** pressure gradients with this one. A very anomalous, “combative” situation in the atmosphere.

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Wind is blowing harder than I expected this morning, funneling right through the Cabin John Creek Valley. Topping 40mph as of 9AM.

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Wednesday evening/overnight looks like solid wind advisory criteria along/west of the Fall Line at least. Little precip to stabilize the boundary layer during the day then a heavy pressure surge/CAA regime initiates at sundown +/- 1hr with a non saturated profile in place.

 

Thanksgiving travelers might be in for some white knuckle driving.

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Some intense wind fields being depicted on the HRRR/NAM/GFS for late tonight and tomorrow. The 06z ECMWF was less ridiculous but still has ~ 60kts overhead @ 850mb by 10-11z. If the 12z run bumps up to 65-70kts, LWX would pull the trigger for the I-95 corridor, I’d think.

 

Pressure rises/dry advection occurs overnight behind the cold front, which should cross the I-95 corridor around 00z +/- 1hr.

 

More of a westerly component than a NWerly one initially which might keep the best mixing along/north of a line from Leesburg to Dulles to DCA. But I’m not 100% sure on this.

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Second Winter Storm digs SE 84 to 120 hrs. Transfer and secondary development off DELMARVA seems likely.

 

There may be a few pingers or wet snow to herald in the precip shield Saturday or 0Z Sunday. Thermal profiles need to be monitored.

 

Keep in mind we have a neutral SPO. The hammer drops late.

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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More importantly is the the pressure combined with thermal gradient of the current storm in the Great Lakes. This could produce wind gust of 45-50 mph above 500 ft in Maryland.

 

Back home we called this a wind storm. I always hated them....

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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Roaring like a freight train. Woke us up and our guests are awake too, lol.

 

Looks like 53mph is the peak gust so far on the rooftop anemometer. Secondary pulse likely after sunrise.

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Interesting storm. Some front side mix. BWI Mets have abandoned. The warm guy must have been on the night shift. The back side is more interesting now with a band of rain or snow digging down. NAM and EURO most aggressive. CMC and GFS coming around.

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_084_0000.gif

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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