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1/11 - 1/12 Southern Midwest Snowstorm


Tom

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It seems like its been ages, but models are now converging on a snowstorm developing late this week into the weekend for parts of our southern sub.  I know we don't have many members to our south, but I feel it is worthy of a storm thread for those who want to participate.  

 

Let's discuss....

 

Overnight 00z GEFS are a bit better for even those near the KC region, but I think Clinton is sitting pretty with this one and those in C IL/IN.  Those farther north are riding the northern fringe across IA into N IL/S MI.  Still some time for adjustments N/S and if there will be any Lehs off of Lake Michigan for those near the western shores.  

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If the Ukie is all snow, it puts me in the heavy band south of KC.  I turned down tickets to the Chiefs game Saturday I think I will take the game in from home lol.

Prob a good idea sitting on your comfy couch watching the game on TV and seeing the snow falling outside.  Much better experience IMO.

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Hoping for an unlikely north trend with this storm. Otherwise, it's congrats Clinton  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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How many systems have missed me to the south this year? Geez

A LOT!!!   If it's to the N -- it's too warm and rain even with 540-534 thickness overhead. If it's to the S- the 540 thickness is well S but it still snows where it shoud'nt-- take a look at this MO event and the 1000-500MB thicknesses -- it makes no sense but it does this winter.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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A LOT!!!   If it's to the N -- it's too warm and rain even with 540-534 thickness overhead. If it's to the S- the 540 thickness is well S but it still snows where it shoud'nt-- take a look at this MO event and the 1000-500MB thicknesses -- it makes no sense but it does this winter.

You are right I have never seen so many storms where it snows south of the 540 thickness line, it makes me a little nervous about this system.

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Hoping for an unlikely north trend with this storm. Otherwise, it's congrats Clinton  ;)

Man I wish we could all get in on this, but like Tom has been saying, there is some brutally cold air showing up later this month and into Feb.  I'm thinking it has to snow up there.

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Plenty of time for changes. All depends on the confluence to the north. Will be keeping an close eye on it. Cold air at that time will be locked in place, so this will be a solid snowstorm (no mixing). Whoever gets hit, will receive some good snows.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I don't think we're going to see that nice shift north that many of us would like, but we may squeak out an inch or 2.  The highest single snow event I've had this year has been 1".  I think I'm sitting at around 2.5" for the season and we haven't had any accumulating snow since the end of November I don't think.  I cannot recall any accumulations in December, but it's possible I'm forgetting an event that dropped a 1/2". 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010812/108/snku_acc.us_mw.png

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I don't think we're going to see that nice shift north that many of us would like, but we may squeak out an inch or 2.  The highest single snow event I've had this year has been 1".  I think I'm sitting at around 2.5" for the season and we haven't had any accumulating snow since the end of November I don't think.  I cannot recall any accumulations in December, but it's possible I'm forgetting an event that dropped a 1/2". 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019010812/108/snku_acc.us_mw.png

CMC trending north and stronger as well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=scus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019010812&fh=132

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I'm really excited about the potential for this storm, but trying to not get my hopes up as I'm in St. Joseph, MO, right at the western edge of where all the good stuff seems forecast to begin. We'll see. I'd love to be able to spend a snowy weekend watching the Chiefs with the in-laws, then cheering on my Saints on Sunday! Who Dat! 

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Still time for adjustments w this one. As for now, it is a miss for SMI, but that could change.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This is the weirdest winter ever lol what even. No snow in Minnesota, in January, but Northern Arkansas is about to get buried. Makes sense.

Tell me about it....... :lol: :rolleyes:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'd be more invested in this if it were you happen during the day. A 1" snowfall at night means nothing. If it slowed down or moved North that'd be nice though.

 

Exactly.  It currently looks like midnight to 6am here.  What's the point?

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Exactly.  It currently looks like midnight to 6am here.  What's the point?

 

We had that surprise 1" on the night of 12-29. It was nice to wake up to snow covered ground even if it lasted 1 day.

 

LOL that's all I got for a reason..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yep, NAM's trying to make a real storm outta this. Too early to get excited tho since it's done this with other systems this season only to come back to reality at game time. I'd like to see it regain the skill it had early on. Guess we'll see. More fun than it going dud

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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why not? been so slow..

 

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This run of the NAM looking more like the Nov 25th version without the wind and fits the LRC.  I think the NAM is on the right track, as it has the storm pulling through my area and heading toward Chicago.

 

Hoping that it's actually the first to catch onto a trend vs the first to blow smoke. Wasn't somebody on here from KC told to eat crow cuz said storm wasn't happening? LOLz if he ends up feeding the crow to others.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00Z Euro is N with more precip. Pretty in line with UKMET though it seems the UKIE is a tad S,  but maybe someone can post those maps in the morning.  Warning Snow as far N as very near I-80 in SE IA.  GDR??  Crushes St Louis and points E. Posters in E. NE, Chicago and S.MI do better than previous runs.   This is getting interesting but seems too far N IMO. ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-120-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00Z Euro is N with more precip. Pretty in line with UKMET though it seems the UKIE is a tad S,  but maybe someone can post those maps in the morning.  Warning Snow as far N as very near I-80 in SE IA.  GDR??  Crushes St Louis and points E. Posters in E. NE, Chicago and S.MI do better than previous runs.   This is getting interesting but seems too far N IMO. attachicon.gifecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-120-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png

Its the King so its hard to fight it but yeah idk if I buy it. It's the furthest north but you never know. It gives me a white backyard and that would be amazing after 6 weeks of little to nothing.

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