bud2380 Posted March 6, 2023 Report Share Posted March 6, 2023 This now covers most of the storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 6, 2023 Report Share Posted March 6, 2023 The snow depth change is likely more accurate. Unfortunately, that causes the southern edge totals to drop way down. The latest GFS is south, but it still has the 500 mb low tracking right over me. I need it to track through southern Iowa. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 6, 2023 Report Share Posted March 6, 2023 Canadian is similar, not quite as far south or heavy on amounts, so it's probably a lot more accurate than what the GFS is showing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 6, 2023 Report Share Posted March 6, 2023 Zzzzzzzzz….. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 6, 2023 Report Share Posted March 6, 2023 12z UK... ratios likely lower than this Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 6, 2023 Report Share Posted March 6, 2023 Daytime snow on the Ukie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 6, 2023 Report Share Posted March 6, 2023 The Euro is a hair south again, but the low is much weaker than the GFS. The GFS is likely too amped. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 6, 2023 Report Share Posted March 6, 2023 Local met up here mentioning heavy snow potential thu-fri 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 6, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2023 Down here, I may get some flooding rainfall later this week starting tomorrow. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 6, 2023 Report Share Posted March 6, 2023 7.5" here since last night 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 6, 2023 Report Share Posted March 6, 2023 36 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: GFS trending towards the weaker solution to the surprise of... nobody. It'll get to the Euro/GEM solution eventually, just taking a little longer. Not the sharpest tool in the shed. This has went from a massive winter storm to virtually nothing around here in a couple of days of models. Really hard to have confidence in this model. I’m still waiting for the 50” it had for me. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 verbatim the amounts vary significantly for fremont/omaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 Still holding at 29" on the level 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 DFWs high will drop 21* between Tuesday and Friday. Rain in the forecast for next 2 days. Not at Equinox yet! High of 62* Friday Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 00z GFS... south and weaker, more in line with other models. I'm thinking 2-3" of concrete is most likely here. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 Yikes, the Euro is really weakening this thing. This is 10:1, so we can probably cut these totals in half. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 4 hours ago, Hawkeye said: Yikes, the Euro is really weakening this thing. This is 10:1, so we can probably cut these totals in half. Milwaukee is saying 12:14:1 ratios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 A March glacier in IOWA??? Total for two storm between Thursday and Sunday. Hey KC, take your rain, mid 30's and shove it!!! Tom, the ole Canadian is teasing you, or is it?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 12z RDPS.... continuing the overall weakening and southward trend. This morning's NAM is ridiculously over-wet. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 33 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z NAM nails Iowa. I'm trying not to laugh at the NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 RDPS coming in further south with the cold air now as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 7, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: I'm trying not to laugh at the NAM. GET NAM'ED! Lol 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 GFS snow depth change Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: GFS snow depth change I was hoping for a snow day Friday (my turn to work from home with the kids), but the vast majority of this would fall between 3pm Thursday and 3am Friday. Might not be good enough timing to cancel school Friday. But of course nowadays they cancel school for 1-2", so maybe it will still be good enough. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 The ICON is not impressed with this system. Not even gonna post it, LOL. Too depressing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 GEFS (10:1 so take that into consideration) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 Ukie If the Euro plays a little more ball, we could see some winter storm watches in eastern Iowa. Especially since this looks more like a Thursday event now. Only light lingering snow into Friday for Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 At least all models have brought the snow southward to Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. The trade-off is a weaker system, but that's the way it works. I'm still going with 2-3" of concrete, probably not much more. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: At least all models have brought the snow southward to Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. The trade-off is a weaker system, but that's the way it works. I'm still going with 2-3" of concrete, probably not much more. I wouldn't argue with that, but if the heaviest bands move through just after sunset, it could accumulate a little better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 Still have a signal for steep lapse rates in the DGZ, and the system will be closed off in the low/mid levels. Definitely some favorable factors to work with. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 12z Euro... continues to be the weakest, driest model. Chicago is in a decent spot, but much of Iowa is weak garbage. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 It's laughable how different the GFS and Euro are with their QPF. Track and placement are pretty similar. Thermal profiles too. It's just the Euro is much weaker. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 Weak is where it’s at! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 15 minutes ago, bud2380 said: It's laughable how different the GFS and Euro are with their QPF. Track and placement are pretty similar. Thermal profiles too. It's just the Euro is much weaker. I would certainly bet on the actual precip totals being much closer to the Euro than the GFS. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 Winter Storm Watch issued for Cedar Rapids on north. 3-9" way to narrow it down. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 IAZ040>042-051>054-ILZ001-002-007-080445- /O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0004.230309T1800Z-230310T1500Z/ Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Jo Daviess- Stephenson-Carroll- Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque, Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Galena, Freeport, and Mount Carroll 233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 9 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Illinois and east central and northeast Iowa. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Hawkeye said: 12z Euro... continues to be the weakest, driest model. Chicago is in a decent spot, but much of Iowa is weak garbage. Classic Omadome 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 DVN write up Headlines: Winter storm watch issued for counties in Iowa and Illinois north of Highway 30. This will begin at noon Thursday and end at 9 am Friday. Later shifts may need to adjust these timings. Thursday into Friday: Global models/CAM`s generally in agreement with a significant snowstorm impacting our northern counties. A deepening trough with a closed low tracking across the area will provide strong large-scale forcing. Forecast soundings indicate the entire column saturated including the Dendritic Growth Zone so moderate to heavy snow appears likely in our north. Snow accumulations look to be in the 6 to 10 inch range north of Hwy 30. Farther south to I-80, the forecast gets tricky with the potential for mixed pcpn with several inches of snow and sleet possible, mixed with rain. In our southern counties mostly rain is expected. What is unnerving is the GFS/NAMNEST suggesting the entire cwa going to all snow with amounts of 6+ inches, due to dynamic cooling. These models may be overdoing the cooling process but for later shifts to monitor. If this does pan out then headlines may be needed in more of the cwa. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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