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3/5 to 3/14 - Classic Multi-storm event for the first half of March


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alrighty then..

image.png.26643ef4abadb208c6a19bd19cc0655e.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

alrighty then..

image.png.26643ef4abadb208c6a19bd19cc0655e.png

ugh, why couldn't this be in January or February?  My 4 year old twins are just playing in our yard right now.  So nice out.  Can't wait now they are old enough to just let them go play in the yard all spring/summer!

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Our cloud cover is growing heavier. 
Rain will begin overnight and 2 days of it ahead.  That’s great. Soak it good! 
73 damp degrees.  

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  • Rain 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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18 minutes ago, Andie said:

Our cloud cover is growing heavier. 
Rain will begin overnight and 2 days of it ahead.  That’s great. Soak it good! 
73 damp degrees.  

Same here, except it's in the 50s.

 

And heavy showers knocking on my door.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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18Z Euro  has warning snows where there is no watch and vice versa- looks like the King is caving to the GFS once again---

image.thumb.png.98956249aca46e3d6a019ea0465c34b0.png

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

18Z Euro  has warning snows where there is no watch and vice versa- looks like the King is caving to the GFS once again---

image.thumb.png.98956249aca46e3d6a019ea0465c34b0.png

 

Of course I don't want to see any nasty dry holes around here, but with the storm still two days away I'm sure the qpf details will flop around.

Is that a 10:1 map?

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

alrighty then..

image.png.26643ef4abadb208c6a19bd19cc0655e.png

CPC/WPC has indeed trended S here. Pretty sure I've never seen one of their maps like this b4. Like somebody said "why don't you just circle The Mitt? k, yeah, just like that, that's good" lol

1674436674_23-03-07CPCHazardsd3-7.thumb.png.d58e71ea4cbb882697cf9f5d80482bb6.png47631708_23-03-06CPCHazardsd3-7.thumb.png.b590d53970716e30c11af6fb33f866e1.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep.

1F7EBB8B-DF93-44A0-83BD-4642345A27D9.jpeg

OUCH! for OMA. Sure is robust for Iowa tho

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRR fairly bullish on the two events in the pipeline:

 

AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
657 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023

- Possible Impacts with the Storm Thu Night to Friday

A mid level wave digs into the Great Lakes region during this time
generating stronger lift.  This lift shown to be in the DGZ and
peaks Thursday night into Friday morning.The upper jet has a
coupled look to it. This system will tap into some moisture from
the Gulf with PWAT values rising to above normal values. Models
are in relative agreement on this scenario. The models also show
some 700 mb FGEN...but vary considerably with the strength of it.
The GFS has the strongest look. Forecast soundings support snow as
the precipitation type. Mean ensemble snow forecasts are
supporting accumulating snow and an increased risk for impacts
especially for the Friday morning commute for much of the CWA.
Road temperatures will also the be coldest at this time of the
day. However there is still a lot of spread and the system has
been trending slightly quicker. Our forecasts will continue to
support a widespread snowfall event with an increased risk for
impacts. Most scenarios keep the region under warning
criteria...but trends going forward will need to be monitored
closely.

- Another storm system for Sunday night into Monday

A mid level low is shown to track in from the west northwest
Sunday night into Monday. Models are spread out on the timing and
strength of this feature...but they all have a signal there. This
will be another cold system...so mainly snow would be
expected. The moisture looks deep with this system...through 600
mb where temps are shown to be unusually cold at -30 deg C.
Moisture from Lake MI may also enhance this system with 850 mb
temperature dipping down colder than -10 deg C. The low level flow
is convergent on the backside of this system which would also
enhance the low level lift. Impacts appear possible from this
system
  • Snow 1
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00z NAM/3kNAM.... The 3k, in particular, has come way down with snow totals in Iowa compared to the last two runs.  Multiple models have teased a relative dry pocket over Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.

image.thumb.png.8737874ae011bc9349959da05024b012.png

image.thumb.png.235342058158657df315637097ef2106.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Absolutely shithousery from Des Moines on the discussion.  Don't even want to post it, but they should be ashamed of their lack of interest/details/analysis.  More than half the posters here could post something way better than that discussion.  I hope they read this, and respond. What a joke. For a so called detailed discussion,  it lacked both details and discussion.  Another government job where they get no reprimand for absolute bare minimum done.

  Rant over. Hope Des Moines gets pounded all weekend long, not for my love of snow, but for them to feel ashamed for their lack of details.  They did update the grids this AM. For RAIN. And Rain only.  The grass is white and has been snowing for hours. Okay, now rant over!

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10 minutes ago, ToastedRavs said:

Absolutely shithousery from Des Moines on the discussion.  Don't even want to post it, but they should be ashamed of their lack of interest/details/analysis.  More than half the posters here could post something way better than that discussion.  I hope they read this, and respond. What a joke. For a so called detailed discussion,  it lacked both details and discussion.  Another government job where they get no reprimand for absolute bare minimum done.

  Rant over. Hope Des Moines gets pounded all weekend long, not for my love of snow, but for them to feel ashamed for their lack of details.  They did update the grids this AM. For RAIN. And Rain only.  The grass is white and has been snowing for hours. Okay, now rant over!

Most of us on this forum are biased. I get it. It's a winter weather forum for the most part and few (if any us are professional forecasters ) but- for the  NWS DMX to continue the warm bias in headlines simply amazes me along with the lack of detail in the AFD.  Fine if NWX DMX wants to go with what they are ( they are pro's after all) but a simple discount (and the  why's and why nots) would be appreciated. For being pros' -- they should be held accountable to say - at the very least- why the US  main Domestic model, is apparently so far off at 36  hrs out and ensemble at that.   Would like to hear a little more nuts/bolts -- but not from DMX at least this time around (most of the time).   Compared to other CWA's AFD's over the years- DMX in the winter is usually seriously lacking (especially in the shoulder seasons).  Rant over. Agree with Toasted...

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Most of us on this forum are biased. I get it. It's a winter weather forum for the most part and few (if any us are professional forecasters ) but- for the  NWS DMX to continue the warm bias in headlines simply amazes me along with the lack of detail in the AFD.  Fine if NWX DMX wants to go with what they are ( they are pro's after all) but a simple discount (and the  why's and why nots) would be appreciated. For being pros' -- they should be held accountable to say - at the very least- why the US  main Domestic model, is apparently so far off at 36  hrs out and ensemble at that.   Would like to hear a little more nuts/bolts -- but not from DMX at least this time around (most of the time).   Compared to other CWA's AFD's over the years- DMX in the winter is usually seriously lacking (especially in the shoulder seasons).  Rant over. Agree with Toasted...

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_mw.png

They're probably all too busy geeking out (not what I want to say but that's the PG version) for the Central Iowa NWA conference coming up. I took a quick look at La crosse and Quad Cities, that's all I want is some details in the discussion.  And Des Moines took til 421AM to write that crap? Come on! 

  I call in my severe reports when I am chasing, but damnit they are becoming so annoying I really don't want to help them out. But, I will, because it's not about them I suppose. 

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To my fellow Chicagoans and N IL posters, I left my "snow magnet" back home...hope you guys get a good amount of snow this weekend.  I told my best fried who's been living temporarily out in W IL in a small town just outside of Uttica, IL, to prepare for a cold and snowy period for MAR standards.  Looks like that is on the horizon and for many of you in the MW/GL's region.

 

0z Euro...through St Patty's weekend...

image.png

 

0z Euro Control...

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The GFS, often referred to as garbage on here has actually done some pretty good forecasting inside 4 days this winter. Looks like its going to score another victory with this snow event.

I agree with some, it seems that the WSW's are out of place. Tough to call this time of year, going to have to snow hard in these areas that see it during the day tomorrow. ITS MARCH!!

Good luck to the folks that get these last few snows, I sure wish KC could see one last snow. KC is king of rain storms this winter. #10 rain storm happened last night. #11 is on its way tomorrow. I blame Clinton!!! (LOL) I'm over 9 inches of rain since Dec. 1st. WOW!

 

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10 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

The GFS, often referred to as garbage on here has actually done some pretty good forecasting inside 4 days this winter. Looks like its going to score another victory with this snow event.

I agree with some, it seems that the WSW's are out of place. Tough to call this time of year, going to have to snow hard in these areas that see it during the day tomorrow. ITS MARCH!!

Good luck to the folks that get these last few snows, I sure wish KC could see one last snow. KC is king of rain storms this winter. #10 rain storm happened last night. #11 is on its way tomorrow. I blame Clinton!!! (LOL) I'm over 9 inches of rain since Dec. 1st. WOW!

 

Look on the bright side, at least there is a ZERO chance of a drought this summer.  I don't see anyone on here from the MW/GL's complaining later this year.  Should be a great year for your landscape business.  Hopefully it won't be TOO much of a good thing.

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25 minutes ago, Tom said:

Look on the bright side, at least there is a ZERO chance of a drought this summer.  I don't see anyone on here from the MW/GL's complaining later this year.  Should be a great year for your landscape business.  Hopefully it won't be TOO much of a good thing.

I think I agree, should be a wet growing season. You're right, TOO much of a good thing can hurt business. 

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32 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

I think I agree, should be a wet growing season. You're right, TOO much of a good thing can hurt business. 

Its been a crazy to see how continuous  changes in precipitation  have molded my business  here. 2008 to 2011 was incredibly  wet much of the year (77" near me in 2010). Then since 2012 many summers  either on the drought monitor  constantly  or periodically  especially  july to sept. Theres virtually  0% sprinkler systems  here. In 2017 the May 15th to Sept 15th drought  made me so upset  I researched  data around the heartland going  back to 1800s. What I discovered  was north mo, south iowa, west  Illinois  all have crazy wild swings in precipitation much more drastic  than areas south, north and east of Ottumwa.  In the 2017 timeframe i recorded 15 straight months with just 1 rain over 1 inch!!! So we decided  to restructure  the business  focusing on commercial  snow accounts and some other things  rather than primarily  residential  lawn care. That plan has worked out well. During Jan and Feb light snows are almost a lock here and we have almost continuously  broke gross revenue records monthly and yearly since 2018. And the first time since 2008 I honestly  feel the business  is almost "weatherproof".. terrible  swings in precipitation  will still affect our bottom  line but we take what comes. 

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15 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep.

1F7EBB8B-DF93-44A0-83BD-4642345A27D9.jpeg

Your call of 2" of snow total for the month of March (in Omaha) looks dead on right now... this "amazing" pattern continues to deliver for us, doesn't it. Regular March snowstorms in Eastern Nebraska seem to be a thing of the past...

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