bud2380 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 18z NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 alrighty then.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 18z NAM NAM putting out some crazy numbers there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, jaster220 said: alrighty then.. ugh, why couldn't this be in January or February? My 4 year old twins are just playing in our yard right now. So nice out. Can't wait now they are old enough to just let them go play in the yard all spring/summer! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 18Z GEFS-- 10:1 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 Our cloud cover is growing heavier. Rain will begin overnight and 2 days of it ahead. That’s great. Soak it good! 73 damp degrees. 1 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 7, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 18 minutes ago, Andie said: Our cloud cover is growing heavier. Rain will begin overnight and 2 days of it ahead. That’s great. Soak it good! 73 damp degrees. Same here, except it's in the 50s. And heavy showers knocking on my door. 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 RAP now in range-- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 18Z Euro has warning snows where there is no watch and vice versa- looks like the King is caving to the GFS once again--- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: 18Z Euro has warning snows where there is no watch and vice versa- looks like the King is caving to the GFS once again--- Of course I don't want to see any nasty dry holes around here, but with the storm still two days away I'm sure the qpf details will flop around. Is that a 10:1 map? Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 hours ago, jaster220 said: alrighty then.. CPC/WPC has indeed trended S here. Pretty sure I've never seen one of their maps like this b4. Like somebody said "why don't you just circle The Mitt? k, yeah, just like that, that's good" lol 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 Yep. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Yep. OUCH! for OMA. Sure is robust for Iowa tho 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 00z HRRR... Not very reliable at this distance from the event. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 GRR fairly bullish on the two events in the pipeline: AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 657 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023 - Possible Impacts with the Storm Thu Night to Friday A mid level wave digs into the Great Lakes region during this time generating stronger lift. This lift shown to be in the DGZ and peaks Thursday night into Friday morning.The upper jet has a coupled look to it. This system will tap into some moisture from the Gulf with PWAT values rising to above normal values. Models are in relative agreement on this scenario. The models also show some 700 mb FGEN...but vary considerably with the strength of it. The GFS has the strongest look. Forecast soundings support snow as the precipitation type. Mean ensemble snow forecasts are supporting accumulating snow and an increased risk for impacts especially for the Friday morning commute for much of the CWA. Road temperatures will also the be coldest at this time of the day. However there is still a lot of spread and the system has been trending slightly quicker. Our forecasts will continue to support a widespread snowfall event with an increased risk for impacts. Most scenarios keep the region under warning criteria...but trends going forward will need to be monitored closely. - Another storm system for Sunday night into Monday A mid level low is shown to track in from the west northwest Sunday night into Monday. Models are spread out on the timing and strength of this feature...but they all have a signal there. This will be another cold system...so mainly snow would be expected. The moisture looks deep with this system...through 600 mb where temps are shown to be unusually cold at -30 deg C. Moisture from Lake MI may also enhance this system with 850 mb temperature dipping down colder than -10 deg C. The low level flow is convergent on the backside of this system which would also enhance the low level lift. Impacts appear possible from this system 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 00z NAM/3kNAM.... The 3k, in particular, has come way down with snow totals in Iowa compared to the last two runs. Multiple models have teased a relative dry pocket over Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 Winter storm watch less than 48 hours away and the forecast is 3-9” lmao.. I mean I get it, it’s just funny to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 00Z GFS-- 3"+ for DSM is overnight tonight which is unlikely. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 Nice.. model spread from 0" to 9.8"in Ottumwa Iowa. So tired of this all winter. Tough to run a business here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 GEFS- 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 Euro Kuchera 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 Absolutely shithousery from Des Moines on the discussion. Don't even want to post it, but they should be ashamed of their lack of interest/details/analysis. More than half the posters here could post something way better than that discussion. I hope they read this, and respond. What a joke. For a so called detailed discussion, it lacked both details and discussion. Another government job where they get no reprimand for absolute bare minimum done. Rant over. Hope Des Moines gets pounded all weekend long, not for my love of snow, but for them to feel ashamed for their lack of details. They did update the grids this AM. For RAIN. And Rain only. The grass is white and has been snowing for hours. Okay, now rant over! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, ToastedRavs said: Absolutely shithousery from Des Moines on the discussion. Don't even want to post it, but they should be ashamed of their lack of interest/details/analysis. More than half the posters here could post something way better than that discussion. I hope they read this, and respond. What a joke. For a so called detailed discussion, it lacked both details and discussion. Another government job where they get no reprimand for absolute bare minimum done. Rant over. Hope Des Moines gets pounded all weekend long, not for my love of snow, but for them to feel ashamed for their lack of details. They did update the grids this AM. For RAIN. And Rain only. The grass is white and has been snowing for hours. Okay, now rant over! Most of us on this forum are biased. I get it. It's a winter weather forum for the most part and few (if any us are professional forecasters ) but- for the NWS DMX to continue the warm bias in headlines simply amazes me along with the lack of detail in the AFD. Fine if NWX DMX wants to go with what they are ( they are pro's after all) but a simple discount (and the why's and why nots) would be appreciated. For being pros' -- they should be held accountable to say - at the very least- why the US main Domestic model, is apparently so far off at 36 hrs out and ensemble at that. Would like to hear a little more nuts/bolts -- but not from DMX at least this time around (most of the time). Compared to other CWA's AFD's over the years- DMX in the winter is usually seriously lacking (especially in the shoulder seasons). Rant over. Agree with Toasted... 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Most of us on this forum are biased. I get it. It's a winter weather forum for the most part and few (if any us are professional forecasters ) but- for the NWS DMX to continue the warm bias in headlines simply amazes me along with the lack of detail in the AFD. Fine if NWX DMX wants to go with what they are ( they are pro's after all) but a simple discount (and the why's and why nots) would be appreciated. For being pros' -- they should be held accountable to say - at the very least- why the US main Domestic model, is apparently so far off at 36 hrs out and ensemble at that. Would like to hear a little more nuts/bolts -- but not from DMX at least this time around (most of the time). Compared to other CWA's AFD's over the years- DMX in the winter is usually seriously lacking (especially in the shoulder seasons). Rant over. Agree with Toasted... They're probably all too busy geeking out (not what I want to say but that's the PG version) for the Central Iowa NWA conference coming up. I took a quick look at La crosse and Quad Cities, that's all I want is some details in the discussion. And Des Moines took til 421AM to write that crap? Come on! I call in my severe reports when I am chasing, but damnit they are becoming so annoying I really don't want to help them out. But, I will, because it's not about them I suppose. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, GDR said: Latest gfs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 To my fellow Chicagoans and N IL posters, I left my "snow magnet" back home...hope you guys get a good amount of snow this weekend. I told my best fried who's been living temporarily out in W IL in a small town just outside of Uttica, IL, to prepare for a cold and snowy period for MAR standards. Looks like that is on the horizon and for many of you in the MW/GL's region. 0z Euro...through St Patty's weekend... 0z Euro Control... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 0z EPS...LOT may extend those WSW's farther south if these trends continue for the 12z runs...this is for both systems... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 06z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 The GFS, often referred to as garbage on here has actually done some pretty good forecasting inside 4 days this winter. Looks like its going to score another victory with this snow event. I agree with some, it seems that the WSW's are out of place. Tough to call this time of year, going to have to snow hard in these areas that see it during the day tomorrow. ITS MARCH!! Good luck to the folks that get these last few snows, I sure wish KC could see one last snow. KC is king of rain storms this winter. #10 rain storm happened last night. #11 is on its way tomorrow. I blame Clinton!!! (LOL) I'm over 9 inches of rain since Dec. 1st. WOW! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: The GFS, often referred to as garbage on here has actually done some pretty good forecasting inside 4 days this winter. Looks like its going to score another victory with this snow event. I agree with some, it seems that the WSW's are out of place. Tough to call this time of year, going to have to snow hard in these areas that see it during the day tomorrow. ITS MARCH!! Good luck to the folks that get these last few snows, I sure wish KC could see one last snow. KC is king of rain storms this winter. #10 rain storm happened last night. #11 is on its way tomorrow. I blame Clinton!!! (LOL) I'm over 9 inches of rain since Dec. 1st. WOW! Look on the bright side, at least there is a ZERO chance of a drought this summer. I don't see anyone on here from the MW/GL's complaining later this year. Should be a great year for your landscape business. Hopefully it won't be TOO much of a good thing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 25 minutes ago, Tom said: Look on the bright side, at least there is a ZERO chance of a drought this summer. I don't see anyone on here from the MW/GL's complaining later this year. Should be a great year for your landscape business. Hopefully it won't be TOO much of a good thing. I think I agree, should be a wet growing season. You're right, TOO much of a good thing can hurt business. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 32 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: I think I agree, should be a wet growing season. You're right, TOO much of a good thing can hurt business. Its been a crazy to see how continuous changes in precipitation have molded my business here. 2008 to 2011 was incredibly wet much of the year (77" near me in 2010). Then since 2012 many summers either on the drought monitor constantly or periodically especially july to sept. Theres virtually 0% sprinkler systems here. In 2017 the May 15th to Sept 15th drought made me so upset I researched data around the heartland going back to 1800s. What I discovered was north mo, south iowa, west Illinois all have crazy wild swings in precipitation much more drastic than areas south, north and east of Ottumwa. In the 2017 timeframe i recorded 15 straight months with just 1 rain over 1 inch!!! So we decided to restructure the business focusing on commercial snow accounts and some other things rather than primarily residential lawn care. That plan has worked out well. During Jan and Feb light snows are almost a lock here and we have almost continuously broke gross revenue records monthly and yearly since 2018. And the first time since 2008 I honestly feel the business is almost "weatherproof".. terrible swings in precipitation will still affect our bottom line but we take what comes. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 NAM increased totals a little from 00z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 3k NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 I'm still going with about 3" here. 12z RDPS.... yikes 12z HRRR Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 15 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Yep. Your call of 2" of snow total for the month of March (in Omaha) looks dead on right now... this "amazing" pattern continues to deliver for us, doesn't it. Regular March snowstorms in Eastern Nebraska seem to be a thing of the past... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 16 hours ago, jaster220 said: CPC/WPC has indeed trended S here. Pretty sure I've never seen one of their maps like this b4. Like somebody said "why don't you just circle The Mitt? k, yeah, just like that, that's good" lol @jaster220bringing the food NMI vibes. Sweet! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 15z RAP.... wtf? 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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