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3/5 to 3/14 - Classic Multi-storm event for the first half of March


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DMX discussion basically saying SE warm flow will have much of S.IA rain. They even acknowledge 18Z model suite trending colder/snowier but basically not going with it. They basically have no model support- will be interesting.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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14 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

DMX discussion basically saying SE warm flow will have much of S.IA rain. They even acknowledge 18Z model suite trending colder/snowier but basically not going with it. They basically have no model support- will be interesting.

I have seen similar SE warm flows destroy multiple snow forecasts here locally this Winter season, so I can see why DMX is going conservative here. These kind of setups rarely work out in favor for decent snows, well at least in Eastern Nebraska recently. 

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Total 5.2" here in DTW Metro area. Season snowfall now is 34.2." A lot of melting though has occurred. That March sun angle can really do its job this time of the year.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nothing to see here....oh, just another Blizzard Warning for the Upper MW...how many has this been?  #5,6,7...???  #FargoBlitz

Quote

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
223 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023

NDZ008-016-027-029-030-121800-
/O.UPG.KFGF.WS.A.0004.230312T0600Z-230312T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KFGF.WW.Y.0016.230312T0600Z-230312T1800Z/
/O.CON.KFGF.BZ.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230312T0600Z/
Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Steele-Traill-
Including the cities of Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina,
Neche, St. Thomas, Grafton, Park River, Grand Forks, Finley,
Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, and Portland
223 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT TO
1 PM CDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions. Winds
  gusting as high as 45 mph. For the Winter Weather Advisory,
  snow expected. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 11 inches.

* WHERE...Pembina, Eastern Walsh, Grand Forks, Steele and Traill
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Blizzard Warning, until midnight CST tonight.
  For the Winter Weather Advisory, from midnight CST tonight to
  1 PM CDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The lowest visibilities will occur with
  heavy snowfall rates this morning. There will be a lull in
  impacts this afternoon and evening before northerly winds
  increase overnight tonight. Additional hazardous travel
  conditions are expected due to blowing snow Sunday morning as a
  result.

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

ORD picked up a whopping 1.2" bringing the season total to....19.1"!  Another stat padder in the books.

I am surprised Detroit has gotten to almost 35.0"up to now. That was a big jump tbh. That is why ya never know what Ma Nature can do. If we get another snow event or 2, then, we might even (MAYBEEEE) go above to near average snowfall. Now, that would be something.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

I am surprised Detroit has gotten to almost near seasonal levels up to now. That was a big jump tbh. That is why ya never know what Ma Nature can do. If we get another snow event or 2, then, we might even (MAYBEEEE) go above to near average snowfall. Now, that would be something.

It ain’t ova till Mother Nature says so…I think there are 2-3 more coming down the piper.

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The next system is about to move in, and btw, I kind of forgot to post my final storm amounts from the previous system. I never measured more than 4" of snow on my boards so that's what I went with even though some spots measured more, and others less too. Liquid equivalent was nuts and quite a bit more than any reports, so....? Two identical gauges had around 0.80" and two other 4" diameter cocorahs style gauges had around 0.95"! Those 4 gauges were out in the open wind leaning toward the wind approximately 20⁰ to 30° from vertical or 60⁰ to 70⁰ from level. The inner tube and cap were removed from the 4" dia. gauges as required for snow collection so it basically was like a leaning straight sided deep can at least 3' above the ground and no blowing snow occurred or entered so unless the inner tube wasn't calibrated accurately, this should be accurate. And just for additional confirmation and curiosity I took 2 core samples, but not till the following morning (after it settled and melted some) and those yielded nearly 0.70" from barely 4" snow depth. So it definitely was a juicy snow! I don't trust the cores this time because of some thawing. 

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37 minutes ago, Sparky said:

The next system is about to move in, and btw, I kind of forgot to post my final storm amounts from the previous system. I never measured more than 4" of snow on my boards so that's what I went with even though some spots measured more, and others less too. Liquid equivalent was nuts and quite a bit more than any reports, so....? Two identical gauges had around 0.80" and two other 4" diameter cocorahs style gauges had around 0.95"! Those 4 gauges were out in the open wind leaning toward the wind approximately 20⁰ to 30° from vertical or 60⁰ to 70⁰ from level. The inner tube and cap were removed from the 4" dia. gauges as required for snow collection so it basically was like a leaning straight sided deep can at least 3' above the ground and no blowing snow occurred or entered so unless the inner tube wasn't calibrated accurately, this should be accurate. And just for additional confirmation and curiosity I took 2 core samples, but not till the following morning (after it settled and melted some) and those yielded nearly 0.70" from barely 4" snow depth. So it definitely was a juicy snow! I don't trust the cores this time because of some thawing. 

I had .39 melted from 1.5" snow and small amt of sleet! Just a small amount of rain.

Thats a 3.8 to 1 ratio!

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56 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Pushing 4" of unforeseen snow 24 hours ago from NWS.

 

PXL_20230311_200214173.jpg

Not complaining since it's almost mid-March and I am ready for spring, however it really is comedic how this same exact band of precipitation fell as rain, freezing rain, and sleet here in Omaha this morning, however Des Moines (150 miles to the east) ends up with their second decent snowfall of the week today.

Continues to be the story of the season as we sit around 12" of snow total for the year (a foot below average). 

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There'e a 5.8" report west of Des Moines.  I don't think much of this heavy precip area will make it to Cedar Rapids.  All models show it drying up.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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DMX totally missed the forecast on this one.   Not even an advisory.   Im by Windsor Heights, IA basically Des moines and have a solid 5 inches of VERY heavy snow.   Thats in 3 hours.  Probably one of the heaviest snowfalls I've seen and I've seen a lot.   Vehicles not getting around very well and many accident reports.

Its also been over 32 the entire time.   Be crazy if it was a degree cooler.

PS.  Even if I rotate the picture on my end it still displays upside down. Makes no sense.

March2023FreakSnowStorm.jpg

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I just drove from Waukee to DSM Airport. Easily the worst roads in years. Can verify that WDM 5.8" report. Have some videos of my drive in of accidents -- some happening. But expletives will keep that one from being seen.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

I just drove from Waukee to DSM Airport. Easily the worst roads in years. Can verify that WDM 5.8" report. Have some videos of my drive in of accidents -- some happening. But expletives will keep that one from being seen.

I have to agree and its still coming down hard.

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Screenshot of video with several four letter words I can't share. Road is blocked up the hill... Some people..... For DSM peeps -- this Park and Mckinely

Screenshot_20230311-162524.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Afternoon DMX discussion 2 days ago-- models were showing exactly what has transpired -- maybe even a little underdone. 

Ridging will persist Friday with continued northwest flow holding
high temperatures to a neutral change. A system will emerge into the
Northern Plains on Saturday. A separate low in the Central Plains
will churn stronger winds out of the southeast for Iowa, boosting
moisture advection and prompting precipitation. The southern half
of the area will see predominantly rain at this time with a
mixture of snow possible in the first half of the day, but the
ground will be warm enough to limit accumulations. Highest totals
are expected in portions of northern and northeastern Iowa and are
near advisory criteria. The GEFS solution remains hotter than the
EC, but am more confident in the lower solution given the outcome
of Thursday`s system.

TOO THIS AFTER THE FACT-

Snow continues across central Iowa this afternoon, originally
driven by kinematic support trailing the potent Dakotas upper low,
with contributions from other weaker waves moving across KS into
the MO Valley. Snowfall rates really got going early afternoon
however when the baroclinic zone and associated moisture and theta-e
advection associated with the Plains impulses lifted into the
state. This forcing mechanism, along with higher vertical motion
and super-saturation with respect to ice along and either side of
the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) was efficient at producing
aggregated dendrites even if its depth was nothing out of the
ordinary. At first glance it appeared that 40+ dBz reflectivity
was bright-banding as it lifted into the metro, but examination
of companion ZDR and CC dual-pol data showed the melting layer was
not that aggressive to the north, making those reflectivity
values notable. These high reflectivities seem to be fading a bit
however, with the likely highest accumulations expected from the
DSM metro and central IA just to the north and east.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Bands keep redeveloping right over E Dallas and W Polk Cty in C.IA. 5.9" at KDSM at 6pm.

Gonna make a run at 7" and some places in Dallas probably 9"+

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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