3/5 to 3/14 - Classic Multi-storm event for the first half of March

[CentralNebWeather]

36 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

GFS trending towards the weaker solution to the surprise of... nobody.

It'll get to the Euro/GEM solution eventually, just taking a little longer. Not the sharpest tool in the shed.

This has went from a massive winter storm to virtually nothing around here in a couple of days of models. Really hard to have confidence in this model. I’m still waiting for the 50” it had for me.

[jcwxguy]

verbatim the amounts vary significantly for fremont/omaha 

[Madtown]

Still holding at 29" on the level

[Andie]

DFWs high will drop 21* between Tuesday and Friday.  Rain in the forecast for next 2 days.  
Not at Equinox yet! 
 

High of 62* Friday 

[Money]

NAM 

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS... south and weaker, more in line with other models.

I'm thinking 2-3" of concrete is most likely here.

 

[Hawkeye]

Yikes, the Euro is really weakening this thing.

This is 10:1, so we can probably cut these totals in half.

[Money]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Yikes, the Euro is really weakening this thing.

This is 10:1, so we can probably cut these totals in half.

Milwaukee is saying 12:14:1 ratios 

[MIKEKC]

A March glacier in IOWA??? Total for two storm between Thursday and Sunday. 

Hey KC, take your rain, mid 30's and shove it!!! 

Tom, the ole Canadian is teasing you, or is it??

[Hawkeye]

12z RDPS.... continuing the overall weakening and southward trend.

This morning's NAM is ridiculously over-wet.

[bud2380]

33 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z NAM nails Iowa.

I'm trying not to laugh at the NAM.  

[bud2380]

RDPS coming in further south with the cold air now as well.

 

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

I'm trying not to laugh at the NAM.  

GET NAM'ED! Lol

[bud2380]

GFS

[Hawkeye]

GFS snow depth change

[bud2380]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

GFS snow depth change

I was hoping for a snow day Friday (my turn to work from home with the kids), but the vast majority of this would fall between 3pm Thursday and 3am Friday.  Might not be good enough timing to cancel school Friday.  But of course nowadays they cancel school for 1-2", so maybe it will still be good enough. 

[bud2380]

The ICON is not impressed with this system.  Not even gonna post it, LOL.  Too depressing. 

[bud2380]

GEFS (10:1 so take that into consideration)

 

[bud2380]

Ukie

If the Euro plays a little more ball, we could see some winter storm watches in eastern Iowa.  Especially since this looks more like a Thursday event now.  Only light lingering snow into Friday for Iowa.  

 

[Hawkeye]

At least all models have brought the snow southward to Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  The trade-off is a weaker system, but that's the way it works.  I'm still going with 2-3" of concrete, probably not much more.

[bud2380]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

At least all models have brought the snow southward to Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.  The trade-off is a weaker system, but that's the way it works.  I'm still going with 2-3" of concrete, probably not much more.

I wouldn't argue with that, but if the heaviest bands move through just after sunset, it could accumulate a little better.  

[Hoosier]

Still have a signal for steep lapse rates in the DGZ, and the system will be closed off in the low/mid levels.  Definitely some favorable factors to work with.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro... continues to be the weakest, driest model.  Chicago is in a decent spot, but much of Iowa is weak garbage.

 

[bud2380]

It's laughable how different the GFS and Euro are with their QPF.  Track and placement are pretty similar.  Thermal profiles too.  It's just the Euro is much weaker.  

 

 

[GDR]

Weak is where it’s at!

[Hawkeye]

15 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

It's laughable how different the GFS and Euro are with their QPF.  Track and placement are pretty similar.  Thermal profiles too.  It's just the Euro is much weaker.  

I would certainly bet on the actual precip totals being much closer to the Euro than the GFS.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[bud2380]

Winter Storm Watch issued for Cedar Rapids on north. 3-9" way to narrow it down. 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-ILZ001-002-007-080445-
/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0004.230309T1800Z-230310T1500Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Jo Daviess-
Stephenson-Carroll-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque,
Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Galena, Freeport,
and Mount Carroll
233 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 9
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Illinois and east central and
  northeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

[FarmerRick]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

12z Euro... continues to be the weakest, driest model.  Chicago is in a decent spot, but much of Iowa is weak garbage.

 

Classic Omadome 

[bud2380]

DVN write up

 

Headlines: Winter storm watch issued for counties in Iowa and
Illinois north of Highway 30. This will begin at noon Thursday and
end at 9 am Friday. Later shifts may need to adjust these timings.

Thursday into Friday: Global models/CAM`s generally in agreement
with a significant snowstorm impacting our northern counties. A
deepening trough with a closed low tracking across the area will
provide strong large-scale forcing. Forecast soundings indicate the
entire column saturated including the Dendritic Growth Zone so
moderate to heavy snow appears likely in our north. Snow
accumulations look to be in the 6 to 10 inch range north of Hwy 30.
Farther south to I-80, the forecast gets tricky with the
potential for mixed pcpn with several inches of snow and sleet
possible, mixed with rain. In our southern counties mostly rain is
expected. What is unnerving is the GFS/NAMNEST suggesting the
entire cwa going to all snow with amounts of 6+ inches, due to
dynamic cooling. These models may be overdoing the cooling process
but for later shifts to monitor. If this does pan out then
headlines may be needed in more of the cwa.

[bud2380]

18z NAM

 

[jaster220]

alrighty then..

[Tony]

14 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

18z NAM

 

NAM putting out some crazy numbers there.

[bud2380]

GFS

 

[tStacsh]

14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

alrighty then..

ugh, why couldn't this be in January or February?  My 4 year old twins are just playing in our yard right now.  So nice out.  Can't wait now they are old enough to just let them go play in the yard all spring/summer!

[Grizzcoat]

18Z GEFS-- 10:1

[Andie]

Our cloud cover is growing heavier. 
Rain will begin overnight and 2 days of it ahead.  That’s great. Soak it good! 
73 damp degrees.  

[Iceresistance]

18 minutes ago, Andie said:

Our cloud cover is growing heavier. 
Rain will begin overnight and 2 days of it ahead.  That’s great. Soak it good! 
73 damp degrees.  

Same here, except it's in the 50s.

 

And heavy showers knocking on my door.

[Grizzcoat]

RAP now in range--

 

[Grizzcoat]

18Z Euro  has warning snows where there is no watch and vice versa- looks like the King is caving to the GFS once again---

 

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

18Z Euro  has warning snows where there is no watch and vice versa- looks like the King is caving to the GFS once again---

 

Of course I don't want to see any nasty dry holes around here, but with the storm still two days away I'm sure the qpf details will flop around.

Is that a 10:1 map?

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

alrighty then..

CPC/WPC has indeed trended S here. Pretty sure I've never seen one of their maps like this b4. Like somebody said "why don't you just circle The Mitt? k, yeah, just like that, that's good" lol

[OmahaSnowFan]

Yep.

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep.

OUCH! for OMA. Sure is robust for Iowa tho

[Hawkeye]

00z HRRR...  Not very reliable at this distance from the event.

[jaster220]

GRR fairly bullish on the two events in the pipeline:

 

AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
657 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2023

- Possible Impacts with the Storm Thu Night to Friday

A mid level wave digs into the Great Lakes region during this time
generating stronger lift.  This lift shown to be in the DGZ and
peaks Thursday night into Friday morning.The upper jet has a
coupled look to it. This system will tap into some moisture from
the Gulf with PWAT values rising to above normal values. Models
are in relative agreement on this scenario. The models also show
some 700 mb FGEN...but vary considerably with the strength of it.
The GFS has the strongest look. Forecast soundings support snow as
the precipitation type. Mean ensemble snow forecasts are
supporting accumulating snow and an increased risk for impacts
especially for the Friday morning commute for much of the CWA.
Road temperatures will also the be coldest at this time of the
day. However there is still a lot of spread and the system has
been trending slightly quicker. Our forecasts will continue to
support a widespread snowfall event with an increased risk for
impacts. Most scenarios keep the region under warning
criteria...but trends going forward will need to be monitored
closely.

- Another storm system for Sunday night into Monday

A mid level low is shown to track in from the west northwest
Sunday night into Monday. Models are spread out on the timing and
strength of this feature...but they all have a signal there. This
will be another cold system...so mainly snow would be
expected. The moisture looks deep with this system...through 600
mb where temps are shown to be unusually cold at -30 deg C.
Moisture from Lake MI may also enhance this system with 850 mb
temperature dipping down colder than -10 deg C. The low level flow
is convergent on the backside of this system which would also
enhance the low level lift. Impacts appear possible from this
system

[Hawkeye]

00z NAM/3kNAM.... The 3k, in particular, has come way down with snow totals in Iowa compared to the last two runs.  Multiple models have teased a relative dry pocket over Cedar Rapids/Iowa City.

[East Dubzz]

Winter storm watch less than 48 hours away and the forecast is 3-9” lmao.. I mean I get it, it’s just funny to see.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z GFS-- 3"+ for DSM is overnight tonight which is unlikely.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Nice.. model spread from 0" to 9.8"in Ottumwa  Iowa.  So tired of this all winter.  Tough to run a business  here.