Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[Yerf]

Just over 6” here. Cold and blowing snow now

[Niko]

Still snowing moderately here in SEMI. Winds are gusty also, creating blowing snow. Easily a 4-8" snowfall will have fallen when its all set and done. I think the snow should finally end within an hour or 2 at the most.

[Niko]

Jaster, what is your total snowfall?

[Sciascia]

Tonight/tomorrow could be the biggest LES event for Chicago/ORD since March 13/14th, 2017. 5.2 of LES fell that day. Not sure if this can fetch us over 5, but maybe it can be close.

[Stormy]

I ended up with around 4.3" but could be a bit more as the wind direction shifted just enough to blow a little snow off the snow board I had behind a evergreen windbreak. But 2 core samples from that board amounted to 0.54" of liquid, so it was another high moisture snow though it didn't seem like it with the cold temperatures. Don't wanna go by my gauge catch as it seemed to high & can't really figure out why. The previous time I put two gauges back out while still windy all night & they didn't catch any blowing/drifting snow, so...?

[jaster220]

Jaster, what is your total snowfall?

 

Calling it 6.5" total subject to verification by NWS reports/map. Generally a very happy camper

 

 

Storm positives:

• Decent hit from a SLP south of the OHR
• Last-minute ramp-up saving us from total lameness
• Snow start to finish - no mixing bs
• Sub-freezing wx leading up to storm meant zero melting underneath
• Lightweight snow was an easy shovel for old dudes out of shape, lol
• Gives us a base on which to build upping my interest level several magnitudes for whatever else this pattern wants to deliver

[Tom]

Ended up with a finally total of 7.9"...right in the ball park of what was expected....now onto the LES wildcard!

[Niko]

 

Calling it 6.5" total subject to verification by NWS reports/map. Generally a very happy camper

 

 

Storm positives:

• Decent hit from a SLP south of the OHR
• Last-minute ramp-up saving us from total lameness
• Snow start to finish - no mixing bs
• Sub-freezing wx leading up to storm meant zero melting underneath
• Lightweight snow was an easy shovel for old dudes out of shape, lol
• Gives us a base on which to build upping my interest level several magnitudes for whatever else this pattern wants to deliver

 

Sweet. This was a good storm.

[Tony]

18z Nam hitting the LES hard for our side and for an extended period

[Niko]

Ended up with a finally total of 7.9"...right in the ball park of what was expected....now onto the LES wildcard!

Awesome. Now w the LES, you might get closer to maybe that 12" mark. Not too shabby.

 

 

Edit: Hoping now that we have a snowpack, the next storm will take a more southern shift. Models might not be seeing that yet. Hopefully, by tomorrow, they will.

[jaster220]

Yet another example of how lame GRR's forecasting is for their S tier of counties. Many reports like this one coming from Kzoo and Van Buren counties that easily met the 6+/12hr criteria for a warning in this region, yet no watches, no upgrades, nothing. Once that office writes it off for GR proper we down here get put on ignore

 

0820 AM SNOW PORTAGE 42.21N 85.59W
01/19/2019 M8.0 INCH KALAMAZOO MI PUBLIC

TOTAL SNOW SINCE LAST EVENING. STILL
SNOWING.

 

We dined in Portage last evening arriving just before 8 pm and it had just begun to spit flakes. Came out about an hour later and everything was coated with about 0.3-0.4" and it was coming down solidly and the snow was pretty moist. Knew it was a good sign for them to get the numbers being shown by the NAM, HRRR, etc.  Does not the NWS office look at the same models we are? Is it not obvious when they all trended more robust in the short-term that adjustments are due?

[Tom]

Lake Effect snow showers have blossomed across NE IL.  Currently getting some light snow falling amidst very windy and gusty winds out of the North, sustained at 25mph.  The heavier stuff is sliding down the lake in SE WI.  .

 

Current wind vectors showing a N/NE Flow coming down the lake...

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-90.76,40.66,3000

[Niko]

My snowfall total from Winterstorm Harper was an even 6 inches.  Very nice snowfall indeed.

 

I am having trouble downloading the measurement pic. Will try to repost again later.

[jaster220]

My snowfall total from Winterstorm Harper was an even 6 inches.  Very nice snowfall indeed.

 

I am having trouble downloading the measurement pic. Will try to repost again later.

 

Congrats buddy! We've rejoined the winter in progress to our SW. Now if we can just keep a snow cover thru whatever this cutting storm holds in store. Certainly we'll at least have our piles back around town which had all but disappeared a couple weeks ago.

[OKwx2k4]

Storm gave me a total of sub 1". It was enough to make everything white looking at least. Glad the cold was blunted. It was worthless to me anyway.

[jaster220]

[Niko]

Congrats buddy! We've rejoined the winter in progress to our SW. Now if we can just keep a snow cover thru whatever this cutting storm holds in store. Certainly we'll at least have our piles back around town which had all but disappeared a couple weeks ago.

Thanks amigo....now, lets keep adding to the snow piles and make up for the lost of December and half of January.

[Stormy]

My snow boards only have 3-3.5" on them.  Based on the rates the last few hours last night I was guessing around 4 inches.  This morning I see there are plenty of 5-6" reports from the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area, plus several 4.5" reports, so I guess I'll just record 4.5" for my yard.  I hate windy storms.

 

The wind destroyed the ratios.  My gauge catch, melted down, is actually 0.53".  That's way higher than I expected.  I then took a core sample from one of my boards with 3.1" on it.  It melted down to 0.48", a ridiculous 6.5 to 1 ratio.  The wind blows the snow around and compacts it.  If there was no wind, I probably would have measured 6+ inches.

I suspect wind blew some snow off of your snow board, but 4.5” sounds about right. I agree with you on hating windy storms! One thing I noticed during the November 25 storm here was that even though it was very windy, there were big flakes pouring down a few times!

[BrianJK]

Soooo... we’re just going to ignore the highly anticipated/hyped LES bust on this side of the lake it seems.

[Tom]

Soooo... we’re just going to ignore the highly anticipated/hyped LES bust on this side of the lake it seems.

Was just going to say, the Euro did the best job handling the lake plume. All the other models were much more aggressive keeping it into NE IL. Sorta disappointed it didn’t pan out but a healthy 7” snow pack around town still brought a smile to my face this morning. How about you?

[Tom]

@IndianaJohn, are you cashing in on that plume?

[indianajohn]

Nope I think I was to far south in schererville maybe .5” sun peaking out now

 

@IndianaJohn, are you cashing in on that plume?

[Andie]

Rather breezy yesterday. Winds were as high as 38 mph

 

High in the low 50's. But we dropped to 30* with Windchill in the mid 20's with that wind last night.

 

Bright sunny skies this a.m.. Winter may be on the doorstep. Calm winds today.

Currently 32* with a High of 53*

[james1976]

@Tom what was your total including LES?

[BrianJK]

Was just going to say, the Euro did the best job handling the lake plume. All the other models were much more aggressive keeping it into NE IL. Sorta disappointed it didn’t pan out but a healthy 7” snow pack around town still brought a smile to my face this morning. How about you?

 

Anytime we get 6+ I count as a win.  We happened to be in an area where multiple factors (with related uncertainties/bust potential) were at play.  First, the FGEN: always seem difficult to precisely pinpoint and a small shift can have large implications.  Second, the potential phasing: where the IF/WHEN make all the difference.  And finally, the LES: we all know how everything must come together perfectly for our side to really receive appreciable amounts.   Had all 3 magically worked out favorably for us, this would have been a very memorable event.  But again, hard to complain any time we get 6+ dropped on us.  Landscape really looks nice out there.  Hoping we can dodge the rain next week...

[Hoosier]

Was just going to say, the Euro did the best job handling the lake plume. All the other models were much more aggressive keeping it into NE IL. Sorta disappointed it didn’t pan out but a healthy 7” snow pack around town still brought a smile to my face this morning. How about you?

Euro was too quick to push it through Lake county Indiana though. HRRR/RAP caught on to that, but the inland penetration has been less than expected.

[Minny_Weather]

This wasn't the one.

[Tom]

@Tom what was your total including LES?

Only a coating from the intermittent snow showers and then the lake plume just grazed by late last night. @IllinoisWx scored big. I saw totals on the N side of downtown got close to 4” from LES.

[james1976]

Only a coating from the intermittent snow showers and then the lake plume just grazed by late last night. @IllinoisWx scored big. I saw totals on the N side of downtown got close to 4” from LES.

You still got about 8 tho right? Nice system for many.

[jaster220]

This wasn't the one.

 

Certainly not for some like you farthest west peeps

 

You still got about 8 tho right? Nice system for many.

 

Yes it was, your's truly included.

 

My first thoughts were "Is this the one to spread the wealth?" but many or most west of MI had just enjoyed a storm last week so that seemed unfitting. Then I thought about "Is this the one to bury Chicago?" but that seemed too localized. I settled on what I did allowing each member to fill-in the blank as they saw fit. To me, it was about this storm being the one to bring winter's return and end the abysmal 50 day stretch of dustings. This one came thru for mby

[Jaycee]

Only a coating from the intermittent snow showers and then the lake plume just grazed by late last night. @IllinoisWx scored big. I saw totals on the N side of downtown got close to 4” from LES.

 

I did for once! It even snowed an additional 1" last night which was a nice surprise. Ended up with around 8-9". Loved this storm, LES is my favorite!