jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 A little further out then we normally do a thread but signal strength and models can't be ignored, lol. For some just grazed by yesterday's storm, the excitement is palpable. While GFS and FV3 seem progressive and rush a N Stream wave thru in 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 A little further out then we normally do a thread but signal strength and models can't be ignored, lol. For some just grazed by yesterday's storm, the excitement is palpable. While GFS and FV3 seem progressive and rush a N Stream wave thru in 20190113 0z GGEM h162.PNG Both the Euro/ICON slow this system down like the GGEM is showing and dig the storm a lot better. Nice to see 12z guidance thus far today painting a sweet west/east storm track and one that practically can have many of us again cherish in the snow dept. Might I also add, temps look ideal for higher snowfall ratios. Not to mention, the Lehs/LES set up for SE WI/NE IL/N IN is about as good as one could ask 5-6 days out on the models. A wide open lake with crashing 850's gives me goosebumps in terms of potential with this one. 12z GGEM... 12z ICON... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 wow, ready to track the next one! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 A little further out then we normally do a thread but signal strength and models can't be ignored, lol. For some just grazed by yesterday's storm, the excitement is palpable. While GFS and FV3 seem progressive and rush a N Stream wave thru in 20190113 0z GGEM h162.PNG Ty lord....finally! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Storm train is rolling! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 This storm will have some strong winds to content with and also it will be a cold storm at that. Boy o boy, a very fun week coming up. I want to add also that after this big dog, brutally cold air follows. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 LRC says this one tracks further north than this past storm. The storm that hit Kansas the weekend after Thanksgiving produced blizzard conditions, the storm the following weekend hit my area. I just hope this time around it doesn’t go to far north!! With the NAO being neutral we should expect a west/east track. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 LRC says this one tracks further north than this past storm. The storm that hit Kansas the weekend after Thanksgiving produced blizzard conditions, the storm the following weekend hit my area. I just hope this time around it doesn’t go to far north!! With the NAO being neutral we should expect a west/east track.The remarkable consistency of the global models all showing this storm reminds me of storms from the past that we tracked before and how they all panned out. I do like the northerly track and would expect to see both you and Clint's are scoring a hit from this one. For some reason, this storms track reminds of the Nov 24th-25th Blizzard. It's not out of the realm of possibility this one gets wound up into one. Fun times tracking this week! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 LRC says this one tracks further north than this past storm. The storm that hit Kansas the weekend after Thanksgiving produced blizzard conditions, the storm the following weekend hit my area. I just hope this time around it doesn’t go to far north!! With the NAO being neutral we should expect a west/east track.Hopefully this pans out for us. Time to replenish the snowpack around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 12z Ukie also on board....taking a northerly track...one would expect the Euro to come north as well....crazy how every model is showing a large system... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Ty lord....finally! Can say that again amigo 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 12z Ukie also on board....taking a northerly track...one would expect the Euro to come north as well....crazy how every model is showing a large system... GGEM snow map and this qpf map, you can clearly see a northern component that hits NE/SD region and (hopefully) merges a bit east with a piece coming up from the the S. I think that the sooner those two get together the bigger/slower/stronger it can be. As for model agreement, yeah this one's on GHD-1 levels imho 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 GGEM snow map and this qpf map, you can clearly see a northern component that hits NE/SD region and (hopefully) merges a bit east with a piece coming up from the the S. I think that the sooner those two get together the bigger/slower/stronger it can be. As for model agreement, yeah this one's on GHD-1 levels imhoYou can rest assure, your seeing what I’m seeing amigo. This one has Bigly potential. With that in mind, looks like the 12z Euro came back north this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 GGEM snow map and this qpf map, you can clearly see a northern component that hits NE/SD region and (hopefully) merges a bit east with a piece coming up from the the S. I think that the sooner those two get together the bigger/slower/stronger it can be. As for model agreement, yeah this one's on GHD-1 levels imhoActually, I think this one looks more like the Super Bowl Blitz in ‘15 which is one of this years analogs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Check that, 12z Euro is the only model showing the southerly route....not quite as phased as it tracks east and almost sheers out a bit. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Actually, I think this one looks more like the Super Bowl Blitz in ‘15 which is one of this years analogs. For sure, tho iirc, the orig GHD storm was "seen" by the models further out, no? At any rate, you're correct in the type of ingredients and W to E track on this guy. GFS brothers continue to focus on the N energy and ignore and S snow swath. I prefer to sit with some S (Euro) and some N (GGEM) at this range 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 For sure, tho iirc, the orig GHD storm was "seen" by the models further out, no? At any rate, you're correct in the type of ingredients and W to E track on this guy. GFS brothers continue to focus on the N energy and ignore and S snow swath. 20190113 12z FV3 SN total at h162.PNG I prefer to sit with some S (Euro) and some N (GGEM) at this rangeYup, your right about the GHD-1 storm. I remember the Euro 9 days out showed a PanHandle Hook and then within 6-7 days, all the other models caught up. Similar situation here. Models certainly seeing the energy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Yup, your right about the GHD-1 storm. I remember the Euro 9 days out showed a PanHandle Hook and then within 6-7 days, all the other models caught up. Similar situation here. Models certainly seeing the energy. How are you able to get an ICON snowfall map out to h180? TT cuts off about h120. My pay site also seems to stop there.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 In regards to this cold storm, some record cold follows. More series of snowstorms thereafter. Hello Winter! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 UKmet at h144 leaning GGEM's way vs the progressive GFS portrayal. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 For sure, tho iirc, the orig GHD storm was "seen" by the models further out, no? At any rate, you're correct in the type of ingredients and W to E track on this guy. GFS brothers continue to focus on the N energy and ignore and S snow swath. 20190113 12z FV3 SN total at h162.PNG I prefer to sit with some S (Euro) and some N (GGEM) at this rangeAm I seeing a foot there?! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 13/12z FV3 does get the SLP down to 994mb as it passes just south of here. For the debate on whether this is Nov25-26 or Dec1-2 you know what my answer will be without even asking Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Am I seeing a foot there?! Yes, your eyes are NOT playing tricks. GGEM has widespread 12+ for even more of The Mitt but slightly north of our backyards. Attm, strength is more important than placement. That'll get dialed in as we go.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 From a rather conservative Met in SEMI 100% there is blizzard potential with this one. The pressure gradient is very stout with this system. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 From a rather conservative Met in SEMI Yes..would not be surprised at all as this major storm will be a windmaker. Strong pressure gradient HP will be to our west crashing w this LP will cause a very tight pressure gradient. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 I will be focusing attm on the ensembles as I think that is the best way to go. IMO, it is just too soon to get fixated on any one OP run. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 From a rather conservative Met in SEMI Stebo is not “conservative met” and he’s one of the biggest snow weenies around Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 In regards to this cold storm, some record cold follows. More series of snowstorms thereafter. Hello Winter!record?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Stebo is not “conservative met” and he’s one of the biggest snow weenies around I find him to be, but whatever. Ricky from LOT talks up snow potential much more fwiw. Also, I'm not including warmista Met's that only begrudgingly mention a snowstorm after it's imminent. Those Met's aren't even "fair and balanced" 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Here's your Encyclopedia Britannica definition of conservative Met. Almost all of 'em at GRR. Funny how that phrase is a constant wrt synoptic events until we're already have 6-8" OTG somewhere in their CWA High uncertainty remains, and likely will for at least a few moredays, regarding the track and timing of another big synopticsystem with accumulating snow next weekend. Operational ECMWFmaintains the theme of a system eerily similar to the one thatjust tracked by to our south on Saturday. However the latestCanadian GEM and GFS deterministic solutions, as well as a few ofthe EC ensemble members, are farther north with that system andbring the swath of heavy snow across srn Lwr MI. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Hey guys, In regards to the track of this next system I just wonder what affects the current snow cover will have on the track? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 How are you able to get an ICON snowfall map out to h180? TT cuts off about h120. My pay site also seems to stop there..Both 00z/12z go out to hr180, 06z/18z only out to hr120... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Hey guys, In regards to the track of this next system I just wonder what affects the current snow cover will have on the track?Very minimal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 I find him to be, but whatever. Ricky from LOT talks up snow potential much more fwiw. Also, I'm not including warmista Met's that only begrudgingly mention a snowstorm after it's imminent. Those Met's aren't even "fair and balanced"are their really NWS mets that do this?? There is a difference between being conservative and a warminista Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Hey guys, In regards to the track of this next system I just wonder what affects the current snow cover will have on the track? My light covering is melting under 32F and sun. 33F for a high tomorrow. This came after weeks or even months of warmth so it's covering unfrozen ground. I fully expect the southern end of this to shrink quite a bit by Friday morning, perhaps up to around I-70 in SIL on into SIN and SOH. Thus, it should not have much stopping a SLP from tracking that far north if it wants to. Hopefully tho, it could aid in keeping WAA at a minimum unlike the bare ground we started with back in Nov. That's my 2-cents. Others may feel differently. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Wow! This could be another good one. And this time we will have amazing ratios with temperatures so cold. Even just .30 of QPF would give us 6 inches in that type of cold air! 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Wpc already jumping the chances for the next storm. Starting to get fun this winter. My dad is kinda freaking out because of the last storm. Worried about the weight of the snow collapsing the roof. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2019 Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 My highs might now be getting outta the low teens for highs, if not colder. Nighttime lows will easily drop subzero IMBY, especially, w snowcover. Very cold air is poised to follow this storm. I can definitely see some record low temps being broken. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 18z ICON (only goes to h120) has a SLP in the classic panhandle location with a large snow shield breaking out to it's north across Neb and S Dakota Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2019 Wpc already jumping the chances for the next storm. Starting to get fun this winter. My dad is kinda freaking out because of the last storm. Worried about the weight of the snow collapsing the roof. Not sure what their typical time-frame is, but for y'all out in Neb it's only about 120 hrs out..just sayin' Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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