Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[gimmesnow]

Yes please, I got my snowmobile suspension all figured out.

[Niko]

@Jaster

 

how do the ensembles look?

[Stormhunter87]

Not sure what their typical time-frame is, but for y'all out in Neb it's only about 120 hrs out..just sayin'

It's their 4-7 day outlook for winter weather.http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=6

[jaster220]

13/18z GFS = same SLP in the P-handle but already 998 mb, couple deeper than that ICON above. EDIT - it's also 6 hrs later timestamp I noticed.

 

[Stormhunter87]

13/18z GFS = same SLP in the P-handle but already 998 mb, couple deeper than that ICON above.

Oh that is looking good. 540 line well south and the low is looking beefy.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Upper-level troughing will then develop east of the Rockies on
Friday and quickly amplify as the trough deepens and carves into
northern Texas early Saturday. A resulting ridge will develop east
and will expand into the Ohio Valley as a sheared jet streak
positioned from TX into southern MI intensifies. Quite a big jump
regarding position of this system relative to yesterday`s guidance,
as now the GFS (including FV3), GEM, ECMWF have this system
impacting parts if not all of SE MI at some point during the
weekend with heavy snow.

[jaster220]

Wpc already jumping the chances for the next storm. Starting to get fun this winter. My dad is kinda freaking out because of the last storm. Worried about the weight of the snow collapsing the roof.

 

Nice look already from this range

 

[Clinton]

GFS wants to crush me at hr144

[Money]

Hits the same areas that just got hit

[Hawkeye]

There are major 500 mb changes showing on the GFS the last few runs.  First and foremost is the slowing of the main energy coming in from the west.  It's trending toward the slower euro.  What Iowa needs is for the Hudson Bay vort lobes to back off a bit so the main energy doesn't get suppressed.

 

[Clinton]

Hits the same areas that just got hit

Sorry guys I snuck into Chicago and stole Toms snow magnet!

[Tom]

18z GFS...

[Tom]

Sorry guys I snuck into Chicago and stole Toms snow magnet!

Tug-a-War!  Haha, it sorta worked for the last one over here after days of watching the models showing my area riding the edge.  Good luck and hopefully we can both get hit good.

[jaster220]

There are major 500 mb changes showing on the GFS the last few runs.  First and foremost is the slowing of the main energy coming in from the west.  It's trending toward the slower euro.  What Iowa needs is for the Hudson Bay vort lobes to back off a bit so the main energy doesn't get suppressed.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh144_trend.gif

 

True dat, but those further east could argue we want it to dig more and have a chance to come NE stronger.

[Clinton]

Tug-a-War!  Haha, it sorta worked for the last one over here after days of watching the models showing my area riding the edge.  Good luck and hopefully we can both get hit good.

I expect we will both do well.  Good luck to everybody and man its great to have storms to track!

[jaster220]

@Jaster

 

how do the ensembles look?

 

13/12z GEFS looked rather suppressed actually. Not good for SMI.

[East Dubzz]

Man, can’t seem to catch a break this winter. Hopefully some things change!

[jaster220]

GFS certainly caught onto the beefed up qpf potential from 12z to 18z!

 

 

vs 18z

 

[Niko]

13/12z GEFS looked rather suppressed actually. Not good for SMI.

Thanks amigo! We will see so many changes in this one....boy, it will be a long week

[Niko]

WOW!

 

http://i68.tinypic.com/2myvlgz.jpg

[jaster220]

WOW!

 

http://i68.tinypic.com/2myvlgz.jpg

 

Haha! Midwest, always the bridesmaid, never the bride

[Niko]

Local weatherman just said that there is potential for a big snowstorm for SMI. Way too early to even remotely know what will happen. Bears watching he said.

[Niko]

Haha! Midwest, always the bridesmaid, never the bride

 

Looks like an inner runner for them, although, from Philly to Bos gets buried from 12"+ on this run. Too bad is not 48hrs away.

[Money]

Man, can’t seem to catch a break this winter. Hopefully some things change!

Steal Toms snow magnet from Clinton

[Hawkeye]

The northeast US can get totals like that because they aren't limited to 0.5"/hr rates like us.

[Niko]

The EC right now is looking great.....a lot of snow for them. Hopefully, we can get in on some action too. We will see how all of this plays out. Still couple of days away.

[Stacsh]

This will be South. At least for Michigan folks. This Will be a record for least snowiest winter Ever. Depressing. Southern Jet FTW. WWE (Worst Winter Ever). Enjoy the snow everyone else.

[jaster220]

This will be South. At least for Michigan folks. This Will be a record for least snowiest winter Ever. Depressing. Southern Jet FTW. WWE (Worst Winter Ever). Enjoy the snow everyone else.

 

Not sure this comes all the way into GR turf, but those of us 94 and south can at least share in the fun IF things go our way. Just for giggles, the 18z GEFS mean snow axis was a bit further north than it's 12z. Last minute north trends happened with this last storm, nothing says can't happen again. Many 13/12z EPS member had good snows way north in MI. One even whiffed Marshall to the north.

 

[jaster220]

In my gut, I really feel that with a stronger shortwave and surface reflection, the idea of WAA getting the liquid line up to I-70 as shown here by the 13/18z FV3 makes a lot of sense.

 

[Niko]

This will be South. At least for Michigan folks. This Will be a record for least snowiest winter Ever. Depressing. Southern Jet FTW. WWE (Worst Winter Ever). Enjoy the snow everyone else.

Way too soon to even know where, when and how far S/N this far out. Give it time. Either we will get snow or we will not. Thats the beauty of weather.

[Stormhunter87]

Icon going way south.

[jaster220]

Way too soon to even know where, when and how far S/N this far out. Give it time. Either we will get snow or we will not. Thats the beauty of weather.

 

This. 14/0z ICON goes so far south it whiffs this entire sub-forum

[jaster220]

Icon going way south.

 

Not sure how well it's reading the strength of the arctic HP, but it comes down like a hammer and pushes it so far south it never recovers any latitude. Discouraging to say the least

[jaster220]

14/0z GFS @84 looks warm, north, and weak fwiw. Lots to sort out yet peeps - don't touch that dial

 

EDIT- that's the little forerunner wave on Thurs, not the main event.

[jaster220]

14/0z GFS at h120 snow advancing to ORD, h126 in SWMI   RN/SN line to STL-ish

[Grizzcoat]

GFS through 141- note this also contains weak first wave. 

 

[jaster220]

GFS through 141- note this also contains weak first wave. 

 

USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_141.gif

 

Again that HP crashes the party and it can't make the turn N. Just gets squished eastward and weakens. IF these models are over-playing that HP movement, it would change how this plays out quite a bit for those that need it to at least keep moving east.

[Grizzcoat]

cmc is well N of the GFS.

[jaster220]

Icon going way south.

 

..and 14/0z GGEM with axis NORTH of mby - hahahahaha

 

[jaster220]

Something tells me this is far from set in stone