Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

[mlgamer]

Hey guys. I had to take a road trip to south KC (Overland Park) this past Saturday morning so luckily I got in on the heavy snowfall there while it was doing nada at my house in SW Topeka. Man, nothing beats being out in a good snowstorm!

 

Hopefully this next storm pans out and is share the wealth for much of the sub. After Saturday I'm jonesing for more snow so gotta keep the storms coming.

[East Dubzz]

On the northern edge again... come on storm, show me the money!!

[westMJim]

This last weekend’s heavy snow was a doozy for KC Metro. As of this morning, still 45,000 without power.

 

Hopefully this next one is a bit lighter snow with the cold temps this go round. I’m a mountain-raised kid having lived in Alaska and Utah. Bring it.

Welcome nice to see new people 

[Clinton]

This is from Gary Lezaks blog this morning.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

• Today:  Snow flurries this morning.  Expect a cloudy sky with a few flurries.  High:  33°
• Tuesday:  Cloudy early with some sun finally breaking out. High: 42°
• Wednesday:  Increasing clouds and turning colder. High:  36°
• Thursday’s storm:  Cloudy with a chance of rain-sleet-snow for a short period of time as a system zips by early in the day.  High: 37°
• Friday:  Cloudy and breezy with rain likely developing during the day. The rain will change to snow Friday night.  High:  39°
• Saturday:  Snow likely, possibly heavy early in the day.  It will be windy with blowing snow and crashing temperatures dropping into the teens.  Accumulations of snow are likely.
• Sunday:  Becoming mostly sunny, cold, with the wind dying down.  Temperatures in the single digits to teens.
• Sunday night for the game:  Dry and cold with light south winds. Temperatures between 5 and 12 degrees.

Temperatures Sunday morning:

[Stormhunter87]

This is definitely going to be fun one to watch. WPC keeping a wide area under the gun. And of course the local guys are getting pissed that people are sharing snow maps on social media.

[gosaints]

GEFS trend would be leaning towards the southern midwest again.  Will be interesting where they head at 12z.

[Tony]

Just catching up on this thread and boy does the Euro and Ukmet really blossom the qpf for this storm for our sub-forum and continues to increase going east of us. Track is way up in the air but many will get nailed with this system and LES and Lehs a very good possibility for our area. Fun tracking the rest of the work week. 

[FarmerRick]

This is definitely going to be fun one to watch. WPC keeping a wide area under the gun. And of course the local guys are getting pissed that people are sharing snow maps on social media.

Who is that?

[Stormhunter87]

Who is that?

Rusty Lord calling people dumb for sharing snow maps.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z ICON at hour 105 looking great for us Nebraskans on here. 

[Stormhunter87]

12Z ICON at hour 105 looking great for us Nebraskans on here.

Looks like decent snow bands but it is being forced south really quickly. I won't be super lucky about getting more snow but man the ICON is really pushing this storm.

Edit: Central Nebraska does great on this run

[Snowshoe]

Looks like i'm sitting this storm out yet again. Winter better not show up in April like it did last year!

[GDR]

Looks like it blows up in Iowa on gfs

[jzuzphreek]

This last weekend’s heavy snow was a doozy for KC Metro. As of this morning, still 45,000 without power.

 

Hopefully this next one is a bit lighter snow with the cold temps this go round. I’m a mountain-raised kid having lived in Alaska and Utah. Bring it.

Greetings KCSmokey! I'm a Southern, bayou-raised kid (New Orleans), recently relocated to St. Joe, MO. And I also say, "Bring it on!"

[Minny_Weather]

Rusty Lord calling people dumb for sharing snow maps.

Rusty Dawkins too. I'm not a fan of either. Both get way too emotional on social media. I'm all for anti-hype, but they both legit go after people.

[bud2380]

GFS starting to look like a strong clipper coming through now.  Still a solid hit for many though.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011412/120/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[james1976]

GFS has been pretty consistent with this solution.

[Stormhunter87]

Rusty Dawkins too. I'm not a fan of either. Both get way too emotional on social media. I'm all for anti-hype, but they both legit go after people.

Yeah I thought he was alright up until this year. He just keeps calling out people or saying he is better. He was wrong in the last storm and he changed his forecast as the snow was falling. Anywho just annoying that they do that. What they should do is reply with input or provide their line of thinking not call people dumb. Atm they are the dumb looking ones.

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, it's a decent storm, but the northwest flow over the lakes won't allow it to really wrap up.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like decent snow bands but it is being forced south really quickly. I won't be super lucky about getting more snow but man the ICON is really pushing this storm.

Edit: Central Nebraska does great on this run

Unfortunately not so well on GFS or Canadian.  Still many things to happen during this week.

[dubuque473]

Bodes well I am not in the bullseye this far out.

[Hawkeye]

FV3 is an improvement vs the 00z run.

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie pretty much in line with others. Will be interesting to see precip shield if someone can post. Thanks in advance.

[hlcater]

Last night's ukie was super impressive with over 2" of QPF(likely as snow) in some spots.

[Hawkeye]

12z UK has taken a big step back... now much closer to the other weaker, more progressive models.  Cedar Rapids only gets 2-3 inches.

 

Frankly, it doesn't appear the setup is right for Iowa to get a biggie out of this.  I'm just hoping for a 3-6-incher.

[Tom]

12z GEFS total qpf....

 

[hlcater]

12z UK has taken a big step back... now much closer to the other weaker, more progressive models. Cedar Rapids only gets 2-3 inches.

 

Frankly, it doesn't appear the setup is right for Iowa to get a biggie out of this. I'm just hoping for a 3-6-incher.

Though to be fair, I do have higher than normal confidence in at least *some* snow.

[jaster220]

00z EPS coming in juicier and a bit N compared to previous runs.  I glanced through all 51 members and nearly 90-95% have a major winter storm targeting a lot of us in the Plains/MW/Lower GL's.  There are some big hits showing up and wound up storms.

 

I think the Euro is catching on. That WGN map does not match what you posted for the Op Euro very well which had much more in SMI, at least it looked that way. 14/12z Ukie took a step back and GEFS are lame. I still feel there's time for this to trend slower, stronger, bigger as some runs of each model have flashed. I think the suppressed/squished storm portrayal will correct itself in due time. Time will tell my gut if it's right or not, lol. In the meantime happy tracking! This is a fun stretch of #winter

 

All in all, at this range, I like the "share the wealth" look this system is showing....for comparisons here are the Euro/GFS snow maps....

 

 

[Jaycee]

I’m not worried. Still super far out, plenty of time for it to change back. If you think about it, it’s better when it does this 100+ hours, and it’s always pretty inevitable for it to do just that. Hopefully models will pick back up on it, I’m not losing hope for a solid snowstorm for a lot this forum.

[Tom]

12z FV3...will today's 12z Euro hold onto the stronger version??? 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

I think the Euro is catching on. That WGN map does not match what you posted for the Op Euro very well which had much more in SMI, at least it looked that way. 14/12z Ukie took a step back and GEFS are lame. I still feel there's time for this to trend slower, stronger, bigger as some runs of each model have flashed. I think the suppressed/squished storm portrayal will correct itself in due time. Time will tell my gut if it's right or not, lol. In the meantime happy tracking! This is a fun stretch of #winter

 

A KLOT Met sums up my thoughts to a "T"

 

 

 

UKMET gives the southern stream wave a lot more room to breathe with PV lobe much less suppressive. Main wave goes negative tilt and closes off at h5, resulting in STL to IND surface low track. Great example of the caution needed for this scenario this far out and that pretty much all options still on the table. Also a great example of the ceiling of this setup if everything comes together right, though that surface low track would not be good the farther south and east you get.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro with a 999 low in East Central Colorado at hour 96.  Where does it go from there?  

[Grizzcoat]

12Z Euro with a 999 low in East Central Colorado at hour 96.  Where does it go from there?  

NW ( west central ) ARK

[Grizzcoat]

Euro good hit for SE NE and most of S.IA

[ToastedRavs]

Remarkably similar qpf outputs from GFS and Euro this far out for Des Moines

[CentralNebWeather]

NW ( west central ) ARK

That's quite a jump 

[Tom]

FWIW, the 12z FV3 and 2z Euro are nearly identical in placement of the SLP in AR at Hr120....not the big one but atleast an appreciable snow for many to enjoy.

[Grizzcoat]

[Tom]

ecmwfued_rapid-null--usnc_ll-126-C-kucheratot_whitecounty.png

Snow ratios must be pretty high provided these totals could actually verify...lots of powda flying around with this system...

[james1976]

Do you guys think Kuchera is pretty realistic with this system? I know ratios will be higher than 10:1.