Jan. 22nd-23rd Winter Storm

[Money]

Models have been consistent on taking a low pressure system and cutting it through IA/WI

 

18z GFS

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2019011818&fh=108&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

 

12z GEM

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_024h&rh=2019011812&fh=114&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Money]

One thing this storm will have is an insane temp gradient to work with

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfct&rh=2019011812&fh=108&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

 

12z GFS FV3

 

Temps in the low 20’s in the snow area where its 40 just 30 miles away

[hlcater]

75 miles south please. Which is more than a feasible shift if snowcover/cold airmass prove to be more potent than forecast. Would shunt baroclinic zone out of Iowa and into MO hopefully coaxing the low to track along that instead.

[Minny_Weather]

Eh. This one screams dry air followed by 2" on the backside for Lincoln right now.

[Money]

Gfs FV3

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=snku_024h&rh=2019011818&fh=108&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

 

12+ for LSE

[Hawkeye]

Please don't track right over us and drop rain.  That would suck after two nice snow events.

[james1976]

Looks amazing here but long ways out. Rain or a foot. On the edge

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Icon is a great hit for Central Nebraska. Another storm to start tracking. Been awhile since our December 26th blizzard.

[hlcater]

Also a shearing out system would also support a flatter track. I've got a suspicion things actually trend a bit south over the next few days and that's removed from the IMBY bias. I think models are cutting this too hard.

[ToastedRavs]

I don't have maps yet, but for Des Moines, the European gives .78 qpf for Tuesday. Please let this occur!!!

[hlcater]

I don't have maps yet, but for Des Moines, the European gives .78 qpf for Tuesday. Please let this occur!!!

I'm more inclined to believe the Euro as the track that its rendition of the surface low takes makes more sense given snow cover and the nature of the system itself. It's much flatter than the GFS and especially the CMC.

[ToastedRavs]

I'm more inclined to believe the Euro as the track that its rendition of the surface low takes makes more sense given snow cover and the nature of the system itself. It's much flatter than the GFS and especially the CMC.

Let's hope so. Gives CID .81 qpf!

[jaster220]

I'm more inclined to believe the Euro as the track that its rendition of the surface low takes makes more sense given snow cover and the nature of the system itself. It's much flatter than the GFS and especially the CMC.

 

GRR sure seems convinced of snow. Even have it in my grid. They've been calling for a snowstorm in their AFD's for several days already. Seem to be ignoring the many warm rainer runs that have crept into the picture.

[hlcater]

GRR sure seems convinced of snow. Even have it in my grid. They've been calling for a snowstorm in their AFD's for several days already. Seem to be ignoring the many warm rainer runs that have crept into the picture.

If you ask me, those runs just dont make sense. Why would a shearing out surface low(above 1000mb) cut so hard and over deep snow, away from where the baroclinic zone would theoretically be. This system isn't gonna have the ability to displace the baroclinic zone very far from wherever it ends up as WAA probably wouldn't be too intense with a weakening system overall. We'll see, just dont think this goes straight into deep snow like the CMC and GFS want to do.

[Grizzcoat]

Book it Danno!!! (if you get it or don't get -you know my age-- The original Hawaii Five-O) 

 

[Tom]

06z Euro is suggest a weakening SLP as it track ENE out of CO into KS/MO keeping the R/S line at or about from I-80 on north across IA into IL.  This would be a positive trend if it shows up on today's 12z runs.  @hlcater, what you mentioned may be something to look for as there will be a deep snow pack across the MW and the modeling may be digesting that data better.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Hopefully this storm can deliver for many Nebraskans who have been missed by almost every storm this winter. I have been very fortunate in our area of Central Nebraska, but it has been almost a month since we have had anything more than a flurry or brief snow shower. 12z 12 km NAM looks promising.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Icon. Nice hit.

[Money]

Decent shift south on 12z gfs

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS also a nice looking amount. Not massive but something to really make many of us happy.

[Money]

Looks like a solid 4-7 band from IA into WI

 

Weaker low overall but meh

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019011912&fh=90&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_024h&m=gfs

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like a solid 4-7 band from IA into WI

 

Weaker low overall but meh

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019011912&fh=90&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_024h&m=gfs

That band comes across my area of Nebraska. I would be ecstatic with a 4-7” amount. I’m sure @gabel23 would like any amount at this point.

[Minny_Weather]

I'd be happy with the 4" GFS is showing.

[Iowawx]

GFS with 6 inches here. Awesome!

[GDR]

Another six plus. I’m not sure my back can take it

[CentralNebWeather]

12z CMC also good. Good to see these models all fairly similar. This only being 72 hours out or a little less makes me feel better that this isn’t 7 days out. I will anxiously await the Euro.

[Stormhunter87]

I'm with LNK I'll take the 4 on the GFS. CMC looks good all around except here lol.

[james1976]

Looking pretty consistent. I like where I'm at.

[CentralNebWeather]

FV3 looks about the same as the other 3. Very consistent morning of runs.

[GDR]

[james1976]

DMX not excited about this. Only calling for a couple inches.

[gabel23]

FV3 looks about the same as the other 3. Very consistent morning of runs.

Hoping we both get involved with a healthy band of snow going southwest to the northeast. I'm thinking @Clint would love it too as we have had a string of bad luck lately. I did pick up a dusting of snow over night to go along with the .20" of ice yesterday. the side streets around town is like a skating rink! 

[CentralNebWeather]

Hoping we both get involved with a healthy band of snow going southwest to the northeast. I'm thinking @Clint would love it too as we have had a string of bad luck lately. I did pick up a dusting of snow over night to go along with the .20" of ice yesterday. the side streets around town is like a skating rink!

Forgot about @Clint. Yes he has also been missed frequently as well. Same thing here with ice and a dusting, the freezing drizzle caused many issues.

[Tom]

12z Euro...Chicago riding the southern edge...so close....

[Minny_Weather]

Get that disgusting Euro run away from me.

[BrianJK]

12z Euro...Chicago riding the southern edge...so close....

Just keep the rain away.

[Tom]

Just keep the rain away.

Actually, there is over .50” of rain across N IL...

[WBadgersW]

Euro looks good. We need to give C WI some love.

[hlcater]

I don’t care whether it snows or not, I just don’t want it to rain. Rain ruins a good snowpack.

[Hawkeye]

I'm not feeling good about this weak cutter.  Like hlcater, I'd hate to see rain ruin the insulating snow ahead of the arctic cold.