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Jan. 22nd-23rd Winter Storm


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75 miles south please. Which is more than a feasible shift if snowcover/cold airmass prove to be more potent than forecast. Would shunt baroclinic zone out of Iowa and into MO hopefully coaxing the low to track along that instead.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Please don't track right over us and drop rain.  That would suck after two nice snow events.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Also a shearing out system would also support a flatter track. I've got a suspicion things actually trend a bit south over the next few days and that's removed from the IMBY bias. I think models are cutting this too hard.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I don't have maps yet, but for Des Moines, the European gives .78 qpf for Tuesday. Please let this occur!!!

I'm more inclined to believe the Euro as the track that its rendition of the surface low takes makes more sense given snow cover and the nature of the system itself. It's much flatter than the GFS and especially the CMC.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I'm more inclined to believe the Euro as the track that its rendition of the surface low takes makes more sense given snow cover and the nature of the system itself. It's much flatter than the GFS and especially the CMC.

 

GRR sure seems convinced of snow. Even have it in my grid. They've been calling for a snowstorm in their AFD's for several days already. Seem to be ignoring the many warm rainer runs that have crept into the picture.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRR sure seems convinced of snow. Even have it in my grid. They've been calling for a snowstorm in their AFD's for several days already. Seem to be ignoring the many warm rainer runs that have crept into the picture.

If you ask me, those runs just dont make sense. Why would a shearing out surface low(above 1000mb) cut so hard and over deep snow, away from where the baroclinic zone would theoretically be. This system isn't gonna have the ability to displace the baroclinic zone very far from wherever it ends up as WAA probably wouldn't be too intense with a weakening system overall. We'll see, just dont think this goes straight into deep snow like the CMC and GFS want to do.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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06z Euro is suggest a weakening SLP as it track ENE out of CO into KS/MO keeping the R/S line at or about from I-80 on north across IA into IL.  This would be a positive trend if it shows up on today's 12z runs.  @hlcater, what you mentioned may be something to look for as there will be a deep snow pack across the MW and the modeling may be digesting that data better.

 

 

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Hopefully this storm can deliver for many Nebraskans who have been missed by almost every storm this winter. I have been very fortunate in our area of Central Nebraska, but it has been almost a month since we have had anything more than a flurry or brief snow shower. 12z 12 km NAM looks promising.

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Looks like a solid 4-7 band from IA into WI

 

Weaker low overall but meh

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019011912&fh=90&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_024h&m=gfs

That band comes across my area of Nebraska. I would be ecstatic with a 4-7” amount. I’m sure @gabel23 would like any amount at this point.

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FV3 looks about the same as the other 3. Very consistent morning of runs.

Hoping we both get involved with a healthy band of snow going southwest to the northeast. I'm thinking @Clint would love it too as we have had a string of bad luck lately. I did pick up a dusting of snow over night to go along with the .20" of ice yesterday. the side streets around town is like a skating rink! 

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Hoping we both get involved with a healthy band of snow going southwest to the northeast. I'm thinking @Clint would love it too as we have had a string of bad luck lately. I did pick up a dusting of snow over night to go along with the .20" of ice yesterday. the side streets around town is like a skating rink!

Forgot about @Clint. Yes he has also been missed frequently as well. Same thing here with ice and a dusting, the freezing drizzle caused many issues.

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I'm not feeling good about this weak cutter.  Like hlcater, I'd hate to see rain ruin the insulating snow ahead of the arctic cold.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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