Jan. 22nd-23rd Winter Storm

[Stormhunter87]

Loved the nam this year but now I have to cheer on the euro. What a odd storm.

[Niko]

Nam is the way to go, but the million dollar question here is, can it be trusted?! I think its more reliable than GFS, but I am also anxious to see if Euro follows the NAM. The good thing about this storm is that its not 7 or 8 days away. It is literally 36-48 hrs from the event. Cant believe couple of days ago, it was showing 12"+ for my area. No longer the case now.

[Money]

No big changes on the gfs

[Iowawx]

12z NAM 3km also coming in colder across all of IA into N IL...you can see the models this morning pulling down colder air as the system is showing signs it wants to phase with the northern stream as it tracks across the MW/GL's...check out the 500mb animation...

Are you saying models might trend south? We are cutting it close here in CR. Any slight shift south puts us back in the heaviest snow.

[Money]

GFS

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012012&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

[St Paul Storm]

^ nice little uptick. I’d take that and run with it.

[jcwxguy]

12z GFS

[VMB443]

How is GFS versus the NAM this year? To my untrained eye it looks as if the NAM has been overdoing precipitation but doing well with the track? Whereas GFS seems to be kind of flopping around on both? Am I seeing that right?

[St Paul Storm]

GEM brings the sauce to N IA and S MN. Solid hits all around.

[Minny_Weather]

Norfolk with the best amounts on GFS. Sigh.

[Stormhunter87]

Norfolk with the best amounts on GFS. Sigh.

It has come back to haunt us.

[hlcater]

Ratios will prob be close to 10:1 with this due to WAA aloft.

[jaster220]

Ratios will prob be close to 10:1 with this due to WAA aloft.

 

I want 8:1 or less

[CentralNebWeather]

GEM is great here

[Money]

GEM

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012012&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Stormhunter87]

GEM

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012012&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

Wow that is a juiced run.

[Niko]

I'll accept GEM and run. No questions asked.

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie continues S

[Grizzcoat]

Precip wise Ukie similar to 06z Euro (for IA at least)

[Tom]

12z GEFS...

[Minny_Weather]

12z GEFS...

Wow those are all.... awful for here.

[james1976]

Looking great over here. Looks like a daytime event which would be nice to see!

[Hawkeye]

The UK may appear a bit farther south, but it has the heavy snow band in the same spot as the others... west-central to northeast Iowa.  It doesn't look good for CR/IC.

 

[hlcater]

The UK may appear a bit farther south, but it has the heavy snow band in the same spot as the others... west-central to northeast Iowa. It doesn't look good for CR/IC.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019012012_78_5660_220.png

 

The important part about it being south is that the R/S line is presumably further south as well. I still don’t care how much snow I get, all I care about is not getting rained on. Rain water logs and ruins a good snowpack. But the UK looks like it would *probably* be snow for CR/IC.

[dubuque473]

Hopefully...

[NH4NU]

Am I reading the EURO wrong? It appears to be at least 100 miles south at 48hrs? 

[CentralNebWeather]

Am I reading the EURO wrong? It appears to be at least 100 miles south at 48hrs?

I was just thinking the same thing. I compared today’s to yesterday and you are correct. Let’s see how that affects the snow amounts.

[NH4NU]

Whoa. I am excited to see the output on this. Track appears incredibly favorable for E. Nebraska. 

[Iowawx]

Whoa. I am excited to see the output on this. Track appears incredibly favorable for E. Nebraska. 

How does it look for Eastern Iowa? 

[jcwxguy]

Looking good, will post map in a minute

[NH4NU]

How does it look for Eastern Iowa? 

 

Appear to also be in a decent spot. Basically takes the Low from North Central Oklahoma through Kansas City on into southeastern Wiscy. 

[jcwxguy]

12z Euro

[NH4NU]

And things just got interesting folks!! 

[Iowawx]

12z Euro

Do you have close up map of Iowa? Looks good here

[jcwxguy]

Closer view

[gosaints]

Pretty hard cut

[james1976]

I wonder if watches will be hoisted later today

[Iowawx]

10-15 miles south puts CR in the heaviest band. Feeling good about this. Seems like the GFS is the only model that has not trended south today. 

[dubuque473]

This would be a daytime event for Iowa?

[Bryan1117]

Great trends for Eastern Nebraska today, I have to say you have to think the King might just be on to something... we are due for a decent snow storm here.