Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[Tom]

Who's ready for some more Snow???  Giddy up folks, Ol' Man Winter's Fury is not letting go as the models are showing some pretty remarkable run to run consistency that a rather potent hybrid Clipper to traverse the MW/GL's region late this weekend into the early part of next week.

 

Let's dive in and discuss...

 

First off, the 00z EPS/Control are in very good agreement that a slow, pivoting and strengthening system is to take an ideal track to lay down a potential significant snowfall for areas across the MW/Lower GL's region.  00z GEFS showing some monster hits.

[Niko]

Who's ready for some more Snow???  Giddy up folks, Ol' Man Winter's Fury is not letting go as the models are showing some pretty remarkable run to run consistency that a rather potent hybrid Clipper to traverse the MW/GL's region late this weekend into the early part of next week.

 

Let's dive in and discuss...

 

First off, the 00z EPS/Control are in very good agreement that a slow, pivoting and strengthening system is to take an ideal track to lay down a potential significant snowfall for areas across the MW/Lower GL's region.  00z GEFS showing some monster hits.

Its looking wild. This forecast reminds me of 2013-14' where we had frigid snowstorms. Speaking of frigid, my temps next week look insane w highs and lows.

[Minny_Weather]

This might be the first storm thread this whole season that I won't be a part of. What a Winter.

[gimmesnow]

This is crazy. I thought we were all doomed after that December.

[shakjen]

Never good to be in the bullseye this far out. The last 2 storms are good examples of that.

[Money]

12z gfs widespread 8-12 amounts from Minnesota to Chicago

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019012312&fh=132&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_024h&m=gfs

[james1976]

Sag south baby. If the cold can push then maybe it will.

[gosaints]

Sag south baby. If the cold can push then maybe it will.

Clippers a totally different ball game

[Money]

I will say models usually handle clipper systems better than storms that phase etc

 

And this storm has been showing up now for 3+ days

[Money]

Ukie at 120 has a 999 L in SW Iowa. 144 it’s over Northern MI

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120

[East Dubzz]

Has a clipper ever produced that much snow before?

[james1976]

Ukie at 120 has a 999 L in SW Iowa. 144 it’s over Northern MI

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120

I'd like to see precip.

Seems like a strange track for a clipper.

[james1976]

Has a clipper ever produced that much snow before?

I remember scoring some 6-8 clippers but not a foot

[Money]

Ratios on this should be really good

 

850’s really cold and temps in the 10-20 range

[Iowawx]

I hope this can trend just a bit south. Would love to get a decent snowfall from this.

[hlcater]

One thing going for this clipper-esque system is that it is sort of hybridized and has a connection to the gulf. The extra moisture coupled with extremely cold airmass on the cold/NE side of the system should allow for very good ratios, and perhaps over a foot of snow for someone if things come together right with the extra QPF coming from gulf moisture. The 12z GFS and FV3 don't have nearly as good of a moisture connection as it looks like the Euro does. It still has it, but doesn't connect to the gulf until later and isn't nearly as robust. Here is the GFS below.

 

[Tom]

Ukie at 120 has a 999 L in SW Iowa. 144 it’s over Northern MI

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120

That’s about where the 00z Euro had it in IA...the Hr144 map is prob 2 systems combined as it skirts the Lower Lakes.

[WBadgersW]

One thing going for this clipper-esque system is that it is sort of hybridized and has a connection to the gulf. The extra moisture coupled with extremely cold airmass on the cold/NE side of the system should allow for very good ratios, and perhaps over a foot of snow for someone if things come together right with the extra QPF coming from gulf moisture.

Clippers that tap into GOM moisture can lay down some serious snows. This one is gonna be fun tracking.

[james1976]

The further south route would pull more gulf moisture. I'd think a southern route would produce higher snows.

[hlcater]

I added some more stuff to the post above. The moisture connection doesn't look as good on the GFS as it did on the Euro.

[bud2380]

Canadian is further south.  Pivotal and TT are taking forever to load, so we get these maps today.

 

 

[Stacsh]

Has a clipper ever produced that much snow before?

 

On this side of Lake Michigan,  yes.  

[gosaints]

I remember scoring some 6-8 clippers but not a foot

Yes, and as was stated its more of a hybrid system not a true clipper.

 

 

[East Dubzz]

On this side of Lake Michigan,  yes.

 

No offense, but that’s not exactly what I was talking about.

[East Dubzz]

Yes, and as was stated its more of a hybrid system not a true clipper.

 

 

Still, have these “hybrid” clipper ever produced that much snow over such a wide area? I’m guessing people have seen 10+ in isolated areas from these hybrids, but that wide of a swath of heavy snows seems like a bit much. I’m sure someone will see some impressive snows, no doubt. Just not convinced it’ll be such a wide area seeing it. We shall see.

[gosaints]

Still, have these “hybrid” clipper ever produced that much snow over such a wide area? I’m guessing people have seen 10+ in isolated areas from these hybrids, but that wide of a swath of heavy snows seems like a bit much. I’m sure someone will see some impressive snows, no doubt. Just not convinced it’ll be such a wide area seeing it. We shall see.

They have produced impressive snows in the past yes.  They tend to be very efficient snow producers.  Obviously still a long ways out with this one however

[bud2380]

I definitely recall some pretty hefty "hybrid clippers".  A stated ratios are usually pretty impressive and the bands can drop some very heavy rates.  They are a lot of fun.  Might actually be my favorite type of snow producer if you are lucky enough to be in it's crosshairs.  

[bud2380]

Ukie

 

[jzuzphreek]

The further south route would pull more gulf moisture. I'd think a southern route would produce higher snows.

Let's bring this baby south!! Already 3 big (for me) snows in 2 weeks for this southern boy has been like a life-long dream come true!

[Money]

Gem crushes Chicago through Ohio with 1.2+ qpf

 

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019012312&fh=138

[bud2380]

10:1 ratios here which won't do it justice.  Wow.

 

[Clinton]

Gem crushes Chicago through Ohio with 1.2+ qpf

 

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019012312&fh=138

Its a beast, it lays snow down on 1/2 of the country.

[East Dubzz]

10:1 ratios here which won't do it justice. Wow.

 

I would not be against this happening...

[shakjen]

[james1976]

You would think this would be 15:1 at least.

[Iowawx]

This will be fun to watch. If we get what some models are showing, we will have a VERY deep snowpack here. 

[jaster220]

Has a clipper ever produced that much snow before?

 

No offense, but that’s not exactly what I was talking about.

 

Jan 2005's similar hybrid clipper was a legit bliz for SMI dropping 12-14" across SMI, even for Detroit. It was likely the last true bliz for Detroit proper. Iirc DTW scored 12.2" while Kalamazoo reported the 14" total. It can happen and that system was very similar to what models are showing. Just don't like my luck this winter. Bad to be in the bullseye. This has been the year of storms north and storms south, aside from the 2 systems 2 months between. 

[bud2380]

12z FV3

 

[Hawkeye]

As mentioned above, the more west/south it digs, the better for Iowa certainly.  That's what last night's euro did, allowing gulf moisture to be pulled in as it turned east.  If the snow band simply dives in from the nw it won't be quite as moist.

[GDR]

Long ways out!