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Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper


Tom

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right gonna need the late weekend storm to come through. Though we do have about 5 inches on the ground down here

 

There should be a few weak clippers/impulses even before the bigger system. GFS has 2 such systems. Shouldn't amount to more than 3" for any one location, but could lay down some snow in areas that need it. Speaking of which, if any of these decides to become more robust than currently projected(especially the one in the Sunday timeframe) I could absolutely see the bigger system trending south and probably a bit drier as well. 

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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There should be a few weak clippers/impulses even before the bigger system. GFS has 2 such systems. Shouldn't amount to more than 3" for any one location, but could lay down some snow in areas that need it. Speaking of which, if any of these decides to become more robust than currently projected(especially the one in the Sunday timeframe) I could absolutely see the bigger system trending south and probably a bit drier as well.

Doubt it

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I realize that, thanks. I'm saying I doubt it be warm enough at the surface for rain. Highs would have to be raised over 20 degrees to have liquid rain.

If the storm is strong enough and pulls enough warm air in with it, I wouldn’t doubt it happening. Don’t think it’ll be robust, but I’m guessing a storm pulling in this kind of moisture could bring some decent WAA with it.

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I know clippers are different than phasing storms, but the GFS caved to the euro this past system. I favor the Euro even in this clipper system

 

Unfortunately, clippers are The King's blind spot. It does much better with systems coming out of the SW, thus S Stream waves. Was a time the GGEM was most reliable for clippers due to their origination north of the border, but can't/won't trust GGEM for anything these days. GFS loves to hype the WAA element in every storm. In short, as per my prior "madness" post, tracking a clipper is a real dice-toss if you ask me. This thing will bounce worse than a dented ping-pong ball

 

Cone of uncertainty is easily 500 miles wide attm. UP of Mich down to S Indiana/Ohio :lol:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Personally, I think this will end up being a bunch of model hype. The strong storm, the record-level cold wave, blah blah blah.

 

CPC says "what storm" :lol:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Based on how it looks so far, wouldn’t be surprised to see the GFS go even further north.

 

Baroclinic zone is a bit south of 18z. Sfc low will track parallel to that, so I think it holds serve if not slightly south. Similar to 12z.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Pound town in central WI. It’s whatever if we miss out, but no thanks to the rain please.

 

At least it didn’t take another big jump north.

 

I hate to jinx stuff, but GFS was way north with the rain with this last storm. At one point, it had me getting all rain IIRC, and it was all snow in the end. Just watch closely, but this might be a trend for GFS.

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Yikes... don't like the GFS/UK at all.  I hope they are overdoing the ability of the low to cut across the deep snow pack.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Interested to know where it went between HR 96 & 120. Obviously further north than last run, but also further south than the GFS.

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Yikes... don't like the GFS/UK at all. I hope they are overdoing the ability of the low to cut across the deep snow pack.

Probably depends how strong it ends up being. I’m guessing it’s no coincidence that the stronger the model has the SLP (GFS > Ukie > GEM), the further north it has the storm going.

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Hold on.  The 00z UK is much better than it looks.  The 6-hr maps show the surface low diving through Sioux Falls to south-central Iowa, then it pivots and turns ene through Chicago.  It still dumps good snow over much of Iowa.

 

The 24-hr maps make it look like the low tracks from Sioux Falls to Chicago.  I hate 24-hr maps.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hold on. The 00z UK is much better than it looks. The 6-hr maps show the surface low diving through Sioux Falls to south-central Iowa, then it pivots and turns ene through Chicago. It still dumps good snow over much of Iowa.

I was wondering if that was the case, but it’s hard to tell with the 24 hr increments.

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00z euro differences..... tracks more directly southeast toward chicago vs digging south and then east... plus this run is quite a bit weaker with the low (up 10 mb from last night, up several from this morning)

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012400_132_5660_323.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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