February 2019 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

The 18th-20th should be a big one for me. I just hope we can avoid more ice, but when I look at the AO index I get a little concerned that the cold air may be a little shallow down here.

This. This. this. The teleconnections say that everything is dependent on remaining snowpack, residual cold from snowcover, etc like the last few rounds. I'm not even remotely "sold" on it or wish casting as some of our new critics have so eloquently asserted. I hope it happens though. My state needs snow.

[Niko]

Cloudy and cold attm w temps in the 20s. Smells like snow outside.

[Tom]

Skilling just said Chicago has had 31 straight days of precip and that is an all-time record. Pretty cool.

[Andie]

Well, 55*. Going down to 39*.

 

Pretty underwhelming, except I got my darn rain !

[Clinton]

GFS showing a very widespread snow on Sunday.

[Grizzcoat]

^-- not meant for you-- notjoebastardi

 

Gotta keep the hammer down ( talking more snow here in IA on the GFS)  on these weak souls whom care so little about winter weather. I'am the same with heat and humidity- This is OUR time-- there time is DONE!!!--  "Herb Brooks"

[Grizzcoat]

This pattern will have many complaining. Wanting to getting away like a Southwest  commercial -- I got a song for them-- (it dates me, but i could care less)

 

[Niko]

Current conditions are cloudy w temps in the 20s.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro control from HR 240 to 360 is quite active with several rounds of snow for many- but more importantly- it has an Upper Mississippi Shakedown at the end with 486 thickness entering NW MN-- 

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

Upper Mississipi Shakedown----  from MN's own- Pat Hayes better known as the Lamont Cranston Blues Band

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2otA4ZoCoJw

[Tom]

Taking a gander at all the data that I'm seeing, the second half of this month will prob have more cold and snow potential than the 1st half has delivered.  The expectations that the overall storm track shifts farther south looks to have merit and those in the central/southern plains/MW will finally be in line to track some winter storms.  This month has a real potential to finish off with a major shot of cold and reminiscent to Feb '14 as the entire North American pattern amplifies at the tail end of the month which fits the LRC quite well.  Where shall I begin???
 

If your fan of Winter to hang on into the month of March, well, you will like what I have to say because nearly every long range model is suggesting this winter will have legs.  In fact, some of the long range forecasting tools I use and have had a lot of success indicate that many up near the Upper MW/GL's will have snow OTG through the month of March.  If this pattern does in fact go to the extremem (which I believe it will), many will be waving the "white flag" by the time Spring arrives around the Spring Solstice.  Before we get into the "Merry Month of March", we have to get through February's Fury as mother nature shows who's boss. 

 

So, we have the SOI crashing today with a daily ready of -23.34 which is a prime indicator that the atmosphere is revving up and suggests to look for cold and an active storm pattern 1-2 weeks out.  Depending on how long the SOI maintains into the negative territory will dictate how furocious this pattern can last.

 

 

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -23.34

 

 

 

Last night's Euro Weeklies basically park a major trough across the west/central CONUS through the rest of this month and during the month of March.  It tries to show signs of letting up at the tail end of March for those who will be looking for signs of Spring.  Not only do we have the Euro Weeklies, but the CFSv2 weeklies have been steadily trending colder for the month of March as well.  Finally, we have the JMA monthlies that have came in and they also suggesting Spring will be delayed this year.  Check out the maps below for Mar-Apr and you will see an eerily similar pattern of which we saw last year.

[Tom]

Legit question: do you ever call for warmer or less snow? You may be the biggest wishcaster I see on all the forums I visit. That is really saying something — your bald a** should be proud.

Are you serious right now???  I provide more value on here than what you have done since you started posting.  In fact, this may be your last...adios!

[BMT]

Legit question: do you ever call for warmer or less snow? You may be the biggest wishcaster I see on all the forums I visit. That is really saying something — your bald a** should be proud.

Don't listen to the Troll Tom.  We appreciate the insights.  

[Hawkeye1]

Don't listen to the Troll Tom. We appreciate the insights.

Yes. Definitely agree! I certainly appreciate what you do on here!

[indianajohn]

Don't listen to the Troll Tom.  We appreciate the insights.  

Yea Tom I wouldn't even respond to any questions this kid has..... He is probably bored and aggravated that his Satellite dish is covered with ice and he is getting no signal to watch today's episodes of Mickey Mouse club house on the Disney Channel...

[hlcater]

Why is he even here? Just ban him for that kind of childish disrespect.

[CentralNebWeather]

Tom is one of the best posters on here.  He gives out good information using many maps to back up his posts.  You don't have to agree, but you should appreciate the work that he puts in.  

[SE Wisconsin]

Tom, I always enjoy your posts and appreciate your detailed analysis.  You do indeed bring a lot to this forum.  Most of the time you are spot on but some of the time you miss.  That's just the nature of the weather and dealing with Mother Nature.  Right or wrong, I will always appreciate the thought and analysis you put into your effort and always look forward to reading your posts.

[Tony]

Tom, I always enjoy your posts and appreciate your detailed analysis.  You do indeed bring a lot to this forum.  Most of the time you are spot on but some of the time you miss.  That's just the nature of the weather and dealing with Mother Nature.  Right or wrong, I will always appreciate the thought and analysis you put into your effort and always look forward to reading your posts.

I second that. Not sure why anyone would want to bash someone on here. We all just try to give our input and thoughts and for the most part we all get along. As far as wishcasting  was mentioned above, all of us on here would love to wish that every storm hits our backyard and nothing wrong with that but we also cheer on the ones that are getting hit and Tom has always been that cheerleader. This forum and it's posters are "second to none" in my opinion. Now back to "wishcasting"!!

[hlcater]

Tom is one of the best posters on here.  He gives out good information using many maps to back up his posts.  You don't have to agree, but you should appreciate the work that he puts in.  

 

Yea. I don't agree with some of the stuff he says, but he still presents data and has informative posts. You don't have to interpret it as optimistically as he does.

[Tom]

Thanks everyone for the support. I’m a pretty leniant guy in here and I can take a “jab” but what was said today crossed the line, esp when he dissed our members. It doesn’t sit right with me. I’ll have iFred handle it from here.

[westMJim]

Thanks everyone for the support. I’m a pretty leniant guy in here and I can take a “jab” but what was said today crossed the line, esp when he dissed our members. It doesn’t sit right with me. I’ll have iFred handle it from here.

Tom I not only post on this site but I also post and do a weekly blog.Sort of what used to be a newspaper column back in the old days once a week on a local west Michigan site.. Anyway on the site we also have comments and there is one person who kind of does the same thing (I only brought this up because the poster in question claimed to be form west Michigan) anyway this person (may not be the same one) has done the same on that site he/she claims to be from the Grand Rapids area but I don’t think they are, If you know their IP address you can get a good hint. Anyway one of the main reasons I post on this site is the knowledge that Tom puts into this site. Thanks for all the hard work you do.

[VMB443]

Thanks everyone for the support. I’m a pretty leniant guy in here and I can take a “jab” but what was said today crossed the line, esp when he dissed our members. It doesn’t sit right with me. I’ll have iFred handle it from here.

I don’t post much because my weather knowledge is only so deep but I always look forward to your morning posts because I learn a ton - you help drive this board - that other guy, I don’t know - that guy has problems.

[jaster220]

Tom I not only post on this site but I also post and do a weekly blog.Sort of what used to be a newspaper column back in the old days once a week on a local west Michigan site.. Anyway on the site we also have comments and there is one person who kind of does the same thing (I only brought this up because the poster in question claimed to be form west Michigan) anyway this person (may not be the same one) has done the same on that site he/she claims to be from the Grand Rapids area but I don’t think they are, If you know their IP address you can get a good hint. Anyway one of the main reasons I post on this site is the knowledge that Tom puts into this site. Thanks for all the hard work you do.

 

And it's zero coincidence said poster's screen name is a dead give-away that they are NOT a fan of winter/ a certain LR forecaster/snow, etc, etc..

 

Tom's our man scoping and scanning the digital horizon for future (LR) patterns and potentials. It's an important part of why I like this sub vs other places. You can find posters everywhere who track current systems and do the play-by-play with each model suite. Very few tackle the LR stuff like he does! 

[jcwxguy]

12z euro run is stormy fwiw, reminds me of the ggem a few days ago

[hlcater]

^That's acceptable.

[Minny_Weather]

12z euro run is stormy fwiw, reminds me of the ggem a few days ago

******* hell only 16"???? #wintercancel

[Tom]

My goodness, if you want to see what FEET of snow looks like...check out these photos from Squaw Valley and surrounding mountain resorts....

 

https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/tahoe-sierra-snow-total-pictures-truckee-blizzard-13607619.php?utm_campaign=CMS%20Sharing%20Tools%20(Desktop)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral#photo-16915643

[Minny_Weather]

Hawaii had accumulating snow down to 6200 feet earlier. It's rare to get accumulating snow below 10,000 feet on the big island.

[WBadgersW]

Man, I just wished we could build a solid snowpack. It seems to always melt within a week. High of 40 with rain on Thursday.

[Stormy]

Tom....I enjoy your posts and insights & really appreciate your upbeat and positive attitude. Not buttering you up. Just stating the facts.

[Niko]

So, is this clown done already. Geez!

[Minny_Weather]

Did our lil troll strike again? I see he has been banned. Thanks Fred.

[Niko]

Current conditions are reporting snow and turning sharply colder later on w temps at 32F right now. Winds will be picking up, causing blowing and falling snow. Radar looks great.

[East Dubzz]

Did our lil troll strike again? I see he has been banned. Thanks Fred.

Welcome

 

I understand sometimes posters will get confrontational on these boards, and that is fine. However, when that’s all you post, that just can’t happen. Sometimes we all let our emotions get the best of us and may get a little mad online, but trolling and mocking someone who puts a lot of effort into what they do such as Tom, even if you disagree, just isn’t acceptable.

 

I really enjoy this board, and hopefully we can keep the trolls away, because they do nothing but make me read more pointless posts when I’m probably on here more than I should be as it is

[Minny_Weather]

Welcome

 

I understand sometimes posters will get confrontational on these boards, and that is fine. However, when that’s all you post, that just can’t happen. Sometimes we all let our emotions get the best of us and may get a little mad online, but trolling and mocking someone who puts a lot of effort into what they do such as Tom, even if you disagree, just isn’t acceptable.

 

I really enjoy this board, and hopefully we can keep the trolls away, because they do nothing but make me read more pointless posts when I’m probably on here more than I should be as it is

I just got an insightful PM saying "You're an a**" from this person. This has completely made me re-think everything in my life. I am now going to curl up in the fetal position in the corner of my bedroom until I die and rot because I have just been called an a** by a basement dweller /s.

 

Glad he's been dealt with.

 

Edit: It was under the name "WeatherDude2019." Guessing it's the same person. Gotta have a pretty sad life to be that devoted to trolling a weather hobbyist board.

[Minny_Weather]

Also Tom, I have the utmost respect for the time you devote to this board. I, as well as most other members of this board, never get sick of your positivity. Keep up the great work man!

[Grizzcoat]

Snow records falling in MN/WI

 

https://www.weather.gov/mpx/snowymonth

[Tom]

After the major mid-winter SSW disruption, the PV has re-energized and taken up shop over the pole resulting in a +AO and cold arctic since early/mid January.  As a result, high lat blocking has been lack luster but the cold North American pattern has been largely driven by the -EPO and favorable N PAC pattern.  You guys know that I'm a big believer in the cyclical nature of our weather pattern at 500mb, but I think it also cycles in the Stratosphere.  Let me explain....

 

Back in late December, we saw the beginning of a major warming event at both 10mb/30mb as you can see in the maps below...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

 

 

Having said that, fast forward 50 days and we will be entering that period in about 5 days or so and wouldn't ya know it, the 00z GFS is predicting a mini SSW disruption over the same region near Siberia Day 4-5...you can already see the Siberian warming at 10mb in the maps below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If we look beyond this period towards Day 10-15, I'm starting to see an anomalous look as the 10mb flow will become Cross Polar towards the end of the month and to open up March.  This follows up with my opinion we will open March like a Lion this year and it may roar for quite a while next month.

 

 

What usually happens during these SSW events, the pattern may try to warm up for a brief period and I'm expecting that to happen between the Day 6+-10 period and I'll be looking for a hard cutter which isn't exactly what we would like to see, however, once we get past that period you can rest assure the pattern reloads with arctic cold to close out the month.  I feel pretty confident about this and the "warmer" period post Day 7.

[Tom]

As the sun rises, it's nice to see a fresh coating of snow even though about 1.0-1.5" of powder fell overnight which provides that winter-feel again.  Temps have crashed into the low 10's (+11F) and it feels darn cold outside.  I can only imagine what the scenery looks like to those out W/NW who got hit by the storm.  I'm sure the drifts are pretty deep from those strong winds yesterday.