February 2019 Observations and Discussion

[hlcater]

Euro says four straight days above to well-above freezing(even at night) ending with a strong, mild, rainy system.  If this actually verifies, I don't think we'll have much snow left.  We had better enjoy what we have now.  

The euro would also promote some sort of severe setup across the OV/South verbatim.

[gimmesnow]

GFS has been overstating rain, but I don't like Euro jumping in on it. It's still a week away, I hope this rain goes away. Our base is really light and powdery, it's going to thin out fast.

[Iowawx]

Wow. Thats a big rainmaker one week from today on the 18Z GFS. I sure hope that can fall as snow. Still a week out though. 

[GDR]

Wow the 18z has some bowling ball type systems

[GDR]

[hlcater]

Wow. Thats a big rainmaker one week from today on the 18Z GFS. I sure hope that can fall as snow. Still a week out though. 

 

Surface low will have to cut to our east for that to happen, but the overall pattern says no. Looks like a warm cutter is favored, unfortunately. But you cant deny we had a good run. 4 weeks of solid snowcover. 

[Minny_Weather]

Yuck. That GFS run turned the Super Bowl storm into a Super Bowel storm. Complete rainer here with a bit of backside snow.

[St Paul Storm]

Low 60s in Chicago on the 12z Euro?? Still a ways out but wow.

[Niko]

What is up w that milder air coming next weekend( 40s w rain). Not sure I buy that just yet.

[snowstorm83]

A quick warm up and rainer seems unrealistic, but possible.

 

For example Jan 2014 in Chicago - 

Jan 6: -2/-16

Jan 10: 40/27 (0.80" of rain)

Jan 11-13: Highs in the low to mid 40s

[Minny_Weather]

Honestly, I'll take rain at this point over dryness. I'd rather see this crustpack die instantly than die a slow, painful death like it has started to over the past couple days.

[gimmesnow]

A quick warm up and rainer seems unrealistic, but possible.

 

For example Jan 2014 in Chicago - 

Jan 6: -2/-16

Jan 10: 40/27 (0.80" of rain)

Jan 11-13: Highs in the low to mid 40s

 

I was just gonna say this felt familiar. Tons of snow, frigid cold, too much for me to snowmobile. Then it warms up and all goes away.

[Niko]

Would hate to get rain next weekend when such a beautiful, deep snowpack will be laying on the ground. Hopefully, Ma Nature will change her thinking and provide the goods instead.

[Tom]

A quick warm up and rainer seems unrealistic, but possible.

 

For example Jan 2014 in Chicago - 

Jan 6: -2/-16

Jan 10: 40/27 (0.80" of rain)

Jan 11-13: Highs in the low to mid 40s

I remember those days vividly.  People in downtown Chicago were having dinner outside on the sidewalks!  #heatwave

[Grizzcoat]

Most - if not ALL - of your record breaking Arctic , Nanoook of the North air discharges are followed by very mild air rather quickly. After the record 1996 FEB BLAST, 3-4 days later many locations were in the 40's and DSM was 53F on 9th and 39F on the 6th.  That year it remained mild the rest of FEB. This year I would be greatly concerned about what is lurking after that warm up. See the 06Z GFS for Feb 9-10th etc.

[Clinton]

3 storms showing up in the first 10 days of Feb, very active!

[Tom]

Most - if not ALL - of your record breaking Arctic , Nanoook of the North air discharges are followed by very mild air rather quickly. After the record 1996 FEB BLAST, 3-4 days later many locations were in the 40's and DSM was 53F on 9th and 39F on the 6th.  That year it remained mild the rest of FEB. This year I would be greatly concerned about what is lurking after that warm up. See the 06Z GFS for Feb 9-10th etc.

These analogs are great to use for the post - PV visit, but need not to worry so much once we get past the warm period...sure, it will get warm for a period but the amount of high lat blocking should be the saving grace and push the warmth across the EC/SE.  The pattern forthcoming is going to favor a lot of those across the Plains and into the Heartland/GL's after the brief warm up coming around the 3rd-5th period. I'm seeing a very active pattern with distinct and magnified SW Flow, of which, we have not really seen and reminds me of the early Feb pattern we had last year.

[Tom]

I'm not sure where to begin but the long range pattern is primed for storm action and an extremely active SW Flow pattern which begins around the Super Bowl period.  Needless to say, our sub forum will remain in the hot spot of tracking winter storms as we progress through the 1st half of this month.  I'm really impressed with how the models (ensembles specifically) are handling the PNA and the high lat blocking.  I'm encouraged to see all the models trend towards an impressive -PNA over the next couple weeks which I outlined off the GEFS 10mb hieght maps the models would flip to and they sure are heading that way.

 

Check out the 00z EPS PNA charts and they also show a good signal for a -AO/-NAO/-EPO, all of which, favor for arctic cold to penetrate down the leeward side of the Rockies and flood the central CONUS with cold and create a distinct and favorable storm track out of the SW into the GL's/OV.  

 

I've seen the models illustrate a similar look in years past and the more I dig into and analyze the pattern this month, we are in for quite a wild ride.  Check out the 00z GEFS maps below and one will quickly get an idea that our sub will remain in the midst of all the action.  Quite a wet signal and temp gradient pattern setting up.  

 

 

[Tom]

This is an impressive cold looking forecast off the CFSv2 and it is also trending wetter across the Plains which I believe will fill in as we get closer in time.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201902.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201902.gif

[james1976]

GFS with a blizzard around the 10th. Too bad its fantasy range! Incredible looking

[Clinton]

GFS with a blizzard around the 10th. Too bad its fantasy range! Incredible looking

With the AO forecasted to go well in the negative it might just happen.

[Niko]

I don't wanna go ahead of myself, but March is looking cold and stormy, at least through mid month or so.

[Hawkeye]

The 00z euro backed off the extent of the warmup the first few days of February.  There will certainly be some melting.  I just want to avoid a blowtorch.

[Niko]

The 00z euro backed off the extent of the warmup the first few days of February.  There will certainly be some melting.  I just want to avoid a blowtorch.

Awesome news. I don't mind a slight warm-up (30s at most), but to get rain, will definitely harm my snowpack.

[St Paul Storm]

First few days of February looking interesting. Large storm traversing the forum with rain south and snow north on several models.

[hlcater]

This is an impressive cold looking forecast off the CFSv2 and it is also trending wetter across the Plains which I believe will fill in as we get closer in time.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201902.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201902.gif

 

The EPS is also cold after an Early February thaw. Though its nearly an opposite mirror of the CFS 

 

[jaster220]

Most - if not ALL - of your record breaking Arctic , Nanoook of the North air discharges are followed by very mild air rather quickly. After the record 1996 FEB BLAST, 3-4 days later many locations were in the 40's and DSM was 53F on 9th and 39F on the 6th.  That year it remained mild the rest of FEB. This year I would be greatly concerned about what is lurking after that warm up. See the 06Z GFS for Feb 9-10th etc.

 

Why '78 stands out as amazing. It actually got colder that entire month of Feb following the Mega-bomb and PV visit

[Madtown]

hows the Feb 3rd look for the northwoods of Wi.?

[East Dubzz]

hows the Feb 3rd look for the northwoods of Wi.?

Depends what model you look at. But too far away to know anything right now for sure.

[Minny_Weather]

FV3 is all rain for everyone on here except Beltrami. SPS sees ZR for a bit.

[BrianJK]

hows the Feb 3rd look for the northwoods of Wi.?

Trails are doing pretty good right now. Solid base down with some new snow on top. What area are you going to be in?

[Madtown]

Trails are doing pretty good right now. Solid base down with some new snow on top. What area are you going to be in?

Boulder, Manitowish, Mercer, st Germain if conditions south are good

[Snowshoe]

Boulder, Manitowish, Mercer, st Germain if conditions south are good

St. Germain radar run is that weekend. Trails will be busy. Ride safe!

[Madtown]

we're going up next Wed. Feb 6th never ride on weekends!

[BrianJK]

Chicago may not drop below freezing all weekend long.

[Tom]

Once we get past the bitter and historic cold, nature will snap out of this extremely frigid pattern and lead us into a "brief" warm spell for those who end up in the "warm sector" of the next storm on deck late this weekend into early next week.  Following this system, the pattern is ripe for "cutter season" as favorable conditions evolve which place the majority of our sub in an active storm track over the next 2 weeks. 

 

I have 3 storms on the calendar over the next 2 weeks (3rd-5th), (6th-8th) and the (10th-12th)....all, of which, have a "cutter" look to them as the SER locks and will pay dividends this month.  I have adamantly stated, that the models would trend towards a -PNA pattern and the forthcoming period will be one, of which, could lay down a "Heartland Glacier" throughout this month.  It starts later next week once we get past the warm cutter and the cold/arctic air begins to press.  Meanwhile, the temp/baroclinic zone heightens and we will see several systems coming out of the SW.

 

Meantime, before we set our sights on the warm spell, there is a sneaky little wave the models are showing develop as we open up the month across the MW.  Some places on Thu/Fri may sneak out a couple inches of snow across IA/IL/IN/OH.  Several models, along with enesemble support, are indicating a healthy wave develop right where the LRC's Long Term Long Wave trough has developed and where systems energize.  It's fascinating watching the models continue to show signals that the MW and up into the GL's has been near the epicenter of action this season and we are in for quite a wild ridge this month.

 

06z GFS...for the late week system...if models continue through today's 12z run, we should prob start a thread for this one as I think it will impact enough members on here.

 

 

 

06z FV3...

 

 

06z NAM...

 

[Tom]

Boy, the signal is there, that this month will have a very favorable SER that could last the entire month.  You guys know I use this LR techinque and it has proven to be very useful.  Check out the warming across the southern states and the "look" it creates across the CONUS.  I mean, this is all very fascinating to me and provides me with LR clues.  For instance, look at the warmth that blossoms in East Asia around the 20th through the end of this animation...this suggests that there would be a "ridge" that would develop 2-3 weeks later.  Low and behold, check out the latest GEFS 500mb pattern during this aforementioned period below....strikingly similar placement where the warming is happening at 10mb and where the model is seeing the Ridge pop.  This will all translate into an EC/SER in the extended period for our Sub Forum and one hellova storm track!

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

 

 

[Clinton]

I have been looking forward to this part of the pattern all season.  I had really hoped the pattern would have reacted this way at the end of Dec, but this will be well worth the wait.  It's looking like I will be to warm for the first system as I think northern Neb, S. Dakota, and Minn will catch that one.  However systems 2 and 3 are in play and I think conditions could be favorable for blizzard conditions for those in the path of systems 2 and 3.

[Tom]

I have been looking forward to this part of the pattern all season. I had really hoped the pattern would have reacted this way at the end of Dec, but this will be well worth the wait. It's looking like I will be to warm for the first system as I think northern Neb, S. Dakota, and Minn will catch that one. However systems 2 and 3 are in play and I think conditions could be favorable for blizzard conditions for those in the path of systems 2 and 3.

Agree, this month will have plentiful Big Dogs IMHO, esp when the strong systems cycle through. I should have done better with the Dec bust as I’ve learned in seasons past, the LRC usually shines every other cycle. Meaning, if the LRC cycle #1 delivered, usually cycle # 3 will deliver even more. While we will be in the midst of the “heart” of Winter and the jet streams max energy potential, I can see atmospheric fireworks this month.

[Madtown]

normal temps work for me