Polite Politics

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tampon Tim

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tampon Tim

 

To to clarify Tampon Tim as in Walz. Not the Harris spokesperson who posts here.

[Hoosier]

Vance was out there earlier today talking about the stolen valor thing.  

[Hoosier]

A Vance-Walz debate could be more interesting than typical vp debates.  I have a feeling that there might be some personal animosity built up by then.

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

When Kamala Harris emerged as the Democratic presidential nominee, I expressed cautious optimism that she had learned from her disastrous 2020 campaign, which revolved around placating left-wing activists by adopting highly unpopular issue positions. The data point that seemed most compelling was her rumored slate of vice-presidential selections, which consisted of Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, and Andy Beshear of Kentucky — the three most moderate governors in the party. “What this leak indicates,” I wrote, “is that Harris understands the assignment.”

But … does she? Her decision to pick Tim Walz, while not completely irrational, makes me much more cautious and less optimistic that Harris does understand the assignment.

The assignment, to be clear, is to win over voters who don’t like Donald Trump but worry Harris is too liberal.

Harris brings important strengths as a candidate. Polling has indicated that the perception she is too far left is Harris’s greatest vulnerability.

Intelligent Republicans recognize this and have tried to focus the Trump campaign on the left-wing positions Harris endorsed in her previous campaign. Of course, “intelligent Republicans” is a category that excludes the Republican presidential nominee, who has instead trained his message on a series of personal attacks and racist tropes.

So, clearly, Harris does not need to run a perfect campaign to beat Trump. But at the moment, she is in a toss-up environment, and every inch counts.

Does Walz help her gain those inches? I don’t believe he does. Rather than being one of the most moderate governors in America, he is one of the most liberal, and possibly the most liberal, which is why he became a hero to the far left in recent days. Walz is not a leftist, but he has adopted some unpopular positions, like providing free health care to unauthorized immigrants.

Progressive activists hold a view that the key to winning elections is to energize the base by taking ideologically pure positions. Without devoting the space necessary to litigate this belief, I’d note that it is deeply at odds with the evidence I’ve seen and also reflects a mirror-image belief held by right-wing activists.

Political activists always insist that the party they’re affiliated with will be hurt by moving to the center on policy. They need to claim this in order to have political leverage. It’s tempting to believe because it means you don’t have to worry about trade-offs between your preferences and winning. (To be clear, many of my own political preferences, which are well to the left of the median voter, are also unpopular.)

But it is easy to see how silly these base-mobilization arguments look when you view them from the opposing side. Before the Republican National Convention, Marjorie Dannenfelser, an anti-abortion activist, warned, “If the Trump campaign decides to remove national protections for the unborn in the GOP platform, it would be a miscalculation that would hurt party unity and destroy pro-life enthusiasm between now and the election.”

Trump ignored this warning and softened the abortion plank. Does anybody believe the party became disunified? Has the enthusiasm of the conservative base dimmed? No, it was a smart move to reduce the party’s exposure to unpopular positions.

A somewhat modified version of the left’s belief that moving left can increase political viability is that personal style can make up for a deficit in substance. Rather than move to the center on policy, they hope nominating candidates with a reassuring personal affect and personal biography can reassure moderate voters.

Walz generates so much enthusiasm on the left in part because he represents the apotheosis of this strategy. He is jolly, fun, a rural veteran and former football coach with a personal comfort with white rural voters.

There is probably something to this theory. If Harris had nominated a pink-haired professor from Brooklyn with a centrist voting record, that candidate probably would not provide a huge political heft.

But at the end of the day, issue positioning matters a lot. There is a reason Walz is less popular in a light-blue state than Josh Shapiro is in a purple state — indeed, when Walz shared a ballot in his own state with the moderate Amy Klobuchar, her victory margin (24 points) was more than double his (11.4 points). It’s not because Walz is less likable than Shapiro or Klobuchar. It’s because he’s less moderate.

Walz had a fairly conservative voting record in Congress, where he represented a red district. He used that record to win the governorship, and then moved sharply left. The lesson he seems to have taken from this experience is that there is no cost in adopting progressive positions across the board. “Don’t ever shy away from our progressive values,” Walz said on a recent call. “One person’s socialism is another person’s neighborliness.”

I can’t emphasize enough what a bad idea this is. On issues where progressive values are unpopular, and there are several, Democrats should definitely shy away from progressive values. For example, their stance on socialism, which is an extremely unpopular concept, should not be to liken it to neighborliness, but to say it’s bad and promise not to do it.

The good news in all this is that vice-presidential candidates generally have little effect on election outcomes. Walz probably won’t hurt Harris much, if at all.

What the selection does, however, is forfeit her best opportunity to send a message that she is a moderate. She needs to take every possible opportunity between now and November to make up for that. Harris needs to adopt positions that will upset progressive activists. She needs to specifically understand that the likelihood a given action or statement will create complaints on the left is a reason to do something, rather than a reason not to.

Harris has a ton of momentum, but she is currently in a toss-up election. I don’t want to bet the future of this country on a coin toss. I want to build a political coalition with a clear majority. There’s still work to be done here, and I can only hope that Harris sees it clearly.

Sign up for &

And what snarky question are you asking by sending this article?  How center?

The guy won a district that Trump won by double digits.  1 of 4 in the country that happened in 2016.  That says a lot.  He has broad appeal and that shows when he's talking.  MAGA talks about helping the little guy (because it's an appealing talking point) but says nothing specific that will actually help them. 

Walz has showed what can done to help the little guy through legislation and communicates it well in real-time.  Hence my comment about how he should be "front and center" in the campaign. 

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

And what snarky question are you asking by sending this article?  How center?

The guy won a district that Trump won by double digits.  1 of 4 in the country that happened in 2016.  That says a lot.  He has broad appeal and that shows when he's talking.  MAGA talks about helping the little guy (because it's an appealing talking point) but says nothing specific that will actually help them. 

Walz has showed what can done to help the little guy through legislation and communicates it well in real-time.  Hence my comment about how he should be "front and center" in the campaign. 

The point of the article, written by a Democrat, is that unless Harris/Walz pivot more towards center, they run the risk of alienating a lot of people in the middle who don't want to vote for a super progressive ticket.

It's looking like Harris/Walz is doubling down on heavy left, which of course is pleasing to folks like yourself, but not necessarily the best chance of winning.

[GHweatherChris]

Harri's/Balz

[Hoosier]

Anyone else notice how Harris has kind of shifted away from the threat to democracy line of attack and more toward "freedom" and "we're not going back"? 

Just one of those things that I picked up on.  I don't think the constant "threat to democracy" stuff was working as well as they hoped anyway, because Trump was still generally in the lead even before Biden's bad debate.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

32 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

And what snarky question are you asking by sending this article?  How center?

The guy won a district that Trump won by double digits.  1 of 4 in the country that happened in 2016.  That says a lot.  He has broad appeal and that shows when he's talking.  MAGA talks about helping the little guy (because it's an appealing talking point) but says nothing specific that will actually help them. 

Walz has showed what can done to help the little guy through legislation and communicates it well in real-time.  Hence my comment about how he should be "front and center" in the campaign. 

The article covers (and refutes) the point above about his Congressional record. He’s moved left since then.

It’s a valid point. Walz is (note present tense) a liberal and not a moderate. That is something of a risk.

An insurmountable one? No, and the article mentions that, too. Walz is very much the sort of running mate I would have hoped Harris would choose in a less big-stakes election than this one. Walz is a “go big or go home” choice; it could very well pay off, because he is as I have already mentioned an effective propagandist for progressive ideas. But there is also a risk.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Anyone else notice how Harris has kind of shifted away from the threat to democracy line of attack and more toward "freedom" and "we're not going back"? 

Just one of those things that I picked up on.  I don't think the constant "threat to democracy" stuff was working as well as they hoped anyway, because Trump was still generally in the lead even before Biden's bad debate.

There was an article on Politico about this a couple weeks ago. Focus groups showed the punches were not landing. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

The point of the article, written by a Democrat, is that unless Harris/Walz pivot more towards center, they run the risk of alienating a lot of people in the middle who don't want to vote for a super progressive ticket.

It's looking like Harris/Walz is doubling down on heavy left, which of course is pleasing to folks like yourself, but not necessarily the best chance of winning.

IMO, actual progressive policies are far more popular than the word progressivism.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/sanders-poll-quiz/

Dems need a communicator czar and he fits the bill.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Anyone else notice how Harris has kind of shifted away from the threat to democracy line of attack and more toward "freedom" and "we're not going back"? 

Just one of those things that I picked up on.  I don't think the constant "threat to democracy" stuff was working as well as they hoped anyway, because Trump was still generally in the lead even before Biden's bad debate.

The freedom line is one I’ve wished the Democrats would embrace for a very long time, and I am glad to finally see it being done.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The freedom line is one I’ve wished the Democrats would embrace for a very long time, and I am glad to finally see it being done.

The freedom for a teacher to transition your 13 year old without your knowledge! 

Edited August 7 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

When Kamala Harris emerged as the Democratic presidential nominee, I expressed cautious optimism that she had learned from her disastrous 2020 campaign, which revolved around placating left-wing activists by adopting highly unpopular issue positions. The data point that seemed most compelling was her rumored slate of vice-presidential selections, which consisted of Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, and Andy Beshear of Kentucky — the three most moderate governors in the party. “What this leak indicates,” I wrote, “is that Harris understands the assignment.”

But … does she? Her decision to pick Tim Walz, while not completely irrational, makes me much more cautious and less optimistic that Harris does understand the assignment.

The assignment, to be clear, is to win over voters who don’t like Donald Trump but worry Harris is too liberal.

Harris brings important strengths as a candidate. Polling has indicated that the perception she is too far left is Harris’s greatest vulnerability.

Intelligent Republicans recognize this and have tried to focus the Trump campaign on the left-wing positions Harris endorsed in her previous campaign. Of course, “intelligent Republicans” is a category that excludes the Republican presidential nominee, who has instead trained his message on a series of personal attacks and racist tropes.

So, clearly, Harris does not need to run a perfect campaign to beat Trump. But at the moment, she is in a toss-up environment, and every inch counts.

Does Walz help her gain those inches? I don’t believe he does. Rather than being one of the most moderate governors in America, he is one of the most liberal, and possibly the most liberal, which is why he became a hero to the far left in recent days. Walz is not a leftist, but he has adopted some unpopular positions, like providing free health care to unauthorized immigrants.

Progressive activists hold a view that the key to winning elections is to energize the base by taking ideologically pure positions. Without devoting the space necessary to litigate this belief, I’d note that it is deeply at odds with the evidence I’ve seen and also reflects a mirror-image belief held by right-wing activists.

Political activists always insist that the party they’re affiliated with will be hurt by moving to the center on policy. They need to claim this in order to have political leverage. It’s tempting to believe because it means you don’t have to worry about trade-offs between your preferences and winning. (To be clear, many of my own political preferences, which are well to the left of the median voter, are also unpopular.)

But it is easy to see how silly these base-mobilization arguments look when you view them from the opposing side. Before the Republican National Convention, Marjorie Dannenfelser, an anti-abortion activist, warned, “If the Trump campaign decides to remove national protections for the unborn in the GOP platform, it would be a miscalculation that would hurt party unity and destroy pro-life enthusiasm between now and the election.”

Trump ignored this warning and softened the abortion plank. Does anybody believe the party became disunified? Has the enthusiasm of the conservative base dimmed? No, it was a smart move to reduce the party’s exposure to unpopular positions.

A somewhat modified version of the left’s belief that moving left can increase political viability is that personal style can make up for a deficit in substance. Rather than move to the center on policy, they hope nominating candidates with a reassuring personal affect and personal biography can reassure moderate voters.

Walz generates so much enthusiasm on the left in part because he represents the apotheosis of this strategy. He is jolly, fun, a rural veteran and former football coach with a personal comfort with white rural voters.

There is probably something to this theory. If Harris had nominated a pink-haired professor from Brooklyn with a centrist voting record, that candidate probably would not provide a huge political heft.

But at the end of the day, issue positioning matters a lot. There is a reason Walz is less popular in a light-blue state than Josh Shapiro is in a purple state — indeed, when Walz shared a ballot in his own state with the moderate Amy Klobuchar, her victory margin (24 points) was more than double his (11.4 points). It’s not because Walz is less likable than Shapiro or Klobuchar. It’s because he’s less moderate.

Walz had a fairly conservative voting record in Congress, where he represented a red district. He used that record to win the governorship, and then moved sharply left. The lesson he seems to have taken from this experience is that there is no cost in adopting progressive positions across the board. “Don’t ever shy away from our progressive values,” Walz said on a recent call. “One person’s socialism is another person’s neighborliness.”

I can’t emphasize enough what a bad idea this is. On issues where progressive values are unpopular, and there are several, Democrats should definitely shy away from progressive values. For example, their stance on socialism, which is an extremely unpopular concept, should not be to liken it to neighborliness, but to say it’s bad and promise not to do it.

The good news in all this is that vice-presidential candidates generally have little effect on election outcomes. Walz probably won’t hurt Harris much, if at all.

What the selection does, however, is forfeit her best opportunity to send a message that she is a moderate. She needs to take every possible opportunity between now and November to make up for that. Harris needs to adopt positions that will upset progressive activists. She needs to specifically understand that the likelihood a given action or statement will create complaints on the left is a reason to do something, rather than a reason not to.

Harris has a ton of momentum, but she is currently in a toss-up election. I don’t want to bet the future of this country on a coin toss. I want to build a political coalition with a clear majority. There’s still work to be done here, and I can only hope that Harris sees it clearly.

Sign up for &

Very nice post

[SnarkyGoblin]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The freedom for a teacher to transition your 13 year old without your knowledge! 

Tell us more about your brain-rot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SnarkyGoblin said:

Tell us more about your brain-rot.

Why is it ok to remove a 15 year olds breasts. Weird 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The freedom for a teacher to transition your 13 year old without your knowledge! 

Stop lying. That simply isn’t happening.

[Front Ranger]

31 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

IMO, actual progressive policies are far more popular than the word progressivism.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/sanders-poll-quiz/

Dems need a communicator czar and he fits the bill.

Call it what you want. The risk is real that a majority of Americans view Harris/Walz as too far left.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Stop lying. That simply isn’t happening.

Of course it is. It’s now illegal in California for teachers to even tell the parents. Talk about a betrayal of public trust. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Of course it is. It’s now illegal in California for teachers to even tell the parents. Talk about a betrayal of public trust. 

Transitioning is more than just trying out a new name or pronoun.

[Winterdog]

4 hours ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I let medical professionals determine what is appropriate. 

Not someone who professionally lives under a bridge.

Similar to the failed argument for mandated covid shots.  Plenty of "medical professionals" condemning trans-surgeries on young kids.  Likely many more afraid to voice their opinion on the subject just like what happened with the Covid 19 debacle.

[Groundhog]

Vance wonders over to reporters meant for Harris. He said what needed to be said to a servile media.

 

[TT-SEA]

34 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

Vance wonders over to reporters meant for Harris. He said what needed to be said to a servile media.

 

I am very close to there right now!

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Anyone else notice how Harris has kind of shifted away from the threat to democracy line of attack and more toward "freedom" and "we're not going back"? 

Just one of those things that I picked up on.  I don't think the constant "threat to democracy" stuff was working as well as they hoped anyway, because Trump was still generally in the lead even before Biden's bad debate.

The end of democracy is a doom and gloom message.   It's just like Trump's message.   People will gravitate towards optimistism every time.   It's a wise choice.   Trump would be well advised to follow suit.  But he won't.  

Our family reunion is hilarious.   Two of my wife's three brothers sound just like Trump... world is ending if Kamala wins.  And they shake their head at Trump's inability to stay on message.   One of them does a spot on impression of Trump.  He also bought the lake house we are at specifically in Wisconsin to get away from Minnesota politics.   We are having fun though.   I can trash Trump and they take it with humor.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

Vance wonders over to reporters meant for Harris. He said what needed to be said to a servile media.

 

Wow! Lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Republicans relieved that Tampon Tim is the pick! 
 

https://thehill.com/homenews/4814385-gop-anxieties-tim-walz-vp-kamala-harris/

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Republicans relieved that Tampon Tim is the pick! 
 

https://thehill.com/homenews/4814385-gop-anxieties-tim-walz-vp-kamala-harris/

Excellent. Now go hump a sofa in celebration.

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Republicans relieved that Tampon Tim is the pick! 
 

https://thehill.com/homenews/4814385-gop-anxieties-tim-walz-vp-kamala-harris/

Says something when people on both sides believe it could be a tactical error. Picking someone more moderate from a key battleground state just made more sense.

But...maybe it won't matter. Maybe people will vote for Harris/Walz just cause it's not Trump, they represent change (sorta), the mainstream media is all fluff and love festy, and they come across as nicer?

Ultimately, it will still be a tough sell if the economy continues to weaken.

[Mercurial]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/06/market-sell-off-democrats-harris-00172740
 

Kamala Crash continues unabated 

[Deweydog]

3 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Harri's/Balz

Poop/Pee

[Iceresistance]

Just now, Anti Marine Layer said:

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Some people like totalitarianism in the name of safety or security:

Walz set up a hotline to monitor his March 2020 stay-at-home order. It led to thousands of residents snitching on their neighbors for highly dangerous activities like playing basketball or walking their dogs. Law enforcement monitored this hotline until November, well after the stay-at-home order had ended.

Would not be surprised to see some of our lefties here doing that to their neighbors. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

 

It wouldn't let me post the poop emoji from my smartphone 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Old news, but

https://freebeacon.com/coronavirus/food-and-drug-administration-drives-racial-rationing-of-covid-drugs/

Exactly what Kendi was asking for.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Do the Walz waltz

[Iceresistance]

7 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

It wouldn't let me post the poop emoji from my smartphone 

 

Oof

[Hoosier]

29 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Some people like totalitarianism in the name of safety or security:

Walz set up a hotline to monitor his March 2020 stay-at-home order. It led to thousands of residents snitching on their neighbors for highly dangerous activities like playing basketball or walking their dogs. Law enforcement monitored this hotline until November, well after the stay-at-home order had ended.

Would not be surprised to see some of our lefties here doing that to their neighbors. 

That was a strange time.  

It was known pretty early on that outdoors was safer than indoors with respect to covid.  We even had some of the extreme restrictions for a while in this state that's run by a Republican governor... playgrounds closed, basketball rims removed from backboards, etc.  Our stay at home order and mask mandate did end sooner than states that were run by Dems, but there was definitely some backlash.  The libertarian candidate for governor ended up getting like 12% or 13% in the November 2020 election, which is basically unheard of in Indiana governor's races.

[Groundhog]

11 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Some people like totalitarianism in the name of safety or security:

Walz set up a hotline to monitor his March 2020 stay-at-home order. It led to thousands of residents snitching on their neighbors for highly dangerous activities like playing basketball or walking their dogs. Law enforcement monitored this hotline until November, well after the stay-at-home order had ended.

Would not be surprised to see some of our lefties here doing that to their neighbors. 

I’ll be as bold as that they lack the self awareness to see themselves as informers to the Stasi or KGB or a partaker in a struggle session. It should scare the crap out of progressives how their tactics and language parallels that of these gawd-awful socialist governments.

Years ago I read Ordinary Men. I was almost physically sick with self-disgust after reading it. It hit home at an emotional level that not only were those men identical to me in age and status, but it hit me that I could do what they did were I in that position. To have that sink in, to play out in your mind how realistically you could sink to that depravity is horrifying. 
 

The I-trust-my-government-and-rat-out-my-neighbour crowd seem to be the same crowd that warp language and would be on board with “class guilt” in the USSR and exposing the “four olds” were they students in Mao’s China. A good test of self-awareness is “anti-racist” progressives go about with the attitude that were they in the heart of Dixie 180 years ago, they would be abolitionists. Zero self-awareness how they would be and are products of their time as the throw the “Nazi” label around.

[hawkstwelve]

Good Lord... I guess it's Walz's turn now to have the media fawn over him. 

 

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Says something when people on both sides believe it could be a tactical error. Picking someone more moderate from a key battleground state just made more sense.

But...maybe it won't matter. Maybe people will vote for Harris/Walz just cause it's not Trump, they represent change (sorta), the mainstream media is all fluff and love festy, and they come across as nicer?

Ultimately, it will still be a tough sell if the economy continues to weaken.

 

32 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Good Lord... I guess it's Walz's turn now to have the media fawn over him. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/07/business/media/media-coverage-tim-walz.html?unlocked_article_code=1.BE4.fx-A.CkxgAzV7OWf0&smid=url-share