Historic Jan '19 Cold Wave - Polar Vortex Intrusion

[gosaints]

The Canadian isn't as extreme. Only -50 windmills or so, but it holds onto them longer

[East Dubzz]

The Canadian isn't as extreme. Only -50 windmills or so, but it holds onto them longer

Those D**n Canadians all about sharing the wealth

[Niko]

WCFS here could be in the -30s. Ouch!

[Tom]

Skilling touching on the Historic potential with this cold wave....

 

[BMT]

-17 here this morning

[Tom]

Oouch....the NW burbs are really in the freezer....

 

 

Mike Hamernik

‏Verified account @MikeHamernik 3m3 minutes ago

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5:30AM: These are current temperatures, NOT the wind chill. We’ve officially crossed over into barbaric cold (-20°F). Coldest temps thus far:

-25° Harvard
-25° Crystal Lake
-24° Lake Villa

[Grizzcoat]

I see locations in SW WI are well into the -20'sF. Black River Falls,WI was -28F just after midnight. And this is before the Big Dog!!

 

NWS DSM AFD is hitting the cold very hard with "LIFE THREATENING" , school closures etc..

[Grizzcoat]

MPX actually mentioned Feb 1st -2nd 1996 with the GFS in their morning AFD.

[Madtown]

only down to -16 on the weather station this am...I am on a hill so that might be the issue...-25 at the closest airport

[gosaints]

MPX actually mentioned Feb 1st -2nd 1996 with the GFS in their morning AFD.

gfs and its ensembles are historic.

 

Euro and do a record setting potential but not quite there

[Tom]

The temp readings across the region this morning are incredibly low and we aren’t even experiencing the “mother load” of arctic cold. I’m almost convinced there will be many records shattered.

[gosaints]

The temp readings across the region this morning are incredibly low and we aren’t even experiencing the “mother load” of arctic cold. I’m almost convinced there will be many records shattered.

I lean that way to. I think a compromise between the model suites comes through

[Money]

Currently -22 with light snow

 

Wind Chil of -36

[Niko]

Temps are likely to approach the -20s for lows next week IMBY and that means record breaking low territory. Highs remaining below zero. I think this beats 2013-14 coldwave.

[james1976]

Serious wording from Des Moines!

Tuesday-Friday Life-Threatening Cold Potential...

Synopsis:
For the past week effectively, models have been hinting at a
perfect setup for dangerous cold across the Upper Midwest as an
upper low that is progged to have 500mb heights to 487 dam
establishes itself over the Great Lakes Region starting Wednesday
morning, and persisting into Thursday night. Concurrently, a huge
thermal ridge parks itself over the Intermountain west. Though
Iowa may see "junky" stratus Wednesday morning, the lack of a
purely radiational cooling night will not be enough of a mitigator
to nix the threat of dangerous cold temperatures. Long-range
models have shown decent enough run-to-run consistency and
agreement over the past several days/week to have medium-high
confidence in this cold air occurring. In summary, this is shaping
up to be the coldest air/wind chill temperatures over Iowa in
quite some time. The consecutive string of dangerously cold days
may amplify impacts.

Hazard potential:
Starting Tuesday morning and lasting possibly into Friday morning,
a prolonged period of a wind chill advisory/wind chill warning
seems very plausible. Throughout this event, the coldest
temperatures will be in northern Iowa. Air temperatures will
likely be the coldest on Wednesday morning, as values look to
bottom out in the -15 to -25 degree range. With winds of 10 or so
mph, Wind chill values near the Des Moines metro look to be in the
-25 to -35 degree range... wind chill values in northern Iowa
look to be in the -40 to -50 degree range. These are near-record
low temperatures.

Impacts:
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LIFE-THREATENING COLD AIR!!! With
wind chill values exceeding -40 degrees frostbite can occur within
10 to 15 minutes. The prolonged nature of this event, with the
cold air lasting several mornings and days, will amplify the
dangerous impacts.

Across northern Iowa, air temperatures will likely be below -10
degrees Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday mornings...
potentially putting school closures on the table as buses may
struggle to start.

Across central Iowa, including the Des Moines metro, air
temperatures will likely be near to below -10 degrees Wednesday and
Thursday mornings, putting school closure on the table for those
days. With wind chills in the -20 to -30 degree range, frostbite can
occur within 30 minutes.

Call to Action:
AGAIN, THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LIFE-THREATENING COLD AIR!!!
PREPARE NOW!!! Make sure your heating system, pipes, etc. are as
well-prepared as possible. It may be wise to stock up on groceries
between now and Tuesday so outdoor time is minimized. If you or
your family needs to be outside, make sure efforts are taken to
cover any exposed skin, especially on Wednesday. Plan for the
potential for school closures on Wendesday and possibly other days
of the week, depending on location. Monitor the latest forecast
updates.
 

[OKwx2k4]

The government may be open for business and there still isn't a wall, but the atmosphere on the southern border and southwest is walled off for the relevant future and Pacific moisture in the south is shut down for the foreseeable future, per Tom's graphic. :sighs:

 

What a cold dry snap coming. Impressive indeed. Congrats if your ground is white already when it (the severe cold) gets here. I'm going to grit it out with no snow.

[OKwx2k4]

Good Lord...

That's cold. Holy crap.

[gosaints]

-29 and -28 in the point and click for Wednesday and Thursday morning

[Niko]

My highs on Wednesday are projected to be below zero and well below zero at night. Long story short, I could be below zero for 2 days (both day n night). WCF will be in the -30s and -40s. Holy crap.

[Stormgeek]

NWS calling for the coldest temps that I have seen in my lifetime. The afternoon AFD had mention of 20-30 below and windchills possibly reaching -60. Excited to see the wrath of Minnesota winter weather!

[Money]

-29 and -28 in the point and click for Wednesday and Thursday morning

LSE AFD is something else

[Money]

MKE AFD saying that Wed will be the coldest day theyve observed in 20+ years

[james1976]

Yeah DMX is wild too. Life threatening wording again with -50 wind chills in N IA. Mon nite thru Friday we are expected to remain below 0 the entire time. Also mentioned the clipper that all models are showing for Thursday.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[OKwx2k4]

[Madtown]

-7 this am...saw international falls was -42!?!?

[Grizzcoat]

I-falls made it to -45F at least. temps -46F or colder their have only occurred 6-7 times ,, most in 1909.  Ely,MN temp sensor crapped out at -38F. Crane Lake was -44F. Easily some of the colder valleys (Embarrasss and Tower) made -50F last night. Easily.

[Tom]

Holy Moly!

 

 

 

 

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NWS Chicago Retweeted NWS Duluth

Check out these actual air temperatures (not wind chills) over northern Minnesota & northern Wisconsin this morning. International Falls set a new record low of -44F this morning, breaking the previous record by 8F! It's an air mass like this one that is taking aim on us midweek.

NWS Chicago added,

NWS DuluthVerified account @NWSduluth

Very cold in the Northland at 7AM this morning. Yes the map shows air temperatures not wind chill temperatures. Kabetogama General Store just reported -49. Thanks to all of our NWS Cooperative Observers. #mnwx #wiwx

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[Tom]

The GFS has been trending towards all-time historic cold for Chitown.  If we can score a significant snow over the next couple days, it will bode well for ORD to hit the upper -20's.

 

 

[james1976]

If I hit -34 here that may be the coldest I have ever experienced. Amazing

[Beltrami Island]

It only got to -36 officially here. The strange thing is it started warming after 3am.

What's the driest air can get naturally in the atmosphere? I feel like whatever the answer is, that is what was here last night. As if I could here the snow undergoing sublimation and then recondensing.

[snowstorm83]

NWS forecasting 0 and 5 as highs on Wednesday for Omaha and Lincoln, That's pretty significant, but makes it look like nothing compared to the -10s highs for most everyone else on this board 

[Grizzcoat]

It only got to -36 officially here. The strange thing is it started warming after 3am.

What's the driest air can get naturally in the atmosphere? I feel like whatever the answer is, that is what was here last night. As if I could here the snow undergoing sublimation and then recondensing.

Before I had kids- spent I A LOT of time ice fishing LOTW and the Rainy River. Was up after super Arctic outbreak in Feb 96' and caught 12lb eye (on the wall) among many other eyes over 30" at the rapids near Indus,Mn. Locals said it was the first time they could ever remember the rapids being fishable on foot. It was surreal... One could even cast into the swirling open water (yards from where you were ice fishing) with open water tackle and pull large walleyes out and across the ice like carp/bullheads across mud/grass in the South. Something I will never forget. 

[snowstorm83]

It's so freaky to see official NWS forecast maps with wind chills in the -60s in the Dakotas and MN. 

[Grizzcoat]

From MPX AFD yesterday afternoon ; "

To put
this cold air in perspective: if you're looking for the
stratosphere you won't have to go far Tuesday afternoon, with
forecast soundings showing the tropopause height as low as 3-4 km
AGL."

[Grizzcoat]

And the winner (so far) is Geraldon, ON, about 100 miles north of Lake Superior, at -53 F. There are two other stations in the region below -50F.

CYGQ 281200Z 34002KT 1/2SM FZFG SKC M47/M52 A3010 RMK FG3 FROIN SLP262

[Beltrami Island]

My point forecast was a low of -20 for this morning. Only -8 so far. The wind is the main reason for the difference I think. This makes it hard for me to believe it's going to be less than -30 with the kind 10-20 mph winds forecast Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

It's going to feel miserable with the wind but absolute low temps might be limited by poor radiational cooling conditions?

[Tom]

My point forecast was a low of -20 for this morning. Only -8 so far. The wind is the main reason for the difference I think. This makes it hard for me to believe it's going to be less than -30 with the kind 10-20 mph winds forecast Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

It's going to feel miserable with the wind but absolute low temps might be limited by poor radiational cooling conditions?

I recall this was a factor during the Jan '14 PV visit as winds were strong which limited how cold we "could" have gotten.  So yes, I could see temps begin a little warmer than the models are forecasting for Wed morning, however, winds will be light Thursday morning across MN and this could be the period when temps really tank.  

 

[St Paul Storm]

My point forecast was a low of -20 for this morning. Only -8 so far. The wind is the main reason for the difference I think. This makes it hard for me to believe it's going to be less than -30 with the kind 10-20 mph winds forecast Tuesday and Wednesday.

It's going to feel miserable with the wind but absolute low temps might be limited by poor radiational cooling conditions?

Forgot to say this the other day when I saw a post from you, but welcome to the forum! Always nice to have another MN member here. Good luck the next few days up there.

[Grizzcoat]

 

And the winner (so far) is Geraldon, ON, about 100 miles north of Lake Superior, at -53 F. There are two other stations in the region below -50F.

CYGQ 281200Z 34002KT 1/2SM FZFG SKC M47/M52 A3010 RMK FG3 FROIN SLP262

 

I was wrong. Rinker Lake,ONT (about 70 miles N of Thunder Bay) was -58F yday morning. ONT record I believe is -72F or -73F.

https://duluthnewstribune.com/news/weather/4562732-snow-then-dangerous-cold-week