Wxmidatlantic Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 Cold air and bitter winds seem inevitable. This Will produce a strong cold frontal passage. At this time precipitation types and amounts vary from 1-4 inches. Potential exist for a heavy squall with frontal passage. Temperatures will bottom out from 0-5F along the corridor. North and West of I-95 could see temperatures -5 to -10F. Updates to follow. Max snowfall map from CMS below. GFS 1-2, GFSV3 below. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 Welcome! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 This looks to be quite a cold blast coming up for sure also it Would be funny that Now that DT is going with no big storms in the next few weeks if we ended up getting a big one 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 12z Euro showing 2-3 inches of snow with frontal wave, Washington to Baltimore. Starts as rain then quickly changes over. Temps drop to 10F Wednesday morning but recover to 27 ahead of secondary front. This model showing low of 4F at BWI, Thursday morning. Highs of 11F NW wind 24mph, gust to 40. That cold man... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 18z NAM trying to develop low pressure center along front, 500mb trof amplification.This would bring a period of heavy snow along the I-95 corridor. Interesting. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 26, 2019 Report Share Posted January 26, 2019 The operational GFS is the most bearish on this one, but I wouldn’t expect it to handle frontogenic forcing as well, especially at this range. I do want to see what the 3km NAM projects, but it won’t be in range until tomorrow. I trust it more than the 12km version, which can (occasionally) have state independent convective biases. I’m sure something will happen. Based on my 26 years of experience living here, Arctic fronts like this generally don’t cross quietly. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Surface observations behind first cold front. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 12z NAM is on-board with 1-2 inches of snow with frontal squall and residual overrunning. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 Tuesday is shaping up to be an exciting weather day for Maryland, Virginia, along and NW of I-95. No major changes at 12z, except for more agreement. Below are GFS snowfall maps and GFSV3 temps Thursday morning. Models are trending quicker, with a Tuesday afternoon show... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2019 Report Share Posted January 27, 2019 -2 degrees here according to the FV3. Just a bit nippy. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 I miss living in Philly.Move back, brother. We’d love to have you. For what it’s worth, we’ve had a mega-HECS-filled winter during every 11yr solar minimum going back to at least the 1880s, so the odds favor either 2019/20 or 2020/21 being epic. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 It seems there will be a lot of, "nowcasting," with the Arctic frontal passage. Still uncertainty with thermal profiles just ahead, and precip onset times. This morning dewpoints are diving in Maryland. The dynamics involved with these type of air masses can produce local anomalies in precip fields. These can produce local precip maximums. I-95 will be the deviding line. Areas just south and east are involved. This will be a close one. 2-4 north and west, 1-3 just south and east. That's how much will fall. Accumulations will depend on rates and surface temps. Cars and grass for sure in the metro. Behind front temps will drop rapidly with a flash freeze of residual moisture. Black ice the main threat. Outside activities on Thursday should be limited to those who have no choice. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Yeah, I heard the wind pick up from the NW and watched the dewpoint crater from 30*F to 10*F. I wonder how much lower it will go..still mixing pretty good here. The NWS forecast was for ~ 20*F right now, so we’re underneath that by a solid 10 degrees. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Dewpoint 8F at BWI. This will help form an insitu CAD over Maryland that some models have been hinting. Impressive warm nose in central Indiana. Modified Arctic air continues to funnel down the east side of Appalachian Mountains. Surface obs in eastern Ohio will be a good bellwether for 500mb amplification this afternoon. Good to be in the game.... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Dewpoint down to 7F at BWI. The new satellite images from NOAA are simply awesome... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Definitely agree re: in-situ CAD wedge, assuming it doesn’t advect out overnight/into tomorrow morning ahead of the precip shield. That said, models usually underestimate it, if anything, and the trends have been colder/wetter across guidance, as LWX highlighted in their morning AFD. I’m interested in this one. Nice early catch! 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 As of 11:34AM, I’m still at 30.2*F/8*F with a N/NE wind and a cirrostratus deck filtering most of the insolation..only 211W/m^2 making it through according to my solar radiation sensor..and it’s peak heating right now. Certainly much colder and drier than forecasted (so far). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Dewpoint 3F at BWI. Temps in the mid 40's in SE Ohio. Slight amplification. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Expect skies to clear this afternoon. Clear skies at sunset and radiational cooling. Things look good for a winter event. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Euro and GFS in accord 3-4 inches, north and west of I-95.... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Temps, dewpoint, and relative humidity at my station today graphed below. Interesting how the dewpoint drop occurred in two distinct steps (tends to do that a lot here). Station can be found on CWOP/Mesowest at this link: https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=F3819&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Water vapor image depicting mid level trof nicely. Radar depicts Overrunning of CAD. There has been some discussion obout overcoming a warm ground. The ground was frozen yesterday, and it is still frozen this morning. That is now a non-factor. DC to Philly seems to be the sweet spot for accumulating snow. Someone along the corridor could get 4-5 inches. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Hot off the press.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Warm advection occurring in earnest early this AM, currently at 31.5/25, up from 27/15 before the cloud deck moved in. Awaiting precip, but some light returns are beginning to manifest aloft on LWX’s higher beams. How much of the early/midday precip falls as snow vs sleet/zr/rain is the question in my mind (the late day precip will almost certainly be snow). I’m not as bearish as LWX on this one even with the S/SE winds to start the day. The airmass going into this is decent, all things considered, with a favorable diurnal start time. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Few flakes now, west Baltimore.... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Precip has been underwhelming thus far, and most modeling doesn’t get it cranking until ~ 12-1pm. That said, even with surface temps above freezing, we’ve been getting off and on “snizzle” here even under the lightest of returns, so I’m not sure how much will actually end up falling as rain (if any), locally speaking. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Yea, it's going to hit all at one time. Surface low trying to form near Greer SC. That should be what we need. NC mountains are about to get slammed. When the front breaches the mountains this wave will rocket NE. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Yea, it's going to hit all at one time. Surface low trying to form near Greer SC. That should be what we need. NC mountains are about to get slammed. When the front breaches the mountains this wave will rocket NE.Yeah, it’s gonna be an anafrontal type deal I think, w/ the majority of QPF now modeled behind the cold front. If I’m extrapolating correctly, then light precip will begin to blossom between 11:30 and 12:30, w/ the front reaching the I-95 corridor ~ 2pm, which is when the heaviest stuff will begin to fall. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 All of sudden skies have darkened. Looks like first significant band about to hit. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 You’re in a much better spot than me for this one, I think. Had intermittent snizzle this morning but it’s pretty obvious we’re gonna miss out on the early part of the isentropic lift/jetmax. Will have to wait for the front itself. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Pop some corn, it's almost show time. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 GFS holding firm. NAM no help inside 24hrs. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 The main shield of precipitation is moving up into Central Virginia now, just about into Charlottesville now. Should really fill in over the next hour. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Starting to see a few fatties... Visibility 4 miles S-IP- Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 The front has breeched the mountains. Radar blowing up in northern Virginia.. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Pouring sleet here with a few white missiles mixed in. 37.9/32. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Visibility now 3 miles S- Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 We have accumulating snow! Visibility 2 miles.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Down to 1S- I think we could have moderate snow soon... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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