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Jan- February Mid-long Range Discussion


Wxmidatlantic

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The one trend that could be problematic for us winter weenies (if it continues) is the delaying of the start time until after sunrise.

Assuming the system structure remains as is, there shouldn’t be too many thermal issues if precipitation starts ~ 9-10AM, but anything later allows insolation to get more work in. We’re two months removed from the solstice below 40N..the Sun is definitely a factor now.

also I also wonder if the models are erroring in the opposite fashion then they have been this winter.as the data seems to be catching up to the fact that the mjo maybe going into phases 8 through 1 along with the growing - sol if so perhaps we see a big ending in early march before the pattern gos to a true spring one mid march and after.but would be ironic how all winter models showed cold and storms and it never varifed and when they were not showing cold a few days ago and we finally get it :lol: would be a fitting end of this winter

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I thinkTexas will be on the usual cold rain train for our winter.

 

But I’ll take rain as we could be crying for it this summer.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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06Z run looks good. GFS a lot better with the coastal trof and ridge placement.

 

All models have depicted a heavy precip band, the GFS depicts a very heavy snow band producing 12+ inches of snow. This band has been migrating north last 48 hrs. This looks convective, so a little thunder and cloud to cloud lighting not out of the question. Still a while to go.

 

Curiosity Phil, you said you were ready for thunderstorms...

 

Images below.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

 

gfs_asnow_neus_20.png

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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12Z NAM is running with heavy precip banding. Heavy snow, then sleet and freezing rain. NAM holds CAD till end of run with weak coastal low. Some of the ptype totals are epic.

 

If you divide them in half, your talking a significant Winter Storm.

 

Images below:

 

 

 

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

 

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_51.png

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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FWIW while the 12km NAM was much too cold here for the last CAD event, the 4km NAM and the GFS both busted warm (the former surprised me, as it’s usually pretty good with CAD).

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I think we might have one more left in us. The pattern progression, to this point, doesn’t jive with those that have historically produced snowless Mar/Apr periods.

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A system in the Thursday-Friday window to watch. Looks like another high plains blizzard, then, much below normal temperatures.

 

The latest I can remember a major snowstorm in March was the "Superstorm" March 13-16 '93.

 

Blizzard warnings were issued for Atlanta Ga. First time in it's history.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

 

gfs_T2m_us_30.png

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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Day 5-10 still look good for potential winter weather. Euro most aggressive. Nevertheless, near record cold NW and northern tier.

 

A dynamic pattern developing. Temps 8-12F below average. With late season Polar Vortex.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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Looks like it is game on for DC/Bal. Thursday night looks like snow/sleet. 1-2 most likely. This system lingers setting up strong CAD into Saturday with lingering snow/rain showers.

 

The main event is Sunday/Monday. Epic cold Midwest/High planes digs south and east. Subtropical high noses into eastern Gulf. Wave develops off Texas coast. Good formula. It is just a timing issue.

 

namconus_asnow_neus_22.png

 

gfs_T2m_neus_22.png

A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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12Z run sets up a band of moderate to heavy snow Thursday night. Accumulations 3-5". This would nesesitate a Winter Storm Watch. I'm sure the mets will wait for another run.

 

The Sunday/Monday system is borderline. If 500mb trof would wait 8 hrs before amplification, I-95 corridor would get boomed. Plenty of time.

 

nam3km_asnow_neus_61.png

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A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

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