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Current La Niña is Over


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Many will celebrate. Especially farmers and ranchers.  This has been a long unpleasant road.   
No one want flooding and such but drought affects every corner of our lives.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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One of the wettest periods of recent California weather has occurred during the waning days of the La Nina just ended. Or has the decision to declare La Nina at end really driven by the robust wet weather? Since early fall, California rainfall fell in defiance of the expected La Nina drought continuation. We can see that the Pacific high has abated and moved way south allowing storm tracks and ARs to move in a unrestricted west to east passage over California.The Pacific wet has moved south from British Columbia/Alaska panhandle.  In my opinion, the Pacific coast rainfall has not increased; it simply left the Northern Pacific coast for the Southern coast. Is the new and very active solar cycle 25 the cause? 

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The shift would certainly be creating a great deal of hardship.  Southern Calif simply is not up to the deluge.  Mudslide season is next.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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On 3/14/2023 at 7:06 AM, AquariusRadar said:

Or has the decision to declare La Nina at end really driven by the robust wet weather? Since early fall, California rainfall fell in defiance of the expected La Nina drought continuation.

ENSO (aka El Niño vs. La Niña) is all about temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Rainfall in California is correlated to it, but the correlation is not 100%, and is not used to determine in what phase of the oscillation we are in. (There have also been El Niños that have been dry for California.)

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Global warming is very slowly melting the Antarctic ice cap. Opinion: The fresh melt waters of the Antarctic make for an increasingly cold Southern ocean. These cold surface waters join the Humboldt current as it moves up the South American coast to the equator and out into the central Pacific creating an almost permanent La Nina condition. La Nina will become dominate and El Nino increasingly rare. That means more drought for many areas of the world.

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  • 1 month later...

Scientists continue to predict a strong El Nino condition for late 2023. The one of the contributing scientists in this article El Nino prediction advertises the prediction as "daring"? 

https://phys.org/news/2023-05-stage-strong-el-nio-late.html#:~:text=The predictions point to a moderate strength El,a stronger El Niño coming in late 2023.

The satellite view indicates some increasing ITCZ thunderstorm activity as expected this time of year. The near surface clouds south of Hawaii continue the normal east to west travel. Tremendous heat in Southeast Asia could be the prelude to a strong El Nino if the heated surface water moves east to the central/east pacific. I still think the warmer waters will be blunted by cold water of the Humboldt current, making for a mild El Nino, hopefully quelling the drought in Kansas. 

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  • 6 months later...

Well here we are deep in the ENSO cycle and El Niño is producing strong atmospheric rivers for the PNW. Major flooding now on the Oregon coast. The eastern desert remains dry. Aquariusradar could be used to lessen the rainfall on the coast and result in more snow for the Cascades, although the volcanic peaks are probably getting a good share of snow. But better than that, if the moisture could be held aloft with Aquariusradar, that would mean more rain/snow for the inter-mountain west and the Rockies and maybe some of the Colorado drainage. But not very likely to ever happen soon as technology is treated as strange and dangerous in the current political season. The exception to this is rain making-weather modification with silver iodine compounds spewed from airplanes that hasn't proven very successful. The natural cycle of floods and drought continue.

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