February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Total snow just for Friday through Saturday at 10 a.m.

 

I appreciate you always posting maps for us in real time. Especially the EURO maps which are harder to come by.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a total of 14 inches of snow for PDX over the next 9 days... 17 inches in Troutdale.

 

5 inches in Seattle... although some of that is happening now.  

[Jesse]

Euro looked like it wanted to undercut days 8 and 9, but keeps the offshore block strong at day 10. What a great run.

[Front Ranger]

What a great looking Euro run. Especially in light of what is already happening up north today. Hopefully the other models get on board. 12z GFS was pretty lame for the weekend, but the ensembles looked better.

 

Thought I heard rumblings about the GEM looking better this weekend too. Anyone care to verify? Away from computer at the moment.

The FV3 was quite snowy for end of the week for a lot of people, with a reinforcing shot of cold.

 

Considering the FV3 and Euro have had the best handle of the pattern to this point, things look very promising.

[TT-SEA]

[Tyler Mode]

Rain at PDX!

[Jesse]

Good setup for a FLASH FREEZE.

 

I think that’s the first time that term has been used during this episode of winter weather. Has to be a good sign.

Also the first time in a while it could be used to describe actual weather outside of its usual snarky context. Flash freeze would definitely apply to what the Fraser outflow zones saw yesterday.

[Deweydog]

It’s a snarkidemic!!!

 

Parents, please start vaccinating!

[Gradient Keeper]

Amazing 12z ECMWF run. Day 4 was nearly identical 500mb pattern as the 12z GEM which was snowy and VERY cold. Another thing to point out is the 00z EPS last night showed that pattern setting up around Day 5.5 to 6 and this run moved timing ahead setting it up Day 4.5 to 5. This is an extremely encouraging sign. Onto 00z!

 

18z NAM in 36 minutes

[FroYoBro]

Good setup for a FLASH FREEZE.

 

I think that’s the first time that term has been used during this episode of winter weather. Has to be a good sign.

 

Nah, I saw Jim use it yesterday. #classic

[Deweydog]

Also the first time in a while it could be used to describe actual weather outside of its usual snarky context. Flash freeze would definitely apply to what the Fraser outflow zones saw yesterday.

Exactly. Struck me as odd.

[Jesse]

Rain at PDX!

At least it’s precipitating!

[Prairiedog]

D

 

Well all weather happens during seasons...

Dang, how did I miss that point.  LOL  It just seems that what we are experiencing and the hints the models are showing not sure what their banking on?  Climo?

There's some warm members showing up but plenty of cold.  Just trying to match their thoughts with what I see. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=135728&lid=ENS&bw=

[Deweydog]

Nah, I saw Jim use it yesterday. #classic

Well D**n...

[Timmy]

At least it’s precipitating!

that’s one ingredient

[Deweydog]

Pretty breezy in Kelso...

[Timmy]

Pdx-dls gradient is finally flat!

[Perturbed Member]

15% chunky rain mixing in!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z ECMWF shows a total of 14 inches of snow for PDX over the next 9 days... 17 inches in Troutdale.

 

5 inches in Seattle... although some of that is happening now.

Thanks snow much.

[James Jones]

Seeing the occasional flake mix in. Score!!!!!!

[Jesse]

Pretty breezy in Kelso...

Sharp wind shift line could help a bit with lift.

[Timmy]

She is my daughter, no question!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like the precip band moved through.  Going to get back up into the 40s today so still just 2 days with highs in the 30s for Springfield.  Worst ever to this point.

[FroYoBro]

Good thing this super strong band of moisture is coming in at the coldest part of the day! 

[North_County]

I was just checking out traffic cams... amazing how little snow there is north of Bellingham. It looks great from Bellingham southward but north of town there is basically no snow and just howling wind. That would suck. Too much outflow and not enough moisture. I know it works in their favor sometimes when its raining in Bellingham and snowing in Lynden.

 

Strong outflow vs. weak outflow. The best snow events in north Whatcom seem to be when the outflow is too weak to turn Bellingham over to snow, but just cold enough to hammer us up here.

 

This event is just too cold and too dry for good snow along the border. We had snow at the leading edge of the outflow, but nothing since the wind really started cranking Sunday afternoon.

[Deweydog]

Sharp wind shift line could help a bit with lift.

Eh, Kelso is a north wind spot. This reminds me a lot of November 2006. I had to drive north early that Monday morning and I hit a wall of northerlies around Kalama. They were absolutely screaming between Kelso to just south of Castle Rock. Never really materialized at all to the south. Maybe this time will be different...

[kokaneekidz]

I cannot believe my eyes . The snow was supposed to head west and south, yet now it is backfilling into Mukilteo- South Everett again. WOWZERS

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Amazing 12z ECMWF run. Day 4 was nearly identical 500mb pattern as the 12z GEM which was snowy and VERY cold. Another thing to point out is the 00z EPS last night showed that pattern setting up around Day 5.5 to 6 and this run moved timing ahead setting it up Day 4.5 to 5. This is an extremely encouraging sign. Onto 00z!

 

18z NAM in 36 minutes

Yeah, lots of great signs right now. Let's continue this trend into tonight.

[Deweydog]

Good thing this super strong band of moisture is coming in at the coldest part of the day!

Sunset in six hours! Maybe Rob could do a countdown.

[BLI snowman]

Northerlies look like they develop around 9-10am down here. It'll be a slow process.

 

Might not mean anything but PDX has developed light north winds.

 

 

Right on schedule 

[Deweydog]

I’m going to imagine that focused line between The Dalles and Hood River is the Arctic front.

[Geos]

 

Something tells me Portland will see there's soon.

[Esquimalt]

Yay Victoria gets nothing

[Geos]

Got a little more accumulation. 

[TT-SEA]

Based on what has happened up here... I am going to go ahead and give myself a little credit for this call. 

 

 

If I am wrong... then I am wrong and I blew it.   No excuses.   

 

I strongly believe its coming in the Feb 1-5 period.    

 

[Timmy]

Front has hit kalama now...

[kokaneekidz]

Well deserved ATTABOY

Based on what has happened up here... I am going to go ahead and give myself a little credit for this call. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Based on what has happened up here... I am going to go ahead and give myself a little credit for this call. 

Yeah, that was a gutsy call but you nailed it.

[Deweydog]

Front has hit kalama now...

It’s like a homeless guy walking down the right shoulder of I-5.

[Deweydog]

Based on what has happened up here... I am going to go ahead and give myself a little credit for this call.